EV Market Share

[renim]

JHM

your analysis does not go back far enough, it is a temporal blip.

From 2010 to date the trend is strongly reducing market share for the top 3 electrified vehicle makers. This is the China effect, only Tesla is holding market share on a global basis.

the state is play is still very early, that is, individual production jumps from new models have a large effect, this year there will be a major growth in China, as well as the 60kWh class from Kia, Nissan and Hyundai.

China will probably grow to 2 million new energy vehicles for this year's sale. so if China grows to 2 million and ROW grows 50% to 1.65 million, total NEV production for 2019 will be 3.65 million. Tesla will need 440,000 vehicles produced this year just to maintain market share. Can Tesla do that? perhaps, I would predict closer to 400,000 Tesla vehicles, so back to 11% market share.

 

[jhm]

JHM

your analysis does not go back far enough, it is a temporal blip.

From 2010 to date the trend is strongly reducing market share for the top 3 electrified vehicle makers. This is the China effect, only Tesla is holding market share on a global basis.

View attachment 389906


View attachment 389907


the state is play is still very early, that is, individual production jumps from new models have a large effect, this year there will be a major growth in China, as well as the 60kWh class from Kia, Nissan and Hyundai.

China will probably grow to 2 million new energy vehicles for this year's sale. so if China grows to 2 million and ROW grows 50% to 1.65 million, total NEV production for 2019 will be 3.65 million. Tesla will need 440,000 vehicles produced this year just to maintain market share. Can Tesla do that? perhaps, I would predict closer to 400,000 Tesla vehicles, so back to 11% market share.

I'm not sure how the 2013 are relevant to the market going forward. Back then it was almost entirely a compliance car market, and as you point out China was not even in the game, a different 5-year plan.

The question is how things shake out as we enter a truly competitive market, exiting a compliance market. The issue is that a compliance market is naturally bounded by the compliance requirement imposed on OEMs. This puts a lot more players into the EV market, but gives them little motivation to aspire to take market share from the ICE market. Arguably Nissan was crossing that compliance threshold with the LEAF, but that is pretty much the exception to the general rule. Going forward, Tesla is clearly competitive, trying to take market share away from ICE just as quickly as it can ramp up production. Can this be said of other EV makers? BYD is doing an outstanding job. Perhaps we can argue for a few others.

My thesis is that only a few EV makers will truly be competitive. As a consequence of this I expect the market to become more concentrated in just a few names. So you seem to be suggesting that Tesla will fail to gain market share among the EV market in 2019. Perhaps. But I see Tesla reaching for 1M EVs by 2020, so in two years this is near a 100% annual growth rate. (GF4 and the Model Y are key components of this growth.) Do you think the whole EV market will grow faster than Tesla over the next two years? Certainly we can expect a couple of companies to make some big jumps in this time frame. It really does depend on the introduction of new models. But it is hard for me to envision the automakers not in the top 10 EV makers as a group growing more than 60%/year. They lack the tech, the scale and the drive to do it. So I'm thinking that the top 3 (whoever they may be) and the top 10 will continue to grow EV sales faster than the rest of the field into 2020.

Let's see how this plays out. It'll be a fine race.

 

[neroden]

Year end data for 2018, interesting several sources say BYD beat Tesla by a small margin.

Tesla and China's BYD fight for lead in global EV sales | The Driven

Includes PHEVs, FYI.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Year end data for 2018, interesting several sources say BYD beat Tesla by a small margin.

Tesla and China's BYD fight for lead in global EV sales | The Driven

BYD's 247k includes 227k cars, 12-13k buses and 7k "other commercial". The last category had ~1k of sales total for the first 11 months of the year then a sudden burst of 6k in December. My working theory is they bought 6000 electric scooters and sold them to their employees at a huge discount

 

[jhm]

BYD's 247k includes 227k cars, 12-13k buses and 7k "other commercial". The last category had ~1k of sales total for the first 11 months of the year then a sudden burst of 6k in December. My working theory is they bought 6000 electric scooters and sold them to their employees at a huge discount

Where are you getting this break out for BYD?

 

[neroden]

Norway seems to have gone subexponential, to linear growth of EVs. A couple of years ago. Model 3 may affect this, though, with a big jump. It'll be really interesting to see the 2019 numbers, but what I'm really interested in is Norway's *2020* numbers -- I want to use them to project how the back half of the "S curve" will look.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Where are you getting this break out for BYD?

I was wrong, they sold 7300 of "Other" in December. FYI, they also claim 13.4 GWh for vehicles and energy storage. Mostly vehicles, I think.

PDF.js viewer

 

[renim]

I'm not sure how the 2013 are relevant to the market going forward. Back then it was almost entirely a compliance car market, and as you point out China was not even in the game, a different 5-year plan....

