EU Market Situation and Outlook

[matbl]

Sweden:
December 2015: 172 (43rd most sold car if I count correctly).
Total 2015: 996 (Not on top 75)
Link: Nyregistreringar december 2015 prel

 

[chickensevil]

Where's the 2015 Dec number in your plot coming from? Wiki has only NL so far.

- - - Updated - - -

373 registrations in Norway this month as of 12/26, according to MrBacardi

Denmark Dec num on nrpla.de never changed since update a week ago.

It was projected numbers including all of 2016 pointing out what the numbers could look like if the trends hold from what we saw in 2014 and 2015.

That's Troy for getting what I was suggesting. It will be great if Europe shapes up anything like that.

 

[Benz]

The total number of European Tesla Model S deliveries in Q4 2015 will be about 5,000 (I think).

Current total for Q4 2015 in the wiki: 4,820

Well, that wasn't that far off: 96.4% accurate.

Oops

The numbers from a few countries still have to be added (Germany, Switzerland, France, ...).

So, at least a few hundred more to be added to the current total of 4,820 Tesla Model S deliveries in Europe in Q4 2015.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Germany - 234 cars in December. Model S sales sales took third place, beating Audi A7/S7/RS7, Audi A8/S8, BMW 6, Porsche Panamera. Not a bad showing.

http://www.kba.de/SharedDocs/Publik...82A25E9AF.live1042?__blob=publicationFile&v=2

MB CLS/S	807
BMW 7	352
Tesla Model S	234
Audi A7/S7/RS7	217
Audi A8, S8	164
BMW 6	120
Porsche Panamera	78

 

[SebastianR]

Germany - 234 cars in December. Model S sales sales took third place, beating Audi A7/S7/RS7, Audi A8/S8, BMW 6, Porsche Panamera. Not a bad showing.

http://www.kba.de/SharedDocs/Publik...82A25E9AF.live1042?__blob=publicationFile&v=2

MB CLS/S	807
BMW 7	352
Tesla Model S	234
Audi A7/S7/RS7	217
Audi A8, S8	164
BMW 6	120
Porsche Panamera	78

Very nice indeed! The total over the year places Tesla as the most sold "non-German" car in the "Oberklasse" segment of KBA and even beats the Phaeton of VW. It is (year over year) also the car with the highest growth numbers in that segment. Really well done for an "outsider" in Germany!

 

[vgrinshpun]

I would love to see the reaction to these sales data and hear words spoken in the Porsche boardroom.:smile:

 

[Spidy]

I would love to see the reaction to these sales data and hear words spoken in the Porsche boardroom.:smile:

Coming from Other German manufacturers: 12
Von welcher Marke kommt ihr? Freunde

 

[SebastianR]

Coming from Other German manufacturers: 12
Von welcher Marke kommt ihr? Freunde

Watch out of the Model X to fully hit the market. Granted, the Panamera - as closest Porsche competitor to the Model S - was never a truly smashing success (i.e. as iconic as 911, as much talked about as the Boxter or as successful as the Cayenne). But Porsche started to sell the Cayenne to get from about 20k cars a year to being +100k cars a year. Once the Model X starts to eat into Cayenne sales, we will see a reaction from Porsche. Und should there be a Model 3 and potentially a Model 3 SUV (which at this point is pure speculation, I know) I predict massive troubles for the Macan (and then for Porsche as a brand).

In other words, I think that the Panamera has no future in its current form and will silently disappear / be marginalised. The big fight with Porsche will be the Model X.

 

[smac]

In other words, I think that the Panamera has no future in its current form and will silently disappear / be marginalised. The big fight with Porsche will be the Model X.

I agree the Panamera will be marginalised (if it isn't already, with heavy discounting required to shift the Diesels here)

If the X does well in translation from US to EU (well UK) tastes is hard to know right now.

Personally I'd prefer a non FWD option, as would my Q7 driving wife. It's a bit too brash if I'm honest.

The other real headwind for the UK market will be the interior. The go to choice of Range Rover in the £100k segment, really is rather special inside, and my 2014 Model S certainly isn't as well screwed together as my wife's Q7

When you compare a Model S to other performance luxury saloons, it so demolishes them in performance terms you can make allowances for the interior.

