EV Market Share

[jhm]

Calculating a car’s CO2 emissions from its mpg | ETA
This is handy. To get CO2 g/km, divide the MPG petrol into 6760 or divide MPG diesel into 7440.

CAFE PIC Fleet
In 2016, the US fleet CAFE standard was 32.7 MPG. This is equivalent to 206.7 g/km. The CAFE standard would need to jump up to 71.2 MPG (nearly double!) to be at parity with the EU 95 g/km.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Calculating a car’s CO2 emissions from its mpg | ETA
This is handy. To get CO2 g/km, divide the MPG petrol into 6760 or divide MPG diesel into 7440.

I think those are imperial gallons.

 

[jhm]

I think those are imperial gallons.

Dang it. Thanks!

2440 CO2g/l × 3.785 l/USGAL × 0.61 mile/km × 1.2 USGAL/UKGAL = 7670.3 CO2g/km mile/UKGAL

So for US gallons, use 5634.

5634/32.7 mpg = 172 g/km
5634/95 g/km = 59.3 mpg

Boosting the Cafe standard fro 32.7 mpg to 59.3 mpg is still a big stretch for US to catch up with EU.

 

[RobStark]

The most efficient non plug-in hybrid vehicle sold in Europe is the Hyundai Ioniq which is rated at 103 grams per kilometer. So even that needs to be offset with EVs. Wow.

 

[renim]

>RobStark

yeah, that WLTP is magic isn't it?

anyway

PHEV has 3/4 less WLTP CO2 emissions than petrol version..
hmmmm 13.8kWh battery

 

[FlatSix911]

Interesting reading... The Mystery Of Tesla Model 3 Demand | CleanTechnica

 

[mspohr]

As Wall Street Journal auto columnist Dan Neil explained in late December, dirty, inefficient internal-combustion (IC) engine vehicles are becoming a very risky bet.

“During the reasonable service life of any vehicle I buy today, I expect the demand for IC-powered vehicles will drop to practically zero, equivalent to the current market penetration of flip phones,” Neil wrote. And so, “a gas-powered vehicle would be too expensive.”

Plummeting battery prices to make electric cars cheaper than gas cars in 3 years

The greatest offenders are also the most complex, like Volvo’s T8 plug-in hybrid powertrain, with electric motors, CVT, batteries, power inverter and a supercharged/turbocharged 2.0-liter engine thrashing away at one another, all so it can eke out a few miles of EV range. The steady improvement in lithium-ion batteries’ energy and power-density over cost will render the latest plug-in hybrids comically superfluous in a matter of years.

Think Electric Vehicles Are Great Now? Just Wait… – Flourish Foundry | Business Trading News

 

[jhm]

http://www.mining.com/tesla-rivals-roadkill-even-china/

Nice chart here.

 

[mongo]

@jhm Updated link:
Tesla is turning rivals into roadkill – even in China | MINING.com

 

[Doggydogworld]

http://www.mining.com/tesla-rivals-roadkill-even-china/

Nice chart here.

I hate these monthly charts and tables. Tesla crushes everyone in the 3rd month of the quarter, then sucks wind in the first.

Anyway, the Adamas press release says:

In March 2019, 9.76 GWh of passenger EV battery capacity was deployed globally, an increase of 94% year-over-year according to Adamas Intelligence’s “EV Battery Capacity Monthly”.​

So Tesla was just under 30% in their "good month". Will this finally put the "GF produces 60% of the world's batteries" myth to rest? Somehow I doubt it....

 

[adiggs]

@jhm Updated link:
Tesla is turning rivals into roadkill – even in China | MINING.com

I hope these folks continue to update this - this is how I like to keep track of the EV competition.

 

[jhm]

I hate these monthly charts and tables. Tesla crushes everyone in the 3rd month of the quarter, then sucks wind in the first.

Anyway, the Adamas press release says:

In March 2019, 9.76 GWh of passenger EV battery capacity was deployed globally, an increase of 94% year-over-year according to Adamas Intelligence’s “EV Battery Capacity Monthly”.​

So Tesla was just under 30% in their "good month". Will this finally put the "GF produces 60% of the world's batteries" myth to rest? Somehow I doubt it....

Who is saying that the GF1 is producing 60% of world supply? You appear to be arguing with ghosts.

