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Enhanced Summon coming (Elon tweet 6 Apr, 2019)
- Thread starter TChan28
- Start date
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I'm sure Waymo and Cruise are always hiring. You could get paid to test FSD in the Bay Area!
The question I have is what the take rate is.
For a Model S/X that's $90K+ the price of $6K isn't really that much percentage wise.
But, for a vehicle that's $40K+ like the Model 3 it's a lot more difficult to justify especially since it comes with basic AP as part of the purchase price.
I got the FSD package with my P3D+ because it was only $3K over EAP. But, I doubt I'd get FSD if I ordered today. There isn't any federal tax rebate to absorb it, and no feature that it offers that works really well. Some people like NoA, but I haven't had $6K worth of usefulness from it.
Plus people that take delivery today get HW3 (or at least most of them I believe) so there isn't any compelling reason to get the FSD outside of fear of it going up in the future.
I'm not seeing any compelling reason for a new Model 3 owner to get FSD so I believe the current take rate is probably 25% or lower.
Maybe I should create a poll because the poll has to exclude anyone upgrading from EAP. It should also only include people who bought a Model 3 that already had HW3, and basic AP that came standard.
Although the poll wouldn't be that accurate as TMC users are generally more well informed than non-user group owners.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Now people die from climbing Everest because they get caught in a traffic jam either going up or down.
Dan203
Active Member
Yeah but one of the main ways it learns, according to the autonomy day presentation, is by looking at user interventions. So when the car does something and the user us forced to take control back. You can’t get that from shadow mode.
C141medic
Active Member
I guess enhanced summon definitely not coming next week.
Tesla postpones Full Self-Driving price increase until V10 and Smart Summon - Electrek
I wonder when they’re going to start retrofitting HW3 to people who purchased FSD? Curious if it’ll be prior to V10 release?
Tesla postpones Full Self-Driving price increase until V10 and Smart Summon - Electrek
I wonder when they’re going to start retrofitting HW3 to people who purchased FSD? Curious if it’ll be prior to V10 release?
Dan203
Active Member
There is a chart in another thread I saw. As you suspect the take rate is higher the more expensive the car gets. Even within the Model 3 platform the take rate is higher for the Performance vs the SR+. But even so it was still, IIRC, under 50% on the high end and down in the 20s at the low end.
jebinc
Well-Known Member
May... may never.... More seriously, probably not until there is a real need for HW3 hardware.
Advertising would be the reason I could come up with right off the top of my head.
In a word? "Marketing".
Since it's describing a future that is yet to come, it would be considered marketing or advertisement. If Tesla believes they won't meed the deadline (which literally nobody should believe they will meet), then it may be misrepresentation at the least and at the worst could be considered defrauding shareholders. The latter being a much more severe crime in the US.
The speed that the vehicle is traveling has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not the neural network can appropriately classify surfaces and objects, and react appropriately. If you can do it at 5MPH, you can do it at 55, 65, and 85 MPH as well. This is a complete misunderstanding of how these systems work.
The actual problem Tesla faces is that they haven't actually trained their network enough to use on roads, and therefore it will not react appropriately in many (perhaps countless) situations. That's an actual problem in actual parking lots where lots of strange, unexpected things happen on a nearly constant basis. The only benefit a parking lot has is that you can come to a halt and summon the owner to the car at any point, presuming nobody rams into the car because it stopped for no apparent reason. On the highway, though, this would simply be a "Take over immediately" message, and wouldn't result in a potential collision.
That's a pretty bad argument, because if Tesla can't recognize stop signs then they're going to drive right through them when they are present in parking lots.
This is absolutely true of roads as well.
Also true of roads, especially in sub-urban areas where lots of Tesla owners live.
Again. These are factors that need to be handled on roadways as well. So, as I said initially, you need to solve FSD to solve self driving in parking lots. And Tesla is a long, long way away from solving FSD.