2013 global sales of plugin vehicles was 210,000 of which USA was 98,000. so by definition it was maximum 46% compliance.

but of that 98,000.
23,000 were GM Volt
22,000 were Nissan LEAF
18,000 were Tesla Model S,
so that leaves 98-23-22-18 = 35,000 compliance cars
so the compliance sales back in 2013 was approximately 17% of the total market.

in 2019, China sales will easily exceed 50% of the global EV market, hopefully most of those will not be compliance vehicles, but there will be a lot of credit trading going on.

or to put it another way

 

[AudubonB]

Close enough to this thread's topic to count:

Yesterday, my wife asked me what (wrt to the US market) fraction of vehicles on the road are Teslas? When we're in Alaska, they are rare enough that each one gets a yell....or scream...or squee or some such; in some places in the lesser-48 one can see 3-6 at a time (not including SpCs).
I suggested 500K Teslas (probably still a little high) vs 250mm total (might be low) - so 0.2%. Close enough?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Close enough to this thread's topic to count:

Yesterday, my wife asked me what (wrt to the US market) fraction of vehicles on the road are Teslas? When we're in Alaska, they are rare enough that each one gets a yell....or scream...or squee or some such; in places in the lesser-48 one can see 3-6 at a time in places (not including SpCs).
I suggested 500K Teslas (probably still a little high) vs 250mm total (might be low) - so 0.2%. Close enough?

Tesla passed 200k US in very early July, 2018. They shipped ~116k 3s and ~32k S/X from then through FEB19, so just under 350k. Plus another 20-25k S/X/3 so far in March for about 375k total or 0.15% of the fleet. One out of 700 cars. It's not spread evenly, might be one in 150 in CA.

 

[AudubonB]

Well, what we do know is that the numerator is growing super-handsomely while the denominator is effectively standing still, so this fraction is going to change rather dramatically in the next few years.

 

[jhm]

2013 global sales of plugin vehicles was 210,000 of which USA was 98,000. so by definition it was maximum 46% compliance.

but of that 98,000.
23,000 were GM Volt
22,000 were Nissan LEAF
18,000 were Tesla Model S,
so that leaves 98-23-22-18 = 35,000 compliance cars
so the compliance sales back in 2013 was approximately 17% of the total market.

in 2019, China sales will easily exceed 50% of the global EV market, hopefully most of those will not be compliance vehicles, but there will be a lot of credit trading going on.

or to put it another way


View attachment 390278

Ok, but still this is five years ago. I'm not seeing much relevance to the next five years. I also noticed that the number 1 Nissan took five years just to double their sales, while Tesla sales grew 11X. Nissan's leisurely pace is just not going to cut it. The top three in 2018 doubled over the prior year. This is competition at a whole other level that the likes of Nissan, Chevy, Mitsubishi and Toyota just don't seem up to, though they led the pack in 2013. So I struggle to see what advantage those top four have retained that will advantage them going forward.

To what do you attribute their slow growth? If it wasn't just to get regulatory credits in the US and Europe, why did they come out strong and not keep up the pace? I at least give credit to GM for trying, but they're not getting the traction I would hope. To really get a grip on climate change, all automakers need to be doubling their EV sales at least every two years. It seems that either thes slow one don't want to grow EV sales or they just are inept at it. Increasingly I get the impression that they are simply not up to the challenge. And so a new pack of top EV makers will grow faster and displace the slow ones in rank and volume. What am I missing here?

 

[jhm]

Well, what we do know is that the numerator is growing super-handsomely while the denominator is effectively standing still, so this fraction is going to change rather dramatically in the next few years.

Vehicles in use | OICA

You might consult this source.

 

[jhm]

Tesla Model 3 Outsells BMW 3 Series, Mercedes C Class In Europe

In February, Tesla sold 3,657 Model 3s in Europe. That figure places it ahead of tons of vehicles, including the Renault Zoe, Nissan LEAF, BMW i3 and Hyundai Kona Electric, just to name a few of the electric competitors. Additionally, the Model 3 outsold the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, BMW 3 Series and Audi A4.

Felipe Munoz, global analyst for Jato Dynamics, stated that this high level of demand for the Model 3 is very unusual and he added that typically demand doesn't soar “until four or five months after a new car has hit the roads.” That may well mean sales of the Model 3 will go even higher in the coming months.

Munoz adds:

“As we’re seeing in the US, Tesla is also shaking up the European market. Its long-lasting impact will depend on how quickly the German premium makers, Volvo and JLR react to the arrival of the Model 3 to Europe and how quickly they can bring in their own midsize electric cars.”

 

[jhm]

Tesla Model 3 Tops European Sales Chart For Premium Midsize Sedan
This has much more analysis to digest.

I think the chart below is pretty important. Notice that most of the top models are continuing to grow at a strong pace even as the Model 3 and other new models are introduced. So the Model 3 is not taking share from other EVs. BEVs as a group have growth 92% y/y. So clearly BEVs are taking share from ICE.

 

[adiggs]

Tesla Model 3 Tops European Sales Chart For Premium Midsize Sedan
This has much more analysis to digest.

...

