EU Market Situation and Outlook

[hummingbird]

Someone at another site posted the following regarding Norway's EV tax benefit, is this true? If so, what's the likelihood the 50,000 cap will be increased before it is reached?


"You can sell everything electric in Norway because of tax benefit. But that is only for the first 50.000 EVs. Now they have overpass 32.000 EVs registration and there are new competitors, i3, Kia Soul electric, E-Golf"

 

[taraquin]

When the total number og EVs passes 50k they may change or remove som of the incentives.

 

[Alfred]

Switzerland:

Apr 16
Jan-Apr total 149

Where is that number from? According to a Tesla representative in Zurich, between September 2013 (when deliveries started) and May 2014, about 460 Model have been registered. He also stated that Switzerland is the second most important market for Tesla in Europe, after Norway.

 

[schonelucht]

Where is that number from? According to a Tesla representative in Zurich, between September 2013 (when deliveries started) and May 2014, about 460 Model have been registered. He also stated that Switzerland is the second most important market for Tesla in Europe, after Norway.

Tesla sold over 1400 cars in the Netherlands since September, that makes Switzerland the 3rd most important European market.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Someone at another site posted the following regarding Norway's EV tax benefit, is this true? If so, what's the likelihood the 50,000 cap will be increased before it is reached?


"You can sell everything electric in Norway because of tax benefit. But that is only for the first 50.000 EVs. Now they have overpass 32.000 EVs registration and there are new competitors, i3, Kia Soul electric, E-Golf"

As taraquin said, they might remove or change some of the incentives after 50k.

Basically, all the parties have agreed to maintain the current incentives until 2017 or 50k eletric cars have been sold, whichever comes first. This does not however mean that the incentives expire or anything when the limits are reached. They will merely be renegotiated.

Personally, I think that the incentives will be gradually stepped down as more electric cars become available, and their cost decreases. There's still not a single party that has said they want to get rid of the incentives outright, at least.

 

[hummingbird]

@Yggdrasill and others from Norway region,

Norway deliveries were 1179 Q4 and 2056 Q1. How do you see this trending in the next two quarters? Care to give us a guess for Q2/Q3?

 

[Alfred]

@Yggdrasill and others from Norway,

Norway deliveries were 1179 Q4 and 2056 Q1. How do you see this trending in the next two quarters? Care to give us a guess for Q2/Q3?

are those in Holland identical with registrations in Holland. Could there be a "Tilburg-effect?

 

[Yggdrasill]

@Yggdrasill and others from Norway region,

Norway deliveries were 1179 Q4 and 2056 Q1. How do you see this trending in the next two quarters? Care to give us a guess for Q2/Q3?

My guess:

Q2: 1000-2000
Q3: 1500-2500
Q4: 1500-2500

Sales are at an extremely high level, but with more superchargers, service centers and publicity, the trend should be stable or rising slightly. March, however, was probably an outlier.

 

[Newb]

Where is that number from? According to a Tesla representative in Zurich, between September 2013 (when deliveries started) and May 2014, about 460 Model have been registered. He also stated that Switzerland is the second most important market for Tesla in Europe, after Norway.

Here you go: auto-schweiz: Autoverkäufe nach Modellen

Official statistics > representative talk

 

[Mario Kadastik]

are those in Holland identical with registrations in Holland. Could there be a "Tilburg-effect?

Well my car arrived without plates or anything to indicate it saw the Netherlandish DMV. And i had to "pick up" from tilburg, which meant I sent a transport company to pick the car up. And I doubt transit license plates count as the ones in Estonia didn't get shown in statistics because in december there was just one car (mine) and the other Model S that arrived on the same truck and got transit plates to go on to Finland wasn't listed anywhere...

 

[32no]

It looks like the top 5 markets in Europe in terms of sales and store/service center/supercharger investments are:
1. Norway
2. Netherlands
3. Germany
4. Switzerland
5. Belgium

I also suspect that UK will overtake Switzerland and/or Belgium.

The red under Germany is an estimate. All of the numbers come from http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/ and TMC. I would appreciate any number corrections.

EDIT:
Finland numbers corrected (Thanks Pate)
EDIT 2:
Sweden numbers corrected (Thanks Taraquin)
Estonia numbers corrected (Thanks Mario)
Switzerland numbers updated (Thanks Chillong)

 

[Pate]

The numbers for Finland are not correct. Here are the correct numbers:

December 2013	2
January 2014	1
February 2014	3
March 2014	9
April 2014	16

 

[hummingbird]

@32no,

Thank you for the detailed spreadsheet. A suggestion, you might as well add USA and Canada to it, then everything will add up nicely to ww figures reported by the company.

Would be appreciated by all if you could share the spreadsheet somehow. If not possible, that's ok too.

(Canada 2014 Jan to Apr: 20 19 119 20 )

 

[taraquin]

The Swedennumbers are wrong:
October 13: 8
November: 2
December: 6
January: 5
Total: 71 anno 1.may

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Also numbers for Estonia are not correct. The correct ones are:

Dec 1
Jan 0
Feb 1
Mar 3 (*1 officially registered, but the other two were paid to Tesla in March and loaded on truck)
Apr 0 (*2 registered in first week, but actually paid for to Tesla in March).

It seems there will be multiple in May as far as I know, could even be a doubling of the total car count. Will let you know in early June when the numbers are published.

 

[chillong]

April in Switzerland is 16

 

[hobbes]

3 more SC under construction in Germany, so soon 8 in total!
Inofficial map:

TFF Forum Thema anzeigen - Supercharger in Europa

 

[DaveT]

I was re-watching videos from 2012/2013 where Elon and others talk about Model X and it's AWD system. I'm thinking that the extra motor will significantly improve top speed since two motors will be running together. When Tesla releases AWD for the Model S, I think this will solve the top speed/autobahn problem for Germany. AWD will also add acceleration (probably taking the Model S Performance AWD down to under 4 seconds 0-60mph). If there have been hesitation in Germany because of top speed of the Model S, this issue will likely soon be resolved with the Model S AWD. Just some food for thought.

 

[vgrinshpun]

AWD will also add acceleration (probably taking the Model S Performance AWD down to under 4 seconds 0-60mph).

Likely under 3.5 seconds. My P85+ is already under 4.0 seconds, without AWD.:biggrin:

 

[Johann Koeber]

I was re-watching videos from 2012/2013 where Elon and others talk about Model X and it's AWD system. I'm thinking that the extra motor will significantly improve top speed since two motors will be running together. When Tesla releases AWD for the Model S, I think this will solve the top speed/autobahn problem for Germany. AWD will also add acceleration (probably taking the Model S Performance AWD down to under 4 seconds 0-60mph). If there have been hesitation in Germany because of top speed of the Model S, this issue will likely soon be resolved with the Model S AWD. Just some food for thought.

Top speed by itself is not so much of a problem. Limited range at high speed much more so.

I went 600 km from Nuremburg to Berlin with only 1 SC along the way. I do not feel limited on the first (ca. 200 km) leg. But on the second leg 130 km/h is too much.