-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla doesn't pay retail...
Edit: The P motor is a binned stock motor, so the AWD price point is more accurate. EAP is 100% margin, so 35k + 9k (LR) + 5k (Interior) +5k (AWD) = 54k 20% GM puts it at 43.2k cost (if added to line as extra, then true marginal cost is lower), then they sell them later...
Last edited:
RTPEV
Active Member
Presuming they are going to build them (because that's what they said they were going to do), they are going to build them. I was merely responding to a comment suggesting that building these vehicles would be a way for them to defer sales of #200K to 3Q, and I pointed out that it's barely going to be a blip at current production rates.
Hi augkuo.
Thx for the pictures, but especially specifics like, the amount of carriers/carriers entering leaving, long distance or local, the date/time and the comments
One thing that is not entirely clear,in what sort of intervals are the carriers entering/leaving. I mean is it something like a early shift (from 7h00-12h00) , midday shift (12h00-17h00), evening shift (17h00-22h00), i.e. 3*5hours, or is it more 4*4 hours, f.e., (7h00-11h00), (11h00-15h00), (15h00-19h00), (19h00-23h00), or still something else ?
I tried to spreadsheet , yours and zorg data, to see how it looks versus production and delivery numbers...
Looks something like this..
apr/18 total transported 5753
date time long distance carriers local carriers carriers entering/leaving total carriers reporter comment cars per day cars per week
4/2 8h45 7 1 8 augkuo lot is filling 340 2380
4/5 8h45 8 1 9 augkuo
4/9 7h30 0 0 augkuo lot is filling
4/9 13h30 1 1 augkuo 145 1015
...
So for april 2018, I come to 5756 cars transported, for may 2018, I come to 8354 transported. June will be difficult, because of datapoints.
But I think it might point, to that there will not be a big spread between delivery figures and transport figures, and there will not be a big spread between transport figures, and production figures. The buffer between production and delivery figures is not only the amount of parking places, but more important , how much you want to stress the logistic chain, for "one off" things like delaying to 200k US deliveries..At the end of march there was a 10000 production figure, vs a 8000 delivery figure, so a 2000 difference. I might be mistaken, but I think that 2000 difference, might be repeated for the Q2 2018 production vs delivery figures. (which means that with delayed 200k US deliveries, a max of around 14000 US m3 + around 3000 canada m3 , will be delivered, which equals to 17000 m3 delivered for the quarter, vs 19000 m3 produced for the q2 quarter.
There are about 100 US stores and about 200 more outside the US. Not just cars for display in the store, but they could be making M3s for test drives and service loaners too. Many service departments are chronically short of loaners, often using used Model Ss that happen to be available, but the used cars don't stay in stock long. At the Portland service center they were complaining the sales people kept selling their service loaners as CPOs.
When the Model X was new Tesla did ship some Xs built for the American market overseas as advertising vehicles. They loaned them out to reporters and showed them in the stores overseas. They could ship some Model 3s out of the country for this purpose too.
They could end up soaking up a day or two's production this way pretty easily. In a month they could sell most of them as demo cars to people who wanted to jump line and get an M3 right then. They usually discount the demo cars, but those they could probably sell at full retail with no discount.
I do think July is going to be Tesla's best sales month in the company's history and it will be a record that will likely stand for a while.
I think we're looking at a somewhat smaller number for U.S. deliveries and much bigger number for Canada. Like 10k+. Looking at the Canadian threads, it seems the demand there is much higher than in U.S. population-wise. Like 2-2.5 times higher.
The rest of production should be "in transit"/parked or fill the demo/loaner roles to not count towards 200k.
Only 75 U.S. SCs exist per https://www.tesla.com/findus/list/services/United States
Good point but that's not what I meant. Tesla needs to sell every car for the next 3 weeks at least to keep pushing bottom line up. The minimum price is$49k * 200 but could actually be much much higher. My point is not that it costs them to make those cars minus GM. My point is that they want to stick it to shorts. Not reason to hold$10+ million inventory in stores to achieve that (FOR NOW). And yes, for each demo car, it will count as one less car sold at$49k+. This will change as they cross 5k/week and keep pushing higher rate so at that point, it makes sense to populate SC with demo cars.
