Very sound reasoning. My question would be whether you have taken into account the love for heated seats that most people develop? I now have them for both front and back seats in my car. They just make people happier. I also think that if you have this car for a decade you may enjoy the larger battery for out of town soccer trips/swim meets/ect if your family grows.
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ElSupreme's decision
- Thread starter Kipernicus
- Start date
Lucky for me my current car:
does 0-60 in 6.9.
has cloth seats (awesome cloth seats!)
has no seat heaters
has no sunroof
has base (but decent) stereo
has no navigation
So everything will get better when I get the Model S (except maybe the seats, I love my cloth). And my current car is also the nicest car I have ever owned!
Yeah one thing that the 40kWh pack wouldn't do is get me to bike races. I haven't done but a handful since 2009. But is something that I really like doing, at least when I am in decent bicycle shape.
Mycroft
Life happens
Take a look at these Georgia scenic drives:
Best Scenic Drives in Georgia
Think about those and think about spending a few days slowly driving the Blue Ridge Parkway in silent luxury!
After pondering those, I think 85kWh sounds pretty darn good!
Best Scenic Drives in Georgia
Think about those and think about spending a few days slowly driving the Blue Ridge Parkway in silent luxury!
After pondering those, I think 85kWh sounds pretty darn good!
If you're going to keep this car for 10 years you should seriously consider getting the the 85 kWh car. While you might not use Supercharging that much, you'll have that freedom. I'd get the tech package for the upgraded headlights alone and maybe the upgraded stereo. If you don't need leather then that's a good option to skip although I haven't seen the Tesla cloth seats and it doesn't have seat heaters as you pointed out. I like you're go big or go home approach so sounds like 85 kWh is the way to go if the finances work out and the upgrade doesn't cause any unnecessary financial strain.
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roblab
Active Member
Interestingly enough, I was at Santana Row, and they did not have a brown car last week. I had parked my chocolate brown Model S in front of a silver Roadster, and people were taking pictures. You may not have seen "their" brown car.
Secondly, our Pano roof does not have any wind noise, is not hot, does not let in excess light. It is one of the best features. It is huge, like a convertible. It also gives more head room, in case you ever show it off to tall people, or ar tall yourself.
WE LOVE THIS CAR! You will be amazed at where you think you want to go, when you don't have to worry about range, like taking a side trip to town after coming back from the city... "Heck yeah, I still have 100 miles of range", instead of, "Well, maybe not, since I only have 30 miles of range". Just from the standpoint of Range Anxiety, the 85 kWh battery is worth it.
Secondly, our Pano roof does not have any wind noise, is not hot, does not let in excess light. It is one of the best features. It is huge, like a convertible. It also gives more head room, in case you ever show it off to tall people, or ar tall yourself.
WE LOVE THIS CAR! You will be amazed at where you think you want to go, when you don't have to worry about range, like taking a side trip to town after coming back from the city... "Heck yeah, I still have 100 miles of range", instead of, "Well, maybe not, since I only have 30 miles of range". Just from the standpoint of Range Anxiety, the 85 kWh battery is worth it.
I agree. If you're perfectly content with the Model S being only a city car for the most part, the 40 kWh would work great and is the exact same car basically as the bigger pack versions. If you plan on making it your primary car for almost all trips (maybe rent a car once a year if you're going to drive 500 plus miles and no Superchargers are in place at that point) then consider the bigger packs.
Arnold Panz
Model Sig 304, VIN 542
This has the added benefit of not only saving you tons of money over the year, but will be MUCH healthier as well!! My wife and I rarely eat out, not because we don't enjoy it, but when you eat healthy home cooked food for awhile, eating out makes you feel terrible.
spatterso911
P100DL - Raven
One of the most compelling arguments for getting the 85 kWh car yet! I think you have a good case for stepping into the 85, ElSupreme!!
Hmm... lots of interesting and good arguments skimming over this thread. I'm a bit more conservative and would say go with what you can comfortably afford. I think the 40kWh car is a good value and likely the bigger battery pack cars are effectively subsidizing its cost, which is why Tesla seems to be disincentivizing people from buying it.
Given that you are a "buy and hold" car owner, I agree that the 85 is the right call. We know that all battery ranges decay, and so buying the 85 unlinked you from the need of buying a new battery for a long time. While we all hope that Tesla will be around for decades and offering great battery upgrades in eight years, we don't know.
Go big or go home!
Go big or go home!
Chas F
Model S 60kWh #P6396
Ok, my turn.
El Supreme: I have to agree with doug. Luckily, I haven't been convinced to "go big or go home". I keep thinking "go big and go broke".
Being an engineer with years of experience with COTS product life cycles, I believe we at the beginning of the technology curve for EV batteries. That would mean the batteries are currently about as expensive as they are ever going to be. I also believe that the coming impact Tesla will have on the EV revolution will spur competition and will subsequently accelerate the downward slope of the EV battery tech curve. I can't stand the thought of buying a car WORTH $80K today only to see my friends buy a comparably equipped EV for a time-adjusted $50K in 7 or 8 years. I can't totally avoid that scenario but I think I can minimize it by buying the 40KW pack.
I started with the 40KW as my default, stretched to the 60KW because of the super charging, range, and performance benefits but came back to the 40KW after announcement of the $2K up charge. It wasn't till then that I realized that I would have been somewhat uncomfortable at the much higher debt level. Now I can feel comfortable and not have to re-calculate my finances if I decide this weekend that I really want the tech package after all.
I figure in 8 years, I may be able to upgrade to a 500 mile battery for $10K and drive right by the Tesla charging stations for most trips. Until then, I'm OK with renting a new, comfortable ICE for the dozen or so trips to NC. Sure it would be nice to drive my new Model S on those occasions, but not an extra $12K nice.
