ElSupreme's decision

[ElSupreme]

Being an engineer with years of experience with COTS product life cycles, I believe we at the beginning of the technology curve for EV batteries. That would mean the batteries are currently about as expensive as they are ever going to be. ... comparably equipped EV for a time-adjusted $50K in 7 or 8 years.

I think this is quite likely, but not certain. This is one of the reasons why I have been on the 40kWh team for so long.

I started with the 40KW as my default, stretched to the 60KW because of the super charging, range, and performance benefits but came back to the 40KW after announcement of the $2K up charge. It wasn't till then that I realized that I would have been somewhat uncomfortable at the much higher debt level. Now I can feel comfortable and not have to re-calculate my finances if I decide this weekend that I really want the tech package after all.

I went through this thought process almost exactly.

I figure in 8 years, I may be able to upgrade to a 500 mile battery for $10K and drive right by the Tesla charging stations for most trips. Until then, I'm OK with renting a new, comfortable ICE for the dozen or so trips to NC. Sure it would be nice to drive my new Model S on those occasions, but not an extra $12K nice.

This also was my original plan.

I'll enjoy at least the next 5 years.

And here lies my new (self-created, with a little help from my dad) dilemma. I want to buy a car I will keep for a decade, or more. I feel that right now an 85kWh Model S will do that. I am not sure that a 40kWh will. Will I be able to purchase a larger battery? This has always been assumed around here, but I don't know about what happens down the line. Will the 40kWh battery degrade? I will putting a lot of miles on the car. Will battery prices get lower quickly? I really think this will happen, but I am not certain. And with cool new batteries, will they work in the Model S? I am somewhat doubtful.

If you're talking about the SuperCharger stations, you would be driving past them forever. Upgrading the battery later does not add SC capability. That is part of the car's structure, and can only be "added" in the original build. So you would have that (hypothetical, but probable) 500 miles plus whatever AC charging can conveniently deliver then.

I honestly thought supercharging was just a motion so Tesla could say "Look you can road trip" but not have that much functionality. But then watching the reveal I realized it is really a game changer. It legitimately allows real 500 mile road trips. Or 1000 over two days. It gets you to about 60% of what an ICE can do. If they get installed I would drive my 85kWh on road trips up to about 500 miles. And beyond that I want to fly anyway.

Why do you think the 85kwh makes sense if you're going to keep the car longer?

Because I am fairly certain I will be able to keep the 85kWh longer (more battery life, less range crunch as capacity drops). If I keep it more than 2 years longer than a 40kWh car it will cost less per year (assuming no major maintenance costs, beyond the $600/12,000). And on top of that I gain more utility (drives to the N GA mountains, which are beautiful) and 8 years of unlimited battery warranty.

My point was that I would expect to not need super charging because of the increased range, assuming battery tech is substantially different than it is today. That goes for charging capabilities too.

My experience has been that there's almost nothing that is not upgradable once third parties come into the market. A new inverter here, upgraded wiring there and voila, 500+ mile range. A quick Google to see how many options are now available for cars built in the last 8 years should yield pages. Tesla is a unique car however may not be so much in 8 to 10 years.

All completely hypothetical though. Just having fun speculating.

I think supercharging is the better route, you spend less capital, as you rarely need more than 150 miles in range anyway. Besides if I drive my 500 mile Model S on a road trip how do I recharge 500 miles at my grandparents house? It would take about 17 hours (assuming they don't have a 30A dryer, which would take 28 hours, which I think they do).

 

[Chas F]

Besides if I drive my 500 mile Model S on a road trip how do I recharge 500 miles at my grandparents house? It would take about 17 hours (assuming they don't have a 30A dryer, which would take 28 hours, which I think they do).

Good point...

 

[dsm363]

Buying a car that is likely to meet your needs for the entire time you own the car is the conservative way to do it. If in 8 years Tesla has a 500 mil pack upgrade and you think you'll keep the car for another 8 years if possible then you could do that. If not, you could sell the car and buy a new one in 10 years maybe.

 

[ElSupreme]

Buying a car that is likely to meet your needs for the entire time you own the car is the conservative way to do it. If in 8 years Tesla has a 500 mil pack upgrade and you think you'll keep the car for another 8 years if possible then you could do that. If not, you could sell the car and buy a new one in 10 years maybe.

That's the point I am at now. If I buy a 40kWh car now and the battery lasts 6-8 years (~150,000 miles), and then have to be replaced due to loss in capacity. When I am up to replace the battery what will I do? If I can put a 150kWh pack in there, great! This is exactly what I was thinking before. But if I can only put another 40kWh in there, well crap, I might as well buy another car with supercharging.