RedOctober
Member
Good point, we sometimes forget about the lost profits of those cars sitting in showrooms.
Assuming S/X sale is flat, Tesla already sold more Model 3s than last quarter. Withholding delivery is more important selling additional 200 Model 3 and cross the 200K sold in the US
Tesla didnt send 10000 invites out to canadian reservation holders. Following troys model 3 invites sheet.. 264 invites were reported on 27 march and another batch of 160 on 23 april.If you account for 10% of reservation holders filling in troys model 3 invites google sheet, that would account to 4240 canadians getting invites. And if the average of 20% defer there invites.. not more then 3400 would configure.. Even if canadians would underreport massively on troys google sheet compared to us citizens.. more then 6800 configurations you will not get out of them.And I had the impression that a bigger percentage of canadians deferred then us citizens deferred, due to awd, so I think the 3000 number will not be far of the mark.
What 10%? The last I checked there were like 5K U.S. entries there compared to estimated 200K+ reservations. I.e. more like 2%. And I found out the spreadsheet is quite unreliable/skewed in the sense that people pick and choose when to fill it out. Plus the whole mess w/ 2 spreadsheets instead of one, I wouldn't trust it too much at this point other than for distribution of config options.
Btw, considering that Elon gave shorts 3 weeks... He's going to say something after Q2... What can he say that will change the situation dramatically? He already swore in Q1 he'll get to 5k/week. I'm thinking that Q2 numbers might be very close to profitability, i.e. we might be underestimating Canada deliveries. I can be mistaken of course, all a speculation.
There's 2 months severance for 10k layoffs that will probably count towards Q2.
Last edited:
My model S had ~2000 miles on it when I bought it. So maybe 100 test drives?
Tesla offered it to me for about 7% off the sticker price. I believe they still made a profit on the car.
4000 entries of the 5000 entries in the spreadsheet, have the invite date filled in. The spreadsheet is a representation , of the amount of invites, send out by tesla, not of the amount of reservations that are out in the wild. The spreadsheet "grows" , when tesla sends out a new batch of invites.
You're welcome - also some of the long distance carriers are really long distance as in going to NY, etc. whereas most of them are shuttling cars to staging areas like the railyard in Richmond (about 40 miles from the factory). Each car carrier takes about 45 minutes to load the car and they make 2.5 trips a day to the staging areas.
I could be wrong (maybe someone could help me out) but haven't there already been over 3000 confirmed sighting just within the Canadian Mega-delivery centers?
MissyMcBee
Member
T
The spreadsheet grows only if/when people who know about the spreadsheets use it. It is not tied to Tesla ... only to the great folks who created the spreadsheet in TMC. Unfortunately, with two spreadsheets, the data may be skewed if they are both not used to provide updates.
Ok, I can't vouch for what percentage of Canadians populates spreadsheet and if that matches U.S. or they are more lazy.
What I saw is that non-owners with March 2018 reservations were getting invites. Even looking at spreadsheet, you can see 90+% were invited.
Day 1&2 accounted for >50% of all reservations.
So, how many reservations total? I thought population-wise 11% of U.S. But per their threads it's much higher, likely 40k+.
So, if 36k are invited, how many went for FP? With rebate expiring in couple of provinces, I think 10k is likely.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I got my invite on Apr 18th, configured on Jun 14th. I haven't updated either CJ's or Troy's databases, so both still show me as "deferring" I imagine. I have a few reasons for not wanting to update the database any more.
1) With Tesla "leaking" production #s every other week, I see less value in crowd sourced VIN tracking
2) The splitting of the database left a bad taste
3) The incessant thumb twiddling based on VIN tracking is pretty annoying
Tesla is making over 3500/wk now, and moving on to 5000/wk. I'm going to just chillax and let them do their job, and take delivery when my car is ready, whenever that may be.
MissyMcBee
Member
I agree with your assessment of the spreadsheet... very disappointing that it was split.
Similar threads