This is the mystery to me as well. If the car's driving itself in any context, then that's self driving. And, like, that's a pretty massive breakthrough that I simply don't see happening anytime soon.
I'm extremely sure about that. How would you describe a vehicle that can drive itself through the chaos of a parking lot if not "self driving"?
Dan203
Active Member
The thing about speed is that the system would be more tolerant to mistakes. It's a lot easier to correct a mistake at 5mph then at 50mph. The system may be essentially the same but the consequences of making a mistake are a lot less severe in a parking lot so they could potentially release a system that’s not as reliable for enhanced summon.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
There's nothing in V10 that should require HW3 so I doubt it. The sign and light recognition (note response was not included, though stop sign response would be required for Enhanced Summon in parking lots) will be required with HW2.5 to make Enhanced Summon work, so that also does not require HW3.
So from what we know today about V10 features and what Elon says, there won't be any need for HW3 retrofits for a while still (sounds like at least two months).
Based on Enhanced Summon videos and if I’m using nice words, I’d describe it as “cute” as in “Oh, cute little doggie, now drop the toy. Good boy!”.
but not quite as smart as the average dog.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
I'm sure Waymo and Cruise are always hiring. You could get paid to test FSD in the Bay Area!
If only in a Tesla! You would definitely have to pay me to drive those goofy vans Waymo has.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
This apparently depends on the state. Not all states enforce traffic laws in parking lots. Maybe Enhanced Summon will be geofenced to work only in states where private parking lots are lawless? Apparently you can run stop signs with impunity in privately owned parking lots in California but not in publicly owned ones. Seems like they'll probably just have to make it obey stop signs...
yellowcakepie
Member
Kant.Ing
Member
Guess I will be waiting forever for 4D Summon & 4D AutoPark with Tesla AutoPay (to clear tollgates).
For some insane reason they're going to wait until the software that requires HW3 is ready and then start the hardware upgrades, thereby creating a huge logjam of people wanting the upgrades to use the features. This tells me they have little faith in HW3, or they actually have no intention of doing the upgrades, or they simply don't give a crap about customer satisfaction.
Start hardware upgrades -> software is ready -> flip switch, tens of thousands (or more) of loyal long-term customers get to use first FSD-only feature.
Orrrrr wait until software is ready -> johnny-come-latelies with HW3 use new feature -> start upgrades -> tens of thousands (or more) of loyal long-term customers sit on their thumbs waiting for Tesla to try and do the upgrades.
The consequences at 5MPH are certainly less, yes. Because they're just fender benders at that speed. But on a highway you usually get clues from other vehicles that traffic is slowing, so except for your car crashing into a guard rail randomly, it's rare that highway collisions have large speed differentials. Not that they don't happen, but that they're rare.
Either way, a NN doesn't just calculate a probability and wait for the car to do something. It's constantly recalculating with every frame of data it receives. So in a parking lot the speeds are lower, but the distances are significantly less. On a highway, TACC keeps you at least 1 second behind the vehicle ahead of you. In a parking lot, you could be inches from a vehicle that decides to back out of a spot.
None of this changes my argument that in order to self drive through a parking lot, Tesla needs to first solve self driving. There is absolutely no sign that they're close to this yet. If there was a sign, they'd be banging that drum day and night to raise their share price. They'd have a coast-to-coast NoAP drive scheduled already. Hell, by Elon's own word, the advanced summon version they're testing "almost doesn't suck". It sucks, but almost doesn't.
Yeah, given the youtube demos we've seen, I'd say it's less effective than any dog I've ever known.
This is just another problem for Tesla. They announce all kinds of things that are of dubious legality in many jurisdictions. Geo-fencing advanced summon to an empty Tesla-owned parking lot isn't really "releasing" the feature. Also, trying to get the data for public vs. private owned parking lots, and then get permission from land owners is a significantly more complex process than just training the NN to stop at stop signs and red lights. lol
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