Even so, the idea that EV battery production is up 94% y/y is pretty amazing. Batteries may well need to be growing faster than EV unit sales as producers race to make longer range BEVs, breaking from PHEVs and short range BEVs. EV makers not named Tesla generally have a lot of catch up to do in terms of kWh/vehicle.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Who is saying that the GF1 is producing 60% of world supply?

I can't find the 60% quote offhand, but in the Q3 2018 call they claimed a bit more than half:

Deepak Ahuja
Yeah. So at the moment, if you look at, for example, for Q3, all electric vehicles made around the world, their total battery capacity was about 20 or 19 gigawatt hours. And what we produced in Q3 was about the same or a little bit higher, so about half of world's batteries basically.
Elon Musk
Well, and that's - because we also sourced cells from Japan and elsewhere. Is that [indiscernible] towards just Giga or…?
Deepak Ahuja
So - yeah, so just the Giga itself is about 20 and on top of that S and X is - I don't know, another 4 or 5.​

 

[jhm]

I can't find the 60% quote offhand, but in the Q3 2018 call they claimed a bit more than half:

Deepak Ahuja
Yeah. So at the moment, if you look at, for example, for Q3, all electric vehicles made around the world, their total battery capacity was about 20 or 19 gigawatt hours. And what we produced in Q3 was about the same or a little bit higher, so about half of world's batteries basically.
Elon Musk
Well, and that's - because we also sourced cells from Japan and elsewhere. Is that [indiscernible] towards just Giga or…?
Deepak Ahuja
So - yeah, so just the Giga itself is about 20 and on top of that S and X is - I don't know, another 4 or 5.​

Hmm, yeah, that sounds like an exaggeration. Excluding Tesla, the rest of the world produced about 6.89 GWh in April. Annualizing that is about 82 GWh. I suspect that Tesla is still at near 20 GWh, so about 12% of global capacity, which makes more sense in terms of market share of vehicles.

Now battery production is doubling on nearly an annual basis. So even looking back a year the global production was maybe 50 GWh. So even there, 20GWh is not quite half of 50GWH. So I think they were working with out-of-date data regarding competitors.

 

[jhm]

Simon Moores on Twitter
Simon Moores on Twitter

Great news coming out of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, which tracks the battery industry.

Lowest cell prices have now dropped below $100/kWh. Pack level should hit this by 2022/23

Production capacity on track to hit 1TWh mark by 2023.

This 1TWh mark it pretty important. It is enough

• To put 20M EV on the road in a single year
• To offset 667 kb/d of gasoline demand if all EV are private cars
• To offset 2mb/d of diesel demand if all EV are commercial vehicles
• To offset more than 1mb/d oil demand with a mix of 3/4 private and 1/4 commercial vehicles.

It does appear that this is sizing the whole lithium ion market, not just EVs. So some portion of this capacity will go into consumer electronics, stationary storage, and other non-automotive applications.

 

[Doggydogworld]

View attachment 409525
This 1TWh mark it pretty important. It is enough

• To put 20M EV on the road in a single year
• To offset 667 kb/d of gasoline demand if all EV are private cars

Or 60M PHEV-50s, which would offset more than twice as much gasoline demand.

 

[EVNow]

Or 60M PHEV-50s, which would offset more than twice as much gasoline demand.

PHEVs as a bridging technology make a lot of sense - but Volt - despite being a good car - never sold much.

 

[mspohr]

Or 60M PHEV-50s, which would offset more than twice as much gasoline demand.

The only reason PHEVs made sense was because batteries were so expensive and ICE engines cheap. Now that battery prices are dropping, the extra baggage of the ICE will be a liability.

 

[mongo]

Or 60M PHEV-50s, which would offset more than twice as much gasoline demand.

Very case by case dependant on commute and people springing for the extra cost to plug it in versus buying it for the MPG improvement.

 

[Doggydogworld]

PHEVs as a bridging technology make a lot of sense - but Volt - despite being a good car - never sold much.

Unlike Bolt, which is selling like hotcakes! Haha.

I keep hearing battery supply is the limiting factor (and part of Tesla's advantage). As long as that is true, PHEVs would displace more oil than BEVs. On the other hand, if battery supply is sufficient because EV demand is limited and will take many years to develop, then it's best to make BEVs as they appeal more to purists and early adopters.