I already know that I'm keeping the car for for at least 10 years (probably more like 15!) so expect to drive the TCO down to a justifiable level. At 15 years, i don't think resale value will be much of a consideration for me either. At that point, I can parlay the saved net worth into the "cool" car tech of 2028.
Since the range of the 40KW will be more than enough for 95% of my driving (I've done a lot of range analysis around town for the last several months), I doubt that I'll ever feel regret about getting the smaller battery.
Anyway, that is my rationale for what it's worth. I've made so many assumptions that it may not be worth much. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Either way, I know I'll enjoy at least the next 5 years.
El Supreme: I have to agree with doug. Luckily, I haven't been convinced to "go big or go home". I keep thinking "go big and go broke".
Being an engineer with years of experience with COTS product life cycles, I believe we at the beginning of the technology curve for EV batteries. That would mean the batteries are currently about as expensive as they are ever going to be. I also believe that the coming impact Tesla will have on the EV revolution will spur competition and will subsequently accelerate the downward slope of the EV battery tech curve. I can't stand the thought of buying a car WORTH $80K today only to see my friends buy a comparably equipped EV for a time-adjusted $50K in 7 or 8 years. I can't totally avoid that scenario but I think I can minimize it by buying the 40KW pack.
I started with the 40KW as my default, stretched to the 60KW because of the super charging, range, and performance benefits but came back to the 40KW after announcement of the $2K up charge. It wasn't till then that I realized that I would have been somewhat uncomfortable at the much higher debt level. Now I can feel comfortable and not have to re-calculate my finances if I decide this weekend that I really want the tech package after all.
I figure in 8 years, I may be able to upgrade to a 500 mile battery for $10K and drive right by the Tesla charging stations for most trips. Until then, I'm OK with renting a new, comfortable ICE for the dozen or so trips to NC. Sure it would be nice to drive my new Model S on those occasions, but not an extra $12K nice.
I already know that I'm keeping the car for for at least 10 years (probably more like 15!) so expect to drive the TCO down to a justifiable level. At 15 years, i don't think resale value will be much of a consideration for me either. At that point, I can parlay the saved net worth into the "cool" car tech of 2028.
Since the range of the 40KW will be more than enough for 95% of my driving (I've done a lot of range analysis around town for the last several months), I doubt that I'll ever feel regret about getting the smaller battery.
Anyway, that is my rationale for what it's worth. I've made so many assumptions that it may not be worth much. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Either way, I know I'll enjoy at least the next 5 years.
If you're talking about the SuperCharger stations, you would be driving past them forever. Upgrading the battery later does not add SC capability. That is part of the car's structure, and can only be "added" in the original build. So you would have that (hypothetical, but probable) 500 miles plus whatever AC charging can conveniently deliver then.
I can think of many reasons, including:
1) Cost of ownership advantage improves dramatically over time (ref. teslarumors.com)
2) Battery decline has less effect
3) Battery warranty is unlimited for 85s
4) Options are valuable, and who knows what needs or opportunities will be 10 yrs +?
5) etc.
that sounds pricey, but many people do it.
My wife and I cook everything. It is still a little expensive since it is all natural/organic - but way cheaper than eating out 2-3 times a week + 10X better. Recently started making sourdough every couple of days to share w/ friends. Cook urself - tastes much better + it isn't crap
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+++ ! < .01% of eating out is 'good' DIY!
I was thinking about it like a computer or other quickly depreciating asset. Don't overbuy now because it is going to be worth so much less in the future. I was debating between the 60 and 85 and ultimately went with the 60 because it fits my needs now. I assume that in a few years if I want something bigger I'll be able to buy it for a whole lot less.
That makes sense and you're probably right about being able to upgrade in a few years. In 8 years the 85 kWh pack may go as far as the 60kWh pack which is a good range for me. I'm assuming battery upgrades will be available but if not, the bigger pack will still have enough range.
That is all true but the performance S is ultimately better than most other vehicles to date. So although it will be better in the future Tesla version, it is still going to kick ass over most cars produced to now. And potentially upgradable.
Chas F
Model S 60kWh #P6396
My point was that I would expect to not need super charging because of the increased range, assuming battery tech is substantially different than it is today. That goes for charging capabilities too.
My experience has been that there's almost nothing that is not upgradable once third parties come into the market. A new inverter here, upgraded wiring there and voila, 500+ mile range. A quick Google to see how many options are now available for cars built in the last 8 years should yield pages. Tesla is a unique car however may not be so much in 8 to 10 years.
All completely hypothetical though. Just having fun speculating.
The comparisons to computers isn't on point.
- CPUs in computers improved dramatically every 18 months between 1980 and 2010. By contrast, AC electric motors have been around for over a century; at best, expect small incremental improvements on the Tesla motor.
- RAM and other memory in computers also followed Moore's Law. At great expense, I upgraded the IBM XT I bought in 1985 from its base RAM of 256KB to 640KB, and the hard drive from 10MB to 20MB! Battery technology, however, is not going to follow Moore's Law. While there might be breakthroughs, e.g. lithium-air, people have been working on making a better battery for over a century; the primary use of batteries isn't automotive, so it's not valid to say that "we're just getting started on EV battery technology." Again, expect incremental gains, not dramatic Moore's-Law type advances.
- The touchscreen isn't likely to improve dramatically. It's the product of a long stream of innovation; while it may be first-of-its-kind in the auto world, it's building on decades of work in other fields. The dramatic improvements will be in the control software, which can be updated on shipped cars.
- In contrast to computers, where no one much cares about the physical form factor and case, a large part of the Model S value is in "balance of plant," e.g. the chassis, fittings, stereo, and so forth, which is all perfectly standard automotive gear.
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