When you compare a luxury SUV, then I can't help but think the purchasing choices place performance further down the list. (Even some US sig owners were upset in having to pay for P option)

Will certainly be interesting to see.

 

[SebastianR]

The other real headwind for the UK market will be the interior. The go to choice of Range Rover in the £100k segment, really is rather special inside, and my 2014 Model S certainly isn't as well screwed together as my wife's Q7

I hear you well. However, according to this article here (sorry in German) Dräxlmaier is doing part of the interior of the Model X. They are otherwise doing Mercedes, BMW and Audi interiors. So I have hope that this part of the product will improve as well... But as you say: we will see.

 

[smac]

I hear you well. However, according to this article here (sorry in German) Dräxlmaier is doing part of the interior of the Model X. They are otherwise doing Mercedes, BMW and Audi interiors. So I have hope that this part of the product will improve as well... But as you say: we will see.

Interesting article which even my poor German skills gets the gist of

My view for what it's worth is that Tesla are "weight budget" constrained, rather than price or quality constrained.

Quite frankly given the weight penalty the S is carrying in batteries it's amazing how close it is to kerb weight of say something like a Panamera. Hats off to the engineers for achieving this, but there are limits. It's silly things like grab handles, door bins, lighting in the vanity mirrors, using a clip instead of a screw, having the bare minimum of fixings and using the minimum of padding in the seats. All of which individually weigh nothing, but all add up on the scales. You can see all the same tricks in my other car (a Lotus) and no doubt Tesla learnt a thing or two during their partnership.

The rolling chassis of say something akin to a Range Rover on the other hand has weight budget to spare given the energy density of liquid fuels. They can then squander this budget on every toy known to man, use stacks of NVH damping, big bulky seats etc. etc.

I look forward to seeing an X in a European showroom to see how close they have got, and hopefully what to look forward to in a future S (I'm out on the X the doors are simply not for me)

 

[chickensevil]

I agree the Panamera will be marginalised (if it isn't already, with heavy discounting required to shift the Diesels here)

If the X does well in translation from US to EU (well UK) tastes is hard to know right now.

Personally I'd prefer a non FWD option, as would my Q7 driving wife. It's a bit too brash if I'm honest.

The other real headwind for the UK market will be the interior. The go to choice of Range Rover in the £100k segment, really is rather special inside, and my 2014 Model S certainly isn't as well screwed together as my wife's Q7

When you compare a Model S to other performance luxury saloons, it so demolishes them in performance terms you can make allowances for the interior.

When you compare a luxury SUV, then I can't help but think the purchasing choices place performance further down the list. (Even some US sig owners were upset in having to pay for P option)

Will certainly be interesting to see.

Most were upset because with the Sig S the performance was an option and they took that away on the X. I don't know that it had so much to do with people caring less about performance in an SUV so much as a deviation of what they offered when they sold the S.

 

[smac]

Most were upset because with the Sig S the performance was an option and they took that away on the X. I don't know that it had so much to do with people caring less about performance in an SUV so much as a deviation of what they offered when they sold the S.

You are right it was a sweeping generalization based on my interpretation of a number of posts, comments about cancellation reasons, and general TMC "vibe".

Maybe you are right and I am wrong.


What is not wrong is here the sporty versions (the Cayenne Turbos, the RR v8 Supercharged, the X5M, GL AMG's) are wildly outsold by far less performance orientated machines. This is after all the EU outlook forum.




,

 

[RobStark]

It's silly things like grab handles, door bins, lighting in the vanity mirrors, using a clip instead of a screw, having the bare minimum of fixings and using the minimum of padding in the seats. All of which individually weigh nothing, but all add up on the scales. You can see all the same tricks in my other car (a Lotus) and no doubt Tesla learnt a thing or two during their partnership.

All the silly things in the Universe don't add up to a 200 lbs glass roof.


I will take grab handles,garment hooks and a Double Gulp sized beverage holder with the massive weight penalty.

 

[smac]

I will take grab handles,garment hooks and a Double Gulp sized beverage holder with the massive weight penalty.

And the range penalty that goes with that?

 

[RobStark]

And the range penalty that goes with that?

.0001 Miles? Yeah.

These weigh only a couple of pounds

My GF is a bout a 2 mile range penalty.

I will take her too.

