Friend(s) of JP - Conversations with Nicu

[sleepyhead]

Even when he said that in TSLA's price a flawless future is assumed?

Could you please agree that this is emotional investing and it's blind fate?

No it's not, I did my research and TSLA is still a bargain at these prices (unless we hit a recession/bear market, which we won't).

Tesla has done impossible things. Never before even a normal car (let alone the best car on so many levels) has been put together in such a short time, starting from no team, no factory, nothing. Shorts were betting that even if Tesla is exceptionally good, there will be big problems and they will get rich. Tesla's team was way above that level and shorts lost. Btw, Model X has already been delayed by one year or so.

But as you say, perfection is priced in. And even Tesla is not perfect and they act in a given economical and physical world and even them cannot walk on water. If only Model X was priced to perfection, it would not be so bad. But Model E (Gen3) is priced in to perfection. This should be scary for over-leveraged longs.

You are completely wrong on this. We know Model S demand is above 50k worldwide and if Model X is the same you will have 100k cars sold at ASP of $100k for annualized sales of $10bn just 2 or 3 years from now (this is your "perfect execution" scenario). $20bn market cap and $10bn in sales = 2x price to sales multiple which is a bargain for a company like Tesla. Oh, and this means that Model E is a free option at current prices and Model S/X isn't even priced for perfection.

I am trying to figure out a plan to short it (with puts) even if a rational economic agent would simply stay away from a bubble
This is nothing personal, I do admire Tesla, but they are still far from a $20B company.

We had this discussion prior to Q2 earnings when Tesla was around $110 - $120. I was buying calls and you told me I was wrong and you were buying puts. Turns out I was right and if you do buy puts, you are going to be wrong again.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

A true friend calls you on stuff when you step out of line and tries to help you make it right.

If that would be a recent thing that I saw happening, I might (sometimes one has to weight the cost and the gain of such thing; we met once and exchange PM every month or two, it's not like we're engaged and have to solve all potential clouds before some important event). JP has 25k comments and you want me to ask him about some comment he deleted one or two years ago while insinuating he did this on purpose to hide ignorance? If he did not accept the situation then, why would he do it now?

 

[Norbert]

For the record, today is a Sunday and Friday's closing price was $166.97.

 

[sleepyhead]

For the record, today is a Sunday and Friday's closing price was $166.97.

And for the record, sleepyhead says that TSLA is going up from here because it is not priced for perfection as Nicu says it is; not even close to perfection.

 

[dsm363]

If that would be a recent thing that I saw happening, I might (sometimes one has to weight the cost and the gain of such thing; we met once and exchange PM every month or two, it's not like we're engaged and have to solve all potential clouds before some important event). JP has 25k comments and you want me to ask him about some comment he deleted one or two years ago while insinuating he did this on purpose to hide ignorance? If he did not accept the situation then, why would he do it now?

Well then bring up that specific article and I'm sure when can get rolosrevenge to re-write what is wrong with it for you to pass along. Then report back if he is willing to amend his article or write a followup article with what he as learned. You've positioned yourself here as a good friend and big supporter of JP yet you now say you've only met him once and exchange the occasional PM.

 

[brianman]

If that would be a recent thing that I saw happening, I might (sometimes one has to weight the cost and the gain of such thing; we met once and exchange PM every month or two, it's not like we're engaged and have to solve all potential clouds before some important event). JP has 25k comments and you want me to ask him about some comment he deleted one or two years ago while insinuating he did this on purpose to hide ignorance? If he did not accept the situation then, why would he do it now?

It's always easy to find an excuse for inaction. You have several examples from this thread of people that have apparently been treated improperly by JP regarding his articles. Pick one that seems to have merit and follow up through completion. Perhaps you'll learn something. Perhaps he will. Perhaps the other affected parties will as well.

Doing nothing and then just chiming in on TMC as you've done so far in this thread without follow-up action is just making things worse.

From what I've seen in this thread (and others), I have a low enough opinion of JP that I don't even click a link on anything where his name is even mentioned. It feels like it's just not worth my time or anyone else's.

Continuing on the way you have been with this thread frankly starts to put your posts in the same light. Take from that what you will.

People are judged by their actions, their friends, and combinations of both.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

We had this discussion prior to Q2 earnings when Tesla was around $110 - $120. I was buying calls and you told me I was wrong and you were buying puts. Turns out I was right and if you do buy puts, you are going to be wrong again.

Congrats! If I start a short play, I will be prepared to be wrong several times, even all of them, because there is no way to time a bubble burst. But sometimes you just have to play the odds if you aim for outsized gains.

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dsm363, brianman - you may have got my intentions / message wrong. I am not here to defend JP as a person, just as a source of information that I think most of the time has more value than pain (energy / time loss). After a week or two, he considers articles "not alive" as very few people check them anymore (he barely answers any comments, I have a feeling he likes to have the last word on some issues). They have indeed an importance as an archive, but they are not important enough to me to make any efforts. rolos' story is the first that made me have second thoughts here, but I will simply integrate that in my database and that's it. I do not feel I should find excuses for anything above.

