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EU Market Situation and Outlook

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We are nearly halfway through the month. Norway is running at a steady average of 80/cars per day. At current rates that would project out to a total of 1500 S/X for the month. the Netherlands is at 500 and so that would project out to about 1000 by the end of the year. These two countries do about half of Europe sales, so 5000 cars in total for December would be my guess or 8000 for the full quarter. That's slightly down from last year, but with the expiring federal credits in (and thus priority for) the US not unexpected.
 
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Some potentially bad news for the minority that are "Other Europe" reservation holders...

As I've been refreshing /en_EU/ version almost every day I have just gone to the Model 3 section (Model 3) and spotted that they changed the wording on delivery estimations there. Previously it said "Deliveries are starting in the US based on if you are employee, location... etc." (can't remember exactly now but we all probably read it hundred times already).

Now it just says: "Reserve your Model 3 today. Deliveries start in the second half of 2019".

I'm gonna be calling them on Monday to clarify this :(
 
Some potentially bad news for the minority that are "Other Europe" reservation holders...

As I've been refreshing /en_EU/ version almost every day I have just gone to the Model 3 section (Model 3) and spotted that they changed the wording on delivery estimations there. Previously it said "Deliveries are starting in the US based on if you are employee, location... etc." (can't remember exactly now but we all probably read it hundred times already).

Now it just says: "Reserve your Model 3 today. Deliveries start in the second half of 2019".

I'm gonna be calling them on Monday to clarify this :(

Sounds like this only applies to people reserving now, not early reservation holders!? So IMHO this means first half of year they plan to serve current reservaton holders, second half of year continueing with everyone else.
 
Cross posting, relevant here:

Someone in the Dutch subforum was told yesterday at the Tilburg delivery center (where all cars for customers in The Netherlands are delivered) that they expect to deliver 1000 cars next week. It’s the big end of the year push before the fiscal rules for business cars change and low taxes only apply to 50,000 euro of the value of the car.
 
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Sounds like this only applies to people reserving now, not early reservation holders!? So IMHO this means first half of year they plan to serve current reservaton holders, second half of year continueing with everyone else.

German FAQ page says:

Wann erfolgt die voraussichtliche Lieferung, wenn ich heute noch die Bestellung meines Model 3 bestätige?
Alle 2018 eingegangenen Bestellungen werden voraussichtlich in der ersten Hälfte von 2019 ausgeliefert.

So everyone ordering in 2018 is supposed to get the car in Q1 or Q2.
 
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The German FAQ page also says (via Google Translate):

How can I order a Model 3 today?
You can reserve a Model 3 and then be invited to place your order until December 31, 2018.

That means orders from Germany should be possible soon.

Edit: That applies to all reservation holders in continental Europe:
All continental Europe reservation holders will be invited to place their Model 3 until December 31, 2018.
 
The German FAQ page also says (via Google Translate):



That means orders from Germany should be possible soon.

Edit: That applies to all reservation holders in continental Europe:

I sure do hope so.

I've been trying to call Tesla since Monday and ask, but it either goes directly to voice message or I'm put on hold for 1h+ and give up.

I'm starting to feel like a Tesla owner trying to get hold of a Service Center already ;)
 
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I sure do hope so.

I've been trying to call Tesla since Monday and ask, but it either goes directly to voice message or I'm put on hold for 1h+ and give up.

I'm starting to feel like a Tesla owner trying to get hold of a Service Center already ;)

FYI

News from Germany. The incentive is as of Dec 18th not approved for the 3 and the authorities clarify this is due to missing documents.

Thats not good as the holiday season starts soon and they may not work on that part if Tesla delays proving the documents.

Having said that Germany may be delayed in their ability to order the 3 depending if Tesla is open ordering regardless. Thats all clearly in the interest of the German Auto industry and you may call it a coincidence but I would not be surprised if its more than that.

Regardless if you are able to get the incentive after once the 3 is on the list and you order before people will be hesitant and tend to wait until the situation is cleared. Also the time frame for the incentive is until June 30th and every days passing by is a day less people will be able to order with incentive.

Verified account
23h23 hours ago
Das BAFA erhält derzeit viele Fragen zum Tesla Model 3, daher hier ein update von uns: Das Model 3 kann auf die Liste der förderfähigen Fahrzeuge aufgenommen werden, sobald ein vollständiger Antrag des Herstellers vorliegt. Derzeit liegen noch keine vollständigen Unterlagen vor.


DusyzBDW4AAOsw9.jpg

BAFA Bund (@BAFA_Bund) | Twitter

P.S. not sure why they put a Daimler pic in their response. Kind of telling....

