Friend(s) of JP - Conversations with Nicu

[dsm363]

I think SA has a public policy for deleting comments or banning people / accounts. I have just checked, I cannot delete a comment on my articles. As far as I know, TMC is private property where we only have privileges but no rights.

Of course you do not believe what you say (given even the title of this thread). But as far as I know, when JP is under contract, he charges in a day what I make in about 6 weeks (sometimes I wonder why I did a PhD). That thing with the monetary value from one article on SA being the equivalent of a short phone call with a client is no metaphor. I am amazed by the energy he spends not only collecting data and trying to share it in his articles, but also answering to so many comments. It is in that sense that I said he is a valuable resource once one can stay polite (he will not attempt to put you down for ignorance, only for aggressive ignorance).

He reports people to SA which then bans them without warning or cause really. 'Aggressive ignorance' whatever that means should be educated, not put down. If he truly is an expert and someone has something wrong and isn't calling him stupid, he has no cause to say they live in a fairy land and have the intelligence of a fifth grader (a common putdown of his). I guess you see him in the most positive light possible.

He is welcome to start a thread here and name calling or putdowns on either side will not be tolerated.

 

[Norbert]

What JP argued in his last article is that some tech is in its twilight (not all batteries, of course, just this format 18650). He may be wrong, but most data we have suggest not. Tesla will find itself at a crossroad and the choices do not look rosy in the mid-term. Long-term, most problems can be solved but today it is too hard to see exactly how and which companies will benefit.

Tesla uses 18650 only because it provides better $/kWh and specific other technical advantages. And that's what 18650 actually provides, according to the data we have. Calling that "twilight" seems a bit of a distortion to me, if not an implied insult. If a battery manufacturers is able (and willing) to provide better and more cost-effective technology in any other format, Tesla will surely be happy to switch at a moment's notice. Tesla is not stuck with a "twilight" technology, they are free to choose whichever technology they consider best for the customer.

If manufacturers don't provide that, and aren't willing to consider Tesla (and the rest of the market with similar priorities) as a sufficient market, then Tesla may build their own battery factories, which I think would be a good thing in the first place. Unless you think Tesla/Elon are bluffing when they talk about that. I actually wanted Tesla to do that since the beginning (as soon as they have sufficient means to do so). Nissan does so as well, with a lower total annual battery capacity going into Leafs. (in the US, at least.)

Should Tesla adopt inferior technology just to follow the example of laptop manufacturers who want a thin format? Why? Electric cars will be a much larger market for batteries, it doesn't make any sense. They should build the batteries square or octagonal or round or whatever produces the best results. Shouldn't be a real problem to continue using an already established format.

 

[brianman]

So I'd like to share my problem with JP's articles. I'm not an expert on the battery tech, but I am a Ph.D. in Power Systems Engineering and have spend the bulk of my research studying distribution grids and EV interactions with them. I am also a reviewer for the IEEE and review conference and journal articles to see if they are fit for publication. One of JP's articles attacked Tesla saying that there was a serious shortage on distribution system capacity and his source was an article from Power and Energy Magazine, a publication of the Power and Energy Society of which I am a member. Note that this magazine does not have the same level of technical content as the PES Journals. I was very familiar with the article in question, and the conclusion of the article was that EVs had the potential to cause problems if no new solutions are developed, but then it also listed the many different solutions that were currently under development to solve these issues. I myself have published numerous articles on the solutions to the potential problem of lots of EVs on the distribution grid.

JP's article went so far as to claim the IEEE was agreeing with him and his conclusions that EVs could not be adopted on the distribution grid. I took his assertions to task in the comments based on my background in full technical reviewer mode, I told him that he had misquoted the article, the article didn't mean the IEEE agreed with him, but rather they allowed it to be printed, his own analysis was woefully ignorant of the current state-of-the-art of distribution grids and research and lacked adequate citations to back up the conclusions.

His response was to delete and modify some of the comments that I took him to task on so my comment looked out of context, and then mock me in his reply to mine.

After that I stopped reading, for I realized that on some subjects he was completely ignorant of, he would rather attack the experts in the field to save face than actually get to the truth of the matter. Note I didn't attack him, but the particular article he wrote, since he was misrepresenting the society of which I am a member and reviewer. If he was so wrong about that, I imagine he could be equally wrong about everything else he says.

I'd like to hear Nico's thoughts on this, and -- frankly -- JP's response to such allegations.

This is not the first example of what appears to be journalistic and ethical challenges regarding JP. Without journalistic integrity and general ethics, nothing JP says is worth the attention of anyone.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

In Elon we trust!

I would rather blindly trust Elon's word than anybody's "well thought out" research on this subject.

Even when he said that in TSLA's price a flawless future is assumed?

Could you please agree that this is emotional investing and it's blind fate?