If I buy an 85kWh car now. I expect the battery to last 10-12 years (~200,000 miles) but still have enough capacity to cruise around. Then I can buy a new battery, or a new car. As I won't feel any desire to upgrade.

My real dilemma is should I try to pay for 10-12 years of car in 6 years, or should I try to pay for 6-8 years of car in 6 years. It hurts to pay more, but in the long run it is the better decision. And well I am confident that I won't want another car for 10 years. The 40kWh has two limitations, the life of the battery before loss of capacity requires a new battery pack, and road trip range. The 85kWh shouldn't have either limitation.

And going through my finances it appears that I purchase a lot more toys than I had previously thought. And my wedding/honeymoon also masked a lot of money from me. This wasn't a concern until I found out that a $90,000 (post taxes and fees, pre rebate) car is really within my grasp. The 40kWh wouldn't really be a stretch financially (it was in my imagined budget). The 85kWh is still a little bit of a stretch.

Maybe I will drive the car on Saturday and hate it. That would make this decision so much easier! :tongue:

 

[kevincwelch]

Maybe I will drive the car on Saturday and hate it.

Yeah, I'm guessing that won't be the case.

My wife went to the store a complete skeptic a few weeks ago. She said the car was too big, etc. She drove it. She was sold after that test drive. Made buying it a lot easier for me. (Now I no longer have to hear the Devil's Advocate nonsense in my house anymore!)

 

[VolkerP]

going through my finances it appears that I purchase a lot more toys than I had previously thought.

Try to spend a week in your new cash preserving mode - no meals outside, bring your lunch in a box, all that stuff you mentioned. Then sit together with your wife and ask "is it worth doing that?" :wink:

 

[dsm363]

Try to spend a week in your new cash preserving mode - no meals outside, bring your lunch in a box, all that stuff you mentioned. Then sit together with your wife and ask "is it worth doing that?" :wink:

That's great advice. Don't change your life totally around for a car though but if a few small changes to things make the car payment reasonable, go for it!

 

[Tempus]

Try to spend a week in your new cash preserving mode - no meals outside, bring your lunch in a box, all that stuff you mentioned. Then sit together with your wife and ask "is it worth doing that?" :wink:

we did actually almost exactly that. Small lifestyle changes (bringing lunch to work 2 or 3 times a week, making coffee in the morning at home instead of going to starbucks every day), and then dropping $1000 a month into my savings account to simulate car payments. it's funny how easy it is to adapt to a new reality if the money isn't just sitting in the checking account. *grin*

 

[dsm363]

we did actually almost exactly that. Small lifestyle changes (bringing lunch to work 2 or 3 times a week, making coffee in the morning at home instead of going to starbucks every day), and then dropping $1000 a month into my savings account to simulate car payments. it's funny how easy it is to adapt to a new reality if the money isn't just sitting in the checking account. *grin*

I bought my own espresso machine and grinder about 8 years ago and love it. I was never someone who went to Starbucks every morning but if I did, I would have saved probably $12,000 over those 8 years compared to $4/day coffee. Small changes like that can make a big difference.

 

[VolkerP]

If you truly want to emulate a car payment, feel free to send your money to me instead of putting it into a savings account. In return I will consider to up my Model S option list (and create more U.S. jobs) :biggrin:

 

[Tempus]

If you truly want to emulate a car payment, feel free to send your money to me instead of putting it into a savings account. In return I will consider to up my Model S option list (and create more U.S. jobs) :biggrin:

nice sorry, but that money is already earmarked for the downpayment portion of my Model S

 

[ElSupreme]

I was actually banking $1000 a month for 3 months before my wedding no real problems (but I had a safety net if it didn't work out). Eating at home a bit more, and bringing lunch 3-4 days a week. And well I wasn't buying other crap I really don't need for those months either. Then my wedding got close.

All that money went to wedding/honeymoon, and then some (first real debt, other that mortgage, in about 5 years). And well, after all that cost, a Tesla seems like a good sound investment. Don't get me wrong I really liked my wedding and honeymoon but it sure was a real quick money burn!

Part of my apprehension is I received a big pay bump in January. And well have had a lot of really rare expenses (wedding, wedding bands, honeymoon, vegas trip , new TV, new computer, Tesla reservation :biggrin and really haven't gotten used to the extra income. The numbers just seem scary to me, but on paper really seem to work out.

