Friend(s) of JP - Conversations with Nicu

[Dan5]

With Axion, you can call me investor. I may sell after the first 10x or so some shares to cover initial investment and tax, but the bigger part of my investment will not be unloaded below $10 - that will be several years from now and I started accumulating 25 months ago. With Tesla and Apple, I am surely a speculator, because my main focus is on options (I also have some shares in AAPL and at the moment no position at all in TSLA).

The thing with Axion as a good bet, I think there are several things to justify it. They already have the technology and production lines, it's not like there is a chance they succeed (compare that to biotech, of which I know nothing btw). Then, their tech is not "cool", which means the stock is not overvalued, on the contrary. Moreover, we have as close to inside information as possible while still being legal, a guy who knows the company and large chunks of the industry inside out, follows recent developments (from outside), explains them for free and can even answer your questions if you ask politely. Many have chosen to demonize him (see the title of this thread), but I have found value. As always, you have to use your own filter for what he thinks, he is just one guy with his biases and nobody can reliably predict stock prices.

I tend to disagree, I don't think Axion will be able to stave off the wolves for years. They do have the trucking, but the microhybrids is a dead horse with the the recent price hybrid drop and price competition between toyota and ford. It's a matter of 19 K for a Prius or 17.5 K for a microhybird corolla; I'd pay the extra 1.5 K for the Prius, also the motovation for the microhybrid development just is not there, at least in the US- shows no significant different in the new 5 cycle EPA test.

The BMW "testing", which they have been doing since 2007 will probably not come to bear fruits. Axion lost the military grant years ago, their partner Exide filed for bankruptcy. Energy storage is going to be highly competative with used EV batteries. The only good aspect is the trucking, BUT again, Firefly Energy Internationl seems to have years of a headstart on them with mass transit testing.

In order for Axion to be successful, they have to beat Firefly to market, and when Firefly gets into the market keep their prices lower (price war ensues), then used lithium EV batteries come to market and completely wipe out their market due to low cost of "used" EV batteries being used for the same applications. It's hard to compete when your competitors are more or less getting their batteries for "free". Axion has about 10 years of the trucking market left, 2 of which they can dominate, after that, it's game over and that is starting today, so they really need to start moving it along.

If I could short AXPW I would, but the finances of shorting a penny stock make it not worth it (they want me to have $2.5 per share in reserve, which makes it a lousy ROI)

 

[JRP3]

as for JP, he has introduced Axion to a large audience and some have decided to buy; you think he is lying, I think he does not - I actually think he does a service to both the company (and therefore himself) and investors who otherwise would not know about Axion;

Yes, that "service" has provided us investors with a nice loss to date :wink: While I think Petersen is an arrogant blowhard who tries to twist reality for his own gain, and while I have gained more joy than distress while watching my small position in AXPW shrink because I know it hits him much harder, I would not feel badly if the stock turned around and he made a couple of bucks, nor do I care if he gets a few pennies from my clicks on his articles. Initially I feared his articles might do some damage to Tesla and EV's because no one was countering his outright lies about the technology. Now he gets swarmed with commenters taking him apart piece by piece and he has lost all credibility by being so completely wrong so many times that at this point I think he has the opposite effect. A Petersen article about Tesla usually corresponds with a nice uptick in the stock price, so post away Mr. P!

 

[vgrinshpun]

Thanks for the advice, but I've got my sweet profits from TSLA at the best possible time (being crushed by AAPL). If it goes above $180 in the short term, I will get back in, but this time with puts - I still admire the company, execution, want to buy the car - have seen my configuration in "person" in Munich last month - etc. etc. but I make a conscious effort to separate emotions from trading decisions (as I do with Axion, I try to isolate it from the fact that JP is my personal friend).

If you are curious, I have predicted a 10x in TSLA and separately the short squeeze about two years ago (but unfortunately for the short squeeze, being right too early it's not (much) better than being wrong - instead of $200k I could have made about $1M if it started 1st March instead of 1st April and more than $4M if it started 1st January)
Potential 10x Stock Idea: Why I Believe Tesla Is the Next Apple
Tesla: The Looming Short Squeeze

Ok, at least I tried. We'll check our notes in several months. Needless to say that I am holding my position in Tesla long term and goal of my trading on margin is share accumulation. The only time I use puts is when feel that I need protection from the margin call. As a side note I have an absolute blast of a time with my Model S, have 4,000 miles on the thing in 6 weeks - an exceptional piece! The best part, of course, is that it is going to be paid by those who shorted TSLA.

Regarding John Petersen, he is just dead wrong on TSLA.

 

[dsm363]

What has JP gotten right over the last three years especially in terms of his investment advice of Axion vs Tesla?