 

[dsm363]

I'd like to hear Nico's thoughts on this, and -- frankly -- JP's response to such allegations.

This is not the first example of what appears to be journalistic and ethical challenges regarding JP. Without journalistic integrity and general ethics, nothing JP says is worth the attention of anyone.

Agree. I'd love to here how this is explained. Those that went to TESLIVE and saw rolosrevenge talk can say he knows his stuff. JP has been wrong so many times on so many levels that just because he is right now and then doesn't mean his expert analysis is any good.

 

[brianman]

Those that went to TESLIVE [and] saw rolosrevenge talk and he knows his stuff.

Yup. Note that not everybody saw rolo's talk (it was one of the session choices).

 

[rolosrevenge]

Even when he said that in TSLA's price a flawless future is assumed?

Could you please agree that this emotional investing and it's blind fate?

This is why I sold my shares, if I've learned anything about Tesla, they can't launch without hiccups, the hiccups are not fatal, but it does mean delays, since this stock price assumes flawless execution, I expect there to be some serious dropping when they miss their first Model X release date or only release 10 or so and then it's months of nothing. Long term, they'll nail it, but flawless execution along the way, I seriously doubt it, but then again, I could be wrong.

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Agree. I'd love to here how this is explained. Those that went to TESLIVE saw rolosrevenge talk and he knows his stuff. JP has been wrong so many times on so many levels that just because he is right now and then doesn't mean his expert analysis is any good.

I know my stuff on that topic :redface: I actually recommended him to redact the whole article he wrote since it was so easily proved wrong and it would pull down his "thesis"

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

After that I stopped reading, for I realized that on some subjects he was completely ignorant of, he would rather attack the experts in the field to save face than actually get to the truth of the matter. Note I didn't attack him, but the particular article he wrote, since he was misrepresenting the society of which I am a member and reviewer. If he was so wrong about that, I imagine he could be equally wrong about everything else he says.

This is indeed his fault (if things are as you say, I have no reason to believe otherwise, but no hard proof either - please note that he cannot decide to delete comments, only to report them to SA, and anybody could report "abuses"). He is definitely not a scientist or an engineer, and if he has some expertise and up to date information, it is in the battery industry (not the science), not on the grid (in previous decades he also worked with the oil and mining industry).

I've always said one should use his own filters and thinking and pick up the real information which is hard to find otherwise, but I have to admit that such behavior surprises me. I have seen him many times refrain from commenting on matters where he has no expertise and recognizing his limits. I genuinely admire persons who know to say "I don't know!" - many times you get this answer from the most knowledgeable people.

 

[rolosrevenge]

He only deleted his comments so mine were out of context, a proper redaction should have the comment edited with the line through it and a followup agreeing that the comment was wrong.

 

[dsm363]

I know my stuff on that topic :redface: I actually recommended him to redact the whole article he wrote since it was so easily proved wrong and it would pull down his "thesis"

Anyone who can talk on a highly technical topic like this with such authority and also carry around a flip phone demands respect:smile: I thought it was a great talk so thanks.

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This is indeed his fault (if things are as you say, I have no reason to believe otherwise, but no hard proof either - please note that he cannot decide to delete comments, only to report them to SA, and anybody could report "abuses"). He is definitely not a scientist or an engineer, and if he has some expertise and up to date information, it is in the battery industry (not the science), not on the grid (in previous decades he also worked with the oil and mining industry).

I've always said one should use his own filters and thinking and pick up the real information which is hard to find otherwise, but I have to admit that such behavior surprises me. I have seen him many times refrain from commenting on matters where he has no expertise and recognizing his limits. I genuinely admire persons who know to say "I don't know!" - many times you get this answer from the most knowledgeable people.

That is not his style though. He seems to make up or find data to support his thesis then when someone who does have expertise in the area like rolosrevenge comes along, he shouts them down, calls them names or reports them to SA for a ban. SA always seems to ban people at the drop of a hat without good reason (no threats, foul language, taunts...etc, just reasoned arguments that go against the author's thesis or makes them look bad).

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

This is why I sold my shares, if I've learned anything about Tesla, they can't launch without hiccups, the hiccups are not fatal, but it does mean delays, since this stock price assumes flawless execution, I expect there to be some serious dropping when they miss their first Model X release date or only release 10 or so and then it's months of nothing. Long term, they'll nail it, but flawless execution along the way, I seriously doubt it, but then again, I could be wrong.

Tesla has done impossible things. Never before even a normal car (let alone the best car on so many levels) has been put together in such a short time, starting from no team, no factory, nothing. Shorts were betting that even if Tesla is exceptionally good, there will be big problems and they will get rich. Tesla's team was way above that level and shorts lost. Btw, Model X has already been delayed by one year or so.