About friendship (wow guys, you transform this into a soap opera): well, when someone invites you to his place for a week-end (and in a foreign country) and takes great care of you, I call him / her a friend. We keep in touch for two years and I can ask whatever information he could help with. But I would not call him to tell him about my daily problems. Heck, I barely talk to anyone about that. He's far from being my best friend or something and I confess we did not sleep together. Am I still allowed to post on TMC, LOL?

 

[sleepyhead]

Congrats! If I start a short play, I will be prepared to be wrong several times, even all of them, because there is no way to time a bubble burst. But sometimes you just have to play the odds if you aim for outsized gains.

I agree that you can't time a bubble burst and that is why you should not be shorting TSLA on the way up. If you want to short TSLA then wait till it starts going down before shorting it.

If you don't believe me then take a look at Cisco Systems: It's $80 dollar valuation before the tech bubble burst in 2000, required them to grow revenues to $4 trillion within a decade to justify its valuation (we did this exercise in an MBA Investment class). Someone then said that it was an obvious short idea, to which the professor responded:

"It was way overvalued at $40 or even $30, so if you shorted it then you would have been wiped out before being proven correct." It is a bad idea to short these types of stocks. As far as TSLA goes it is not in bubble territory yet.

 

[brianman]

Am I still allowed to post on TMC, LOL?

I don't think that was ever in question. My point is that you've tarnished your own credibility beyond JP discussions based on how you've handled yourself with JP discussions.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

At the time I think you had a few hours to delete or alter comments.

That may have been the reason the story looked a bit bizarre. I had no intention to accuse you of anything, I'm sorry if you perceived my question otherwise.

 

[NigelM]

I know it's Sunday, but don't any of you people have anything better to do today? :wink:

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

I don't think that was ever in question. My point is that you've tarnished your own credibility beyond JP discussions based on how you've handled yourself with JP discussions.

If you say so, be it. I still do not understand your point. Have you missed my comment when I said JP was wrong in that case?

 

[rolosrevenge]

That may have been the reason the story looked a bit bizarre. I had no intention to accuse you of anything, I'm sorry if you perceived my question otherwise.

I didn't think you did. That article was two years ago at least so I doubt he even remembers it.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

I know it's Sunday, but don't any of you people have anything better to do today? :wink:

I do not have my Model S yet

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I didn't think you did. That article was two years ago at least so I doubt he even remembers it.

Thanks for confirming my brain is not in foul state, the last few posts (not yours) were somehow sending me back to high school when we were discussing for hours what friendship, love and justice is ... I started suspecting there is something really wrong and I should put myself in sleep mode.

 

[sleepyhead]

Nicu - Here is a good article for you to read:

Why Tesla Motors Is the Wrong Stock to Short (TSLA)

 

[Dan5]

So far we have experts with advanced degrees who completely disagree with what JP says

Grid dispersion and loading- rolosrevenge
Life cycle assessments- Dan5

We need is a finance person, a person familiar with mining, a person familiar with lithium battery recycling, and a lithium battery manufacturing expert and we have all the bases covered.

Most certainly JP is not a grid expert like rolosrevenge, nor is he a life cycle assessment expert like myself;

Its a matter of who you believe more, a person whose done a PhD in the field OR a person who does not have a PhD and misinterprets the facts.

 

[NigelM]

Maybe it's just me but I'm a little tired of reading posts saying "JP is not all bad"; "Yes, he is"; "No, he's not"; Yes, he is"....

Here's the truth as I see it: JP takes points which might have some marginal validity and builds an overblown negative case that is guaranteed to provoke people who then post comments while he brushes them off. It's his game, that's who he is; whatever his motivations, it ain't gonna change anytime soon. If JP led folks to short the stock, great! Some of us made some nice money betting the other way. I'm cool with that.

Oh, I also believe that Nicu thinks John is a nice guy, he probably is, but we really don't need to convince Nicu that he's pals with Satan do we?

 

[Vexar]

Nicu
The floppy drives failed because the market fell out. Had floppy drives offered 700 mb storage in the same packet, that could be accessed at the same speed as a CD, there would still be a market. Recently i tried to access a 3.5 floppy from years ago, boy was it slow to access a word doc. Had the same info on a USB, plugged in the USB, and read the same file faster.

That's just not fair. I read the article and was annoyed. I don't think Mr. Petersen understood why the 3 1/2 inch micro diskette faded. When they fell the wayside, the replacing technology was not USB memory sticks (for those who might think it was so), it was CD/RW discs, which are, oddly, larger. In the interim were the 3M Zip then Jazz drives, but those were short-lived and brought no end to the micro diskette.