Weight mostly adds an acceleration penalty.

Steady state speed weight is a very secondary issue to aerodynamics.

When I am hypermiling between superchargers weight is not the issue.

For daily use around town range is irrelevant.

 

[smac]

You are obviously right Rob and the huge lengths manufacturers are going to to reduce weight is a pointless exercise.
Tesla chose aluminium because it's cheap and easy to work with, and BMW invested 100's of millions in developing new CF technologies just for shitz and giggles

Like it or not weight is a key design parameter in car design. Weight hurts everywhere, acceleration, handling, efficiency (range), ride. so weight budgets are fought tooth and nail between the varying design groups, all tracked at fine detail of every component, which in turn is constrained in material choice by cost. Quite simply the easiest way to reduce cost is to leave stuff out,

I guess the alternative view as to why Tesla's don't have such simple things as grab handles, door bins and lights in the mirrors (which even my first ever car back in the 90's which was already 10 years old had) is they are penny pinching on the interior.

 

[RobStark]

You are obviously right Rob and the huge lengths manufacturers are going to to reduce weight is a pointless exercise.
Tesla chose aluminium because it's cheap and easy to work with, and BMW invested 100's of millions in developing new CF technologies just for shitz and giggles

Like it or not weight is a key design parameter in car design. Weight hurts everywhere, acceleration, handling, efficiency (range), ride. so weight budgets are fought tooth and nail between the varying design groups, all tracked at fine detail of every component, which in turn is constrained in material choice by cost. Quite simply the easiest way to reduce cost is to leave stuff out,

I guess the alternative view as to why Tesla's don't have such simple things as grab handles, door bins and lights in the mirrors (which even my first ever car back in the 90's which was already 10 years old had) is they are penny pinching on the interior.

Going to aluminum or CFRP to save 500-700 lbs makes a difference.

Two or three pounds on features many customers want make no difference.

To show how important weight is Tesla saved ~700 lbs going aluminum then added 200 lbs with a glass roof.

Instead of using 15 lbs forged aluminum wheels Tesla went with 34 lbs cast aluminum wheels. And unsprung weight is the most critical weight mass in the performance of a car.

Elon got the pano roof for his personal car and insist on doing so for journalist to review vehicles.

Tesla chose to exclude many options because Elon does not think they are very important.

It did not fit is minimalist design aesthetic.

He noted he did not include a rear light because he thinks nobody reads actual books these days, they read e-books.

One of his sons said Model S was the dumbest car ever.

Back it went.

There are many great things about the Model S being the singular vision of Elon Musk and not a car made by committee.

The lack of these basics is not one of them.

Subsequently Tesla has added bigger lighted vanity mirrors when customers complained enough.

 

[chickensevil]

You are right it was a sweeping generalization based on my interpretation of a number of posts, comments about cancellation reasons, and general TMC "vibe".

Maybe you are right and I am wrong.


What is not wrong is here the sporty versions (the Cayenne Turbos, the RR v8 Supercharged, the X5M, GL AMG's) are wildly outsold by far less performance orientated machines. This is after all the EU outlook forum.




,

Sorry, I wasn't implying that you were wrong about the non-performance being a larger group than the performance group. Just stating that was my impression when reading through the complaints. People wanted to be able to buy a signature vehicle sans performance. They expected it to be an option when they put their deposit down because it was something they did for the S. But I don't know that I would base the Signature owners on the general trends of everyone else. We will have to wait and see how the general production trends end up to determine what kind of buyers are getting the X. I wouldn't imagine the performance version of the other Luxury brands are the highest number of cars, yet on the Tesla that is exactly the case (or at least it used to be, as was evidenced by the rather large ASP). It could be that the performance version is what draws most people to the MS, especially in lieu of going with another brand that has more "creature comforts" in it. Only recently has Tesla even started to get up to speed in that category. The X takes that one step further with door pockets and lighted vanity mirrors and lots of cup holders.

Maybe the ASP on the X will show that the Performance version trends higher, maybe we won't, it's unclear at this point. But one thing is clear, Tesla buyers are not your average consumer in that car class.

 

[smac]

To show how important weight is Tesla saved ~700 lbs going aluminum then added 200 lbs with a glass roof.

And then subsequently used the base car with solid roof and zero features for all the EPA testing