But as you say, perfection is priced in. And even Tesla is not perfect and they act in a given economical and physical world and even them cannot walk on water. If only Model X was priced to perfection, it would not be so bad. But Model E (Gen3) is priced in to perfection. This should be scary for over-leveraged longs.

I am trying to figure out a plan to short it (with puts) even if a rational economic agent would simply stay away from a bubble
This is nothing personal, I do admire Tesla, but they are still far from a $20B company.

 

[wycolo]

> this is why I sold my shares, [rolosrevenge]

You make it sound like you dumped them, not even waiting for a peak. It surely is no crime to take profits when needed, or even better to establish a new position with profits only, taking your original investment out and putting it to work elsewhere. Cramer-speak for 'playing with the house's money'. But taking profits on a regular basis, with taxes in mind, should be every investor's goal. Don't want to be that poor soul who had xxxx shares of Enron stashed away year after year, didn't follow the news, and ended up with zilch, nada, nichts.
--

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

He only deleted his comments so mine were out of context, a proper redaction should have the comment edited with the line through it and a followup agreeing that the comment was wrong.

You can delete your own comments, but only for a few minutes after posting them. Are you sure it was not some kind of misunderstanding before things heated up? Once a "fight" starts, it is very hard to know who hit who and why.

 

[rolosrevenge]

I only posted three comments at once, one on the article in general, and two replies to different conversations he was having where his assertions were extremely far off. Then I just went back the next day to see his responses and left it at that. I didn't want to do a shouting match, just get out the truth since he was misrepresenting the position of the IEEE and the PES.

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> this is why I sold my shares, [rolosrevenge]

You make it sound like you dumped them, not even waiting for a peak. It surely is no crime to take profits when needed, or even better to establish a new position with profits only, taking your original investment out and putting it to work elsewhere. Cramer-speak for 'playing with the house's money'. But taking profits on a regular basis, with taxes in mind, should be every investor's goal. Don't want to be that poor soul who had xxxx shares of Enron stashed away year after year, didn't follow the news, and ended up with zilch, nada, nichts.
--

True. This is why I sold my shares at a 300% profit, I'm just waiting for the drop to get back in, never thought It'd go this high this fast, I could have been at a 550%

 

[brianman]

You can delete your own comments, but only for a few minutes after posting them. Are you sure it was not some kind of misunderstanding before things heated up? Once a "fight" starts, it is very hard to know who hit who and why.

Ok, someone has to call you on this.

I think the onus is on you to follow up with JP on this, not on everybody else on the planet to see if they misunderstood. Take some responsibility for your friend's behavior -- by following up and making thing right -- rather than putting this task on other people. There's a chorus here giving you rich information and you seem to refuse to want to contact your friend about it. At a certain point you have to choose whether your own ethics allow you to keep deflecting or not.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Ok, someone has to call you on this.

I think the onus is on you to follow up with JP on this, not on everybody else on the planet to see if they misunderstood. Take some responsibility for your friend's behavior -- by following up and making thing right -- rather than putting this task on other people. There's a chorus here giving you rich information and you seem to refuse to want to contact your friend about it. At a certain point you have to choose whether your own ethics allow you to keep deflecting or not.

I am not accusing anyone here. I just wanted to better understand the situation from the only person who knows and would agree to speak about the incident. I will definitely not open up old things like that, I had my own altercations with JP (about Tesla, obviously).

My friend or not, no one is perfect. I do stupid things from time to time that I would qualify as lowly from other people. Who am I to judge a one year old fact for which I have only general lines description?

 

[rolosrevenge]

At the time I think you had a few hours to delete or alter comments.

Oh, I just noticed this is my 1000th post.

 

[brianman]

I am not accusing anyone here.

You insinuated that the person with no power (the poster) has the responsibility of making sure there wasn't a misunderstanding rather than the one with power (JP). JP (or his friends as SA) 'allegedly' played "moderation games" not the commenters.

Isn't that kind of like saying that the responsibility is on the citizen to make sure that the cop didn't misread his radar gun?

 

[dsm363]

I am not accusing anyone here. I just wanted to better understand the situation with the only person who would agree to speak about the incident. I will definitely not open up old things like that, I had my own altercations with JP (about Tesla, obviously).

So you are good friends with JP and a big defender of his when multiple people have given evidence of his behavior and you are not willing to ask him about this incident or have him comment? Maybe he has learned something since those comments were deleted or didn't know about that and can have them restored. Out of everyone here you seem to have the best access to him.

 

[brianman]

So you are good friends with JP and a big defender of his when multiple people have given evidence of his behavior and you are not willing to ask him about this incident or have him comment? Maybe he has learned something since those comments were deleted or didn't know about that and can have them restored. Out of everyone here you seem to have the best access to him.

A true friend calls you on stuff when you step out of line and tries to help you make it right.