As an engineer this happens on occasion. Something just doesn't seem like it will work, but on paper all the numbers say it will. So you keep checking your numbers and eventually you go with the numbers. And well, I am a good engineer so, the numbers always work out. So I am trusting my numbers. But it still feels weird.

I have pretty much concluded that I can afford the 85kWh pack, with a little lifestyle change (not as many toys). I am going to talk it out with the wife and see if we (I know I do) want to spend that much. And whether or not we want to buy a car for 10+ years, or 6-8 years. Running my numbers again today I think the 40kWh pack is not really a stretch at all for me anymore.

And I have gotten over the "does this make financial sense" problem. It flat out doesn't. I should keep driving my GTI and save. But the problem there is, buying a car that costs more than about $30k will never pass the "does this make financial sense" test. Bottom line is I have always loved cars, I have wanted an AC induction powered car since college, and well I want my toy. And thanks to a good education, good parents, good circumstances, and a good job (not to mention fairly decent amount of 'hard' work) I am able to afford it.

 

[dsm363]

And I have gotten over the "does this make financial sense" problem. It flat out doesn't. I should keep driving my GTI and save. But the problem there is, buying a car that costs more than about $30k will never pass the "does this make financial sense" test. Bottom line is I have always loved cars, I have wanted an AC induction powered car since college, and well I want my toy. And thanks to a good education, good parents, good circumstances, and a good job (not to mention fairly decent amount of 'hard' work) I am able to afford it.

And....sold!:smile: You make an excellent argument. No car above $30k makes financial sense like you said so if the dream of an EV and the joy you'll get from driving it for many years works out with the numbers, you'll likely be happy with things. Sometimes getting toys is just worth it.

 

[Kipernicus]

I am going to talk it out with the wife and see if we (I know I do) want to spend that much.

Good luck with that! I do recall that one of her criteria is that it can't cost 90k. "But it's only 80k after the federal tax incentive but before maintenance and destination and sales taxes..." :biggrin:

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

And....sold!:smile: You make an excellent argument. No car above $30k makes financial sense like you said so if the dream of an EV and the joy you'll get from driving it for many years works out with the numbers, you'll likely be happy with things. Sometimes getting toys is just worth it.

Excellent indeed! Financial sense = Nonsense. money is all made up anyway, right?
A toy with a lot of purpose is what I see.
Your Dad wont hook up the performance upgrade for you? (and borrow the car from time to time)



or drive you around as President
|
V

 

[spatterso911]

And I have gotten over the "does this make financial sense" problem. It flat out doesn't. I should keep driving my GTI and save. But the problem there is, buying a car that costs more than about $30k will never pass the "does this make financial sense" test. Bottom line is I have always loved cars, I have wanted an AC induction powered car since college, and well I want my toy. And thanks to a good education, good parents, good circumstances, and a good job (not to mention fairly decent amount of 'hard' work) I am able to afford it.

And there, ladies and gentlemen, is the most eloquent, realistic, and heartfelt explanation for getting the 85 I've seen to date...

ElSupreme for President!

 

[Trnsl8r]

And I have gotten over the "does this make financial sense" problem. It flat out doesn't. I should keep driving my GTI and save. But the problem there is, buying a car that costs more than about $30k will never pass the "does this make financial sense" test. Bottom line is I have always loved cars, I have wanted an AC induction powered car since college, and well I want my toy. And thanks to a good education, good parents, good circumstances, and a good job (not to mention fairly decent amount of 'hard' work) I am able to afford it.

Agree with everyone else here. Pure poetry, sir.

 

[mnx]

I say keep driving the GTI (and putting away $xxxx per month) along with the aforementioned lifestyle changes. Then when you can buy the performance-85kWh in cash go for it. Of course if at that time you can still borrow money for <2% then that might make more sense.

 

[sublimaze1]

And I have gotten over the "does this make financial sense" problem. It flat out doesn't.

At risk of sounding like a crisis counselor, this is where you need to be. In essence, congrats. Kinda like in the military. When you are deployed, in theater, should it turn hostile, consider yourself already dead and you will function better. This is not an investment. This is an adventure. Adventures cost money. It is a statement. Statements involve personal risk. It is a journey. Journeys take time.

Hang in there, El.

WJ

 

[Brian H]

I say keep driving the GTI (and putting away $xxxx per month) along with the aforementioned lifestyle changes. Then when you can buy the performance-85kWh in cash go for it. Of course if at that time you can still borrow money for <2% then that might make more sense.

If you can lock in the <2%, then it makes most sense to do it now. Put the freed-up cash in TSLA. Better yet, in TSLA calls.