Line 1 of the article:

Europe is now a very interesting place to watch car sales stats as the overall market decreased for the 6th consecutive month (year-over-year), while the plug-in electric car sales increased.

I'm thinking that growing EV sales within a larger decreasing market is exactly what I'd expect to see from a market that is waking up to the idea that you can get more for less by buying an EV. I am increasingly of the idea that EVs are so much better than their gasoline counterparts that we are coming up on an "industry Osborne" moment, where demand for the gas engine cars falls off a cliff. I don't mean shrinking 5% or 10% per year, which is at least kind of in line with the growth of EV sales.

I mean something more extreme - like the car buying public as a whole suddenly decides, with very little exception, that they're either buying new EV, used EV, used gas vehicle to tide them over to EV, or just waiting. In this world, the sum of ICEV and EV will shrink a lot while EV's are still ramping, and the ICEV manufacturers are going to see existential reductions in purchases.


My guess of the moment, is that the "industry Osborne" moment is between 10 and 20% market share, and I'm thinking that happens in the next couple of years. Not another decade as I think the ICEV manufacturers are thinking they have.

 

[jhm]

Line 1 of the article:



I'm thinking that growing EV sales within a larger decreasing market is exactly what I'd expect to see from a market that is waking up to the idea that you can get more for less by buying an EV. I am increasingly of the idea that EVs are so much better than their gasoline counterparts that we are coming up on an "industry Osborne" moment, where demand for the gas engine cars falls off a cliff. I don't mean shrinking 5% or 10% per year, which is at least kind of in line with the growth of EV sales.

I mean something more extreme - like the car buying public as a whole suddenly decides, with very little exception, that they're either buying new EV, used EV, used gas vehicle to tide them over to EV, or just waiting. In this world, the sum of ICEV and EV will shrink a lot while EV's are still ramping, and the ICEV manufacturers are going to see existential reductions in purchases.


My guess of the moment, is that the "industry Osborne" moment is between 10 and 20% market share, and I'm thinking that happens in the next couple of years. Not another decade as I think the ICEV manufacturers are thinking they have.

From what I hear, pickup trucks and SUVs are not as popular in Europe as in the US. So the attack from sedan EVs gives little room for ICE makers to hide in Europe. By contrast, in the US, there is this shift away from sedans toward trucks and SUVs. While that is a long-term trend, it does give some cover to the Osborne effect. In US ICE cars may be deeply Osborned at this point, but the shift to bulkier vehicles might still seem like a refuge both for automakers and auto buyers. Of course, the Model Y will take a bite out of that, but trucks will be seen as the last bastion of ICE. But all that is more of a US thing. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in Europe, where the Osborne effect will be faced head on.

 

[RobStark]

From what I hear, pickup trucks and SUVs are not as popular in Europe as in the US. So the attack from sedan EVs gives little room for ICE makers to hide in Europe. By contrast, in the US, there is this shift away from sedans toward trucks and SUVs. While that is a long-term trend, it does give some cover to the Osborne effect. In US ICE cars may be deeply Osborned at this point, but the shift to bulkier vehicles might still seem like a refuge both for automakers and auto buyers. Of course, the Model Y will take a bite out of that, but trucks will be seen as the last bastion of ICE. But all that is more of a US thing. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in Europe, where the Osborne effect will be faced head on.

If you consider the Model Y an SUV then SUVs are very popular in Europe and China.

Pickups are a tiny micro niche in Europe but maybe just a niche in China.

Ford is selling the F150 Raptor in China starting this year.

 

[RobStark]

FYI with Carlos Ghosn gone new Nissan CEO Hiroto Saikawa wants to focus on "profitability."

 

[neroden]

Line 1 of the article:



I'm thinking that growing EV sales within a larger decreasing market is exactly what I'd expect to see from a market that is waking up to the idea that you can get more for less by buying an EV. I am increasingly of the idea that EVs are so much better than their gasoline counterparts that we are coming up on an "industry Osborne" moment, where demand for the gas engine cars falls off a cliff. I don't mean shrinking 5% or 10% per year, which is at least kind of in line with the growth of EV sales.

I mean something more extreme - like the car buying public as a whole suddenly decides, with very little exception, that they're either buying new EV, used EV, used gas vehicle to tide them over to EV, or just waiting. In this world, the sum of ICEV and EV will shrink a lot while EV's are still ramping, and the ICEV manufacturers are going to see existential reductions in purchases.


My guess of the moment, is that the "industry Osborne" moment is between 10 and 20% market share, and I'm thinking that happens in the next couple of years. Not another decade as I think the ICEV manufacturers are thinking they have.

We've already reached "non-plugin car sales shrink year over year" in the US, and apparently Europe too, and also China. I think the Industry Osborne moment is happening right this minute. I'm not sure how many years of saved cash the carmarkers have -- some may go bust within two years; Toyota will last longer.

Zombie companies usually stagger along for at least two years, so we probably won't see the first obvious company failure until 2021. Fiat Chrysler, probably.