 

[smorgasbord]

smorgasbord, when you say you would not invest even if you knew it is a good bet, this is emotion/QUOTE]

That's not exactly what I said. I get your point, Nicu, but avoiding investing in a stock due to personal choice is not risky and not something anyone needs to avoid, which is exactly what you claimed. The danger is when you invest in something because of emotion. I'm not doing that. It's not a "perfect example." But, thanks for playing.


Note that Petersen is really lousy at predicting the future. He has been 100% wrong on AXPW and TSLA stock prices and trends. He has been 100% wrong on the difficulties Tesla would have in raising money, selling cars, maintaining demand - not to mention predicting Wall Street's reaction to these events. At the same time has been 100% wrong on Axion's raising money, selling batteries, and kickstarting demand - not to mention predicting Wall Street's reaction to these events. First Northern-Southern was going to big the Big Deal. Then it was BMW. Then there was the PowerCube. Then something about cranes. I haven't paid enough attention to know what other deals he's predicted that haven't happened. He even expected AXPW to get government grants, but apparently even the government thought Fisker was a better idea than Axion.

If anyone had tried to be as wrong as Petersen has been I don't think they could have. His prediction of AXPW and TLSA stock price crossing, for instance, is now wrong by over 3 orders of magnitude. That's outstandingly bad!

He has not done a service to anybody expect himself and Axion trying to remain a viable company. He is unethical. He has brought investors into a risky stock that has steadily declined in value in the past few years. He has artificially pumped up the stock price to support his large initial investment (purportedly a million bucks). He has made people wrongly concerned about Tesla safety, he has told people that EVs pollute more than ICE cars, that peak oil is a myth, etc., etc. He performs is a dis-service to the world at large.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Note that Petersen is really lousy at predicting the future. He has been 100% wrong on AXPW and TSLA stock prices and trends. He has been 100% wrong on the difficulties Tesla would have in raising money, selling cars, maintaining demand - not to mention predicting Wall Street's reaction to these events. At the same time has been 100% wrong on Axion's raising money, selling batteries, and kickstarting demand - not to mention predicting Wall Street's reaction to these events.

You could say that Peterson has been a perfect predictor: whatever he says, do the opposite!

 

[Dan5]

You could say that Peterson has been a perfect predictor: whatever he says, do the opposite!

Yes, remember how he said to go long on Exide and short Tesla....

Classic example of infinite losses for shorting when it comes to stocks.

 

[rolosrevenge]

You could say that Peterson has been a perfect predictor: whatever he says, do the opposite!

Once heard of a professor that would give 100 question true/false tests and give you 200% if you got every question wrong. Peterson should try and sign up for that.

 

[30seconds]

yes the r-squared is still >.9

but you still need to know which way the line slopes!

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

The best part, of course, is that it is going to be paid by those who shorted TSLA.

If I can give an advice in exchange, sell enough of TSLA so that profits pay for your car after tax. Then even in the worst case you keep your sweet ride for free. Maxing out leverage and going on margin is begging for disaster. In the best case, you just gain a bit less but sleep much better in the meantime.

- - - Updated - - -

Yes, remember how he said to go long on Exide and short Tesla....

Classic example of infinite losses for shorting when it comes to stocks.

You should go and check my comments on those pair trades articles of his.

- - - Updated - - -

That's not exactly what I said. I get your point, Nicu, but avoiding investing in a stock due to personal choice is not risky and not something anyone needs to avoid, which is exactly what you claimed. The danger is when you invest in something because of emotion. I'm not doing that. It's not a "perfect example." But, thanks for playing.

I did not say you did the most dangerous type of emotional investing, just that some investing decisions are 100% emotional - I'm sorry if you do not see the difference, I could not help you further. Unfortunately many on TMC do it (the most dangerous way) by maxing out leverage on this TSLA bubble.

- - - Updated - - -

What has JP gotten right over the last three years especially in terms of his investment advice of Axion vs Tesla?

Ironically he was right on many things, but definitely wrong on AXPW and TSLA until now. That said, pas and future are not symmetric, will see.

 

[james_chen70]

Axion (AXPW) is a penny stock! It is a penny stock for a reason. Good luck, John Petersen...

 

[qwk]

smorgasbord, when you say you would not invest even if you knew it is a good bet, this is emotion/QUOTE]

That's not exactly what I said. I get your point, Nicu, but avoiding investing in a stock due to personal choice is not risky and not something anyone needs to avoid, which is exactly what you claimed. The danger is when you invest in something because of emotion. I'm not doing that. It's not a "perfect example." But, thanks for playing.


