Well if you think its going to be that long, I'm interested in your opinion of the ethics of Tesla advertising FSD today on their website? And actually selling the upgrade today? I agree with you about the timing - its going to be quite a long time I'm afraid (hope I'm wrong).
What if 10 years pass and they still don't have FSD, and 500,000 people have paid for it? Isn't this going to be some kind of legal problem for Tesla?
I think it is a big ethical issue. I don't think it is intentional fraud, because Elon is so obviously afflicted with the mental disability of what a friend of mine calls chrono-optimism. I think he honestly believes Tesla will develop FSD soon enough to upload into the first Model 3. But I don't believe they will. And I believe that when FSD is available, the best implementations of it will use lidar or something more advanced and a more powerful computer, and if there is an implementation for Gen-1 Model 3 it will be inferior due to antiquated hardware.
But I don't think 500,000 people will have paid for it. A few who share Elon's chrono-optimism will. And I think there should be a point at which Tesla admits that it overshot and gives those people back their money with interest.
When you love someone you have to see their flaws with their strengths. I love Tesla. And Tesla has flaws. This, IMO, is one of them. I hope I am wrong and in 2 or 3 years all those people who paid for FSD get it, and the rest of us have the opportunity to pay to have it uploaded into our cars.