Noch kein Umweltbonus für Tesla Model 3 / Was Käufer wissen müssen • emobly

Alex on Twitter
 
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FYI

News from Germany. The incentive is as of Dec 18th not approved for the 3 and the authorities clarify this is due to missing documents.

Thats not good as the holiday season starts soon and they may not work on that part if Tesla delays proving the documents.

Having said that Germany may be delayed in their ability to order the 3 depending if Tesla is open ordering regardless. Thats all clearly in the interest of the German Auto industry and you may call it a coincidence but I would not be surprised if its more than that.

Regardless if you are able to get the incentive after once the 3 is on the list and you order before people will be hesitant and tend to wait until the situation is cleared. Also the time frame for the incentive is until June 30th and every days passing by is a day less people will be able to order with incentive.

Verified account
23h23 hours ago
Das BAFA erhält derzeit viele Fragen zum Tesla Model 3, daher hier ein update von uns: Das Model 3 kann auf die Liste der förderfähigen Fahrzeuge aufgenommen werden, sobald ein vollständiger Antrag des Herstellers vorliegt. Derzeit liegen noch keine vollständigen Unterlagen vor.


DusyzBDW4AAOsw9.jpg

BAFA Bund (@BAFA_Bund) | Twitter

P.S. not sure why they put a Daimler pic in their response. Kind of telling....

Noch kein Umweltbonus für Tesla Model 3 / Was Käufer wissen müssen • emobly

Alex on Twitter
Ah, paperwork of course... Reminds me of our public tender processes when they kind of already know whom they want to win. All these big companies apply and then many of them get disqualified without even checking their offer due to whatever filed being left blank. Or, as it happened last time with a radio frequency that they did not want an opposition talk radio to get, they got DQ as they did not sign the bottom of the blank (!) pages of their tender materials.
 
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Hmm, that link to the emobly website has me wondering.

It says that Tesla might not even be interested in making the Model 3 qualify for the subsidy, due to demand being so high anyway.
I must say though, if the Model 3 doesn't qualify for the subsidy it will be a definite dealbreaker for me. It is 4K Euro we are talking about after all. That is a lot of money I had factored into my calculations.

Not happy about this prospect at all.
 
Hmm, that link to the emobly website has me wondering.

It says that Tesla might not even be interested in making the Model 3 qualify for the subsidy, due to demand being so high anyway.
I must say though, if the Model 3 doesn't qualify for the subsidy it will be a definite dealbreaker for me. It is 4K Euro we are talking about after all. That is a lot of money I had factored into my calculations.

Not happy about this prospect at all.

Tesla has applied for it but documentation is not completely which does not mean that the incentive will not be given.

The article has some FUD elements in it but I do not believe we should worry. No reason to assume the 3 does not make the list.

What is happening though is that we experience delays. In case Tesla is opening Ordering in Germany and the 3 is not on the list at that point in time a lot of people like you will wonder if it makes it at all on it and thats not good for demand.

Tesla knows that and I hope the work on it and solve it quickly.
 
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Hmm, that link to the emobly website has me wondering.

It says that Tesla might not even be interested in making the Model 3 qualify for the subsidy, due to demand being so high anyway.
I must say though, if the Model 3 doesn't qualify for the subsidy it will be a definite dealbreaker for me. It is 4K Euro we are talking about after all. That is a lot of money I had factored into my calculations.

Not happy about this prospect at all.

It is a 2k Euro Subsidy combined with an OEM 2k Euro Discount.

Any OEM can just give a 2k Euro discount without jumping through hoops.
 
It is a 2k Euro Subsidy combined with an OEM 2k Euro Discount.

Any OEM can just give a 2k Euro discount without jumping through hoops.

I know the details. But the end result means saving 4K Euro, which is a large amount of money.
As Tesla usually doesn't do discounts, and referrals don't apply to Model 3 (at least here in Germany), those 4K Euro are the only thing you can get in order to save on your purchase.
 
The 2K OEM discount is money lost for Tesla as long as they are not demand constrained in Europe. I think they should just increase the price by 2K in Germany, effectively making it a 2K subsidy. Others certainly do the same, they just hide it better.
 
Some potentially bad news for the minority that are "Other Europe" reservation holders...

As I've been refreshing /en_EU/ version almost every day I have just gone to the Model 3 section (Model 3) and spotted that they changed the wording on delivery estimations there. Previously it said "Deliveries are starting in the US based on if you are employee, location... etc." (can't remember exactly now but we all probably read it hundred times already).

Now it just says: "Reserve your Model 3 today. Deliveries start in the second half of 2019".

I'm gonna be calling them on Monday to clarify this :(

If you're reading en_EU it would assume that you're UK or Ireland, which means right-hand drive.
Early 2019H2 was kind of expected for early RHD sales.
It would not be indicative for LHD EU countries who should be able to get their vehicles in 2019H1.