Note that Petersen is really lousy at predicting the future. He has been 100% wrong on AXPW and TSLA stock prices and trends. He has been 100% wrong on the difficulties Tesla would have in raising money, selling cars, maintaining demand - not to mention predicting Wall Street's reaction to these events. At the same time has been 100% wrong on Axion's raising money, selling batteries, and kickstarting demand - not to mention predicting Wall Street's reaction to these events. First Northern-Southern was going to big the Big Deal. Then it was BMW. Then there was the PowerCube. Then something about cranes. I haven't paid enough attention to know what other deals he's predicted that haven't happened. He even expected AXPW to get government grants, but apparently even the government thought Fisker was a better idea than Axion.

If anyone had tried to be as wrong as Petersen has been I don't think they could have. His prediction of AXPW and TLSA stock price crossing, for instance, is now wrong by over 3 orders of magnitude. That's outstandingly bad!

He has not done a service to anybody expect himself and Axion trying to remain a viable company. He is unethical. He has brought investors into a risky stock that has steadily declined in value in the past few years. He has artificially pumped up the stock price to support his large initial investment (purportedly a million bucks). He has made people wrongly concerned about Tesla safety, he has told people that EVs pollute more than ICE cars, that peak oil is a myth, etc., etc. He performs is a dis-service to the world at large.

Yep. And to top it all of, he went and drove the Model S, and said it was Meh. That there tells you all you need to know.

AXPW is as good as BK. Like stated above, if it wasn't for the bad ROI of shorting penny stocks, this is as sure of a short bet as they come.

 

[MikeC]

I make a conscious effort to separate emotions from trading decisions (as I do with Axion, I try to isolate it from the fact that JP is my personal friend).

What?! JP doesn't seem to me like the kind of guy that would have friends.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

What?! JP doesn't seem to me like the kind of guy that would have friends.

After "fighting" on SA for several months, while staying polite, he was very kind to invite me and my family to his previous very nice place
Fribourg : Le chteau de Barbereche
He is very funny, friendly and generous but would not tolerate any kind of abuse or unfounded vociferous comments from commenters on his articles. So you guys who discovered his "anti-Tesla" articles recently and telling him he will eat crow (or already should) - been there, done that.
The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [Maxwell Technologies Inc., Valence Technology, Inc.] - Seeking Alpha

 

[Dan5]

With all respect, for most of the stuff that he was right about, 99% of people who follow the industry would have been right also.

The A123 prediction was a no brainer; I called it and advised a few friends that that could be a short candidate on facebook. They did an epic fail with Fisker, same with others, they banked on Nissan, Ford, and GM selling hundrends of thousands of EVs a year.

Here's what he was right about
A123, Sanyo, and a handful of small fries

Here's what he was wrong about
Exide, maxwell, Tesla, AXPW

 

[Krugerrand]

...but would not tolerate any kind of abuse or unfounded vociferous comments from commenters on his articles.

He gets what he gives and it's just that simple, Nicu. If he'd refrain from name calling and writing in a style and tone that suggests he's somehow superior to the rest of us plebes and knows something no one else possibly could, even the most diehard Tesla fans would treat him better. You earn the respect of others, you don't command it. The world is no longer run by Monarchies and even when it was, the most obnoxious of the bunch tended to be overthrown/stabbed/poisoned etc... many times by family members and closest friends and confidantes. You might mention that to him.

 

[JRP3]

After "fighting" on SA for several months, while staying polite,... He is very funny, friendly and generous but would not tolerate any kind of abuse or unfounded vociferous comments from commenters on his articles.

Sorry Nicu, since I was on the receiving end of many of his completely uncalled for personal attacks when he had no counter for my data I have to call out BS on that one. He was abusive and rude to many, which is why he received the same in kind. What's shocking is how easily you let some personal contact with him cloud your judgement and allowed you to rewrite history in such a manner.
Sal Demir in his recent SA article uses a fictional character named "Johann Bitterson" :biggrin: I LOL'd hard at that one.

 

[Jack6591]

Why are we renting space to this guy?

 

[StapleGun]

Ironically he was right on many things, but definitely wrong on AXPW and TSLA until now. That said, pas and future are not symmetric, will see.

The past is actually a pretty good indicator of the future, usually it's referred to as "evidence".

 

[Yggdrasill]

The past is actually a pretty good indicator of the future, usually it's referred to as "evidence".

Sure, but try driving a car while only looking out the back window...

In investing it's a good thing to constantly reassess one's assumptions. I'm confident that Tesla, the company, will do well. I'm less confident TSLA, the stock, will do well. It cetainly *might* do well, but there's a significant potential for a massive crash. I prefer less volatility.