The real end of the micro diskette was the CD/RW discs, for a few reasons: mechanical failures of the diskette drive, data loss in the magnetic medium, and capacity and speed. Once CD/RW discs (even the CD/R) were at about $1.00 a disc, perhaps even more than that, people stopped using micro diskette drives. Oddly, CD/R's and CD/RW's were initially comparatively much more unreliable and people would "burn coasters" very often with media failures. Further, even to this day, the reliability of CD/R's and CD/RW's is still much lower than magnetic media (in general), due to the discs losing lamination at a much faster rate than magnetic media losing a bit polarity. Additionally, repairs in place are much easier in a magnetic medium than a Compact Disc.

So, the question you should be asking yourself is why micro diskettes fell out of vogue. It's not like hard drives died off. Friction and dust were a real problem for the diskette format. If the Zip and Jazz drives actually went anywhere (Jazz could hold 1GB) and had some price benefits, they might have edged out CDs, because they were better at this issue. The invention of the diode laser made CD drives much cheaper. Ask anyone who has owned a classic laserdisc player. That comes to the last point: a medium that works on computers and entertainment systems. Because this CD technology crossed that border, it had significant value to consumers.

Now, having exhaustively dissected the metaphor, let's return to it: the 18650 battery is like a lot more like the compact disc today. The bugs are all worked out of the system, they are cheap, and they are used by multiple industries.

Reflections?

 

[hcsharp]

Maybe it's just me but I'm a little tired of reading posts saying "JP is not all bad"; "Yes, he is"; "No, he's not"; Yes, he is"....

Here's the truth as I see it: JP takes points which might have some marginal validity and builds an overblown negative case that is guaranteed to provoke people who then post comments while he brushes them off. It's his game, that's who he is; whatever his motivations, it ain't gonna change anytime soon. If JP led folks to short the stock, great! Some of us made some nice money betting the other way. I'm cool with that.

Oh, I also believe that Nicu thinks John is a nice guy, he probably is, but we really don't need to convince Nicu that he's pals with Satan do we?

I remember starting on a large project once that went a considerable distance into uncharted territory. There were lots of discussions with experienced engineers; some doubted its feasibility. There was one guy in particular who I initially hated because he was quite negative on the whole thing. Eventually he became my most valuable resource even though he doubted almost all of my solutions would work. He forced me to defend my ideas. That process helped me gain more confidence to move forward at critical junctions, despite his objections. Sometimes I wonder if I would have given up without his criticism. He also prevented some serious problems that nobody else would have seen.

JP would be useful that way except that he's so hopelessly biased that you can't separate the useful information from the useless. Nicu, OTOH, I find quite useful. Many of you have lumped him in the same pot as JP just because he defends him and he's shorting TSLA, but I think you have misinterpreted him. He is a strong supporter of Tesla. Best of all, he's not rude. Nicu also directly challenged JP on TSLA. I'm surprised to see so many negative reactions to Nicu's posts. Look at the value his perspective has brought to this thread. If nothing else, you can have more confidence in your positions after being forced to defend them. And maybe he'll help you see your own bias if you're lucky.

 

[JRP3]

JRP3, this is a rant, not a serious study. No wonder the only other commenter is Julian Cox. I am no expert in this so I tend to trust studies like this by teams of experts who take a large range of aspects into consideration
http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/B/644.PDF

How is that a rant? I simply pointed out that the study Petersen based his entire premise on uses a battery energy density which is at least half of what Tesla uses, I clearly explained how I got to my numbers, and I linked to other sources that came up with almost the exact same numbers as I did. You do realize the study did not model the Tesla Model S pack?

Regarding Petersen censoring people on SA, it's clear that he has a strong influence with the SA editors, and he did successfully get me banned from commenting on his articles, even though the SA editors admitted to me that they did not find anything objectionable with the contents of my posts. At least they didn't cave into him completely and ban me from the entire site, which is what Petersen wanted. I have over 4000 posts on SA and gone at it with a number of other authors, yet only Petersen went overboard with personal attacks and a campaign to have me banned. He's done the same with many others.

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JP would be useful that way except that he's so hopelessly biased that you can't separate the useful information from the useless. Nicu, OTOH, I find quite useful. Many of you have lumped him in the same pot as JP just because he defends him and he's shorting TSLA, but I think you have misinterpreted him. He is a strong supporter of Tesla. Best of all, he's not rude. Nicu also directly challenged JP on TSLA. I'm surprised to see so many negative reactions to Nicu's posts. Look at the value his perspective has brought to this thread. If nothing else, you can have more confidence in your positions after being forced to defend them. And maybe he'll help you see your own bias if you're lucky.

I actually saw Petersen in the same light, initially. Pointing out his errors and being forced to defend my positions, and occasionally finding out I was mistaken, strengthened my conviction and increased my knowledge. What's shocking about Nicu is his complete turnaround from seeing through Petersen's misinformation campaign to now giving him far too much credibility.