Friend(s) of JP - Conversations with Nicu

[Nicu.Mihalache]

neoden, have you checked the link I provided wrt valuation? even at 200k / y Model S + Model X, today's valuation is very rich. But it is here today, and 200k luxury cars per year is just one of many possible futures. Have you asked yourself at what price would TSLA be overvalued in 2013? What would have the answer been before the end of March?

What I am trying to communicate here is about anchoring, we all fall pray to it, sometimes even if we are highly trained experts in the matter
Anchoring - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Dan5]

Nicu

What you also have to consider is that JP tends to cherry pick data that suits his needs and his assumptions . Same reason why republicans watch Fox news. His track record in terms of picking fair and balanced papers does not bode well.

As an example, he chose the notorious "Norwegian" LCA and then chose to write detailed paper criticizing Teslas batteries, instead of using the 95% of the papers that contradict the paper.

Its much better to look at the materials and take apart a battery than basing off a report.

Then take a look at the LUX paper he cited for microhybrids. Bottom line is theory and papers are all well and good, BUT nothing beats feet on the ground and experimental data.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Dan5, everybody cherry picks data. Most our decisions are made subconsciously and the rational part of the brain is working just to rationalize those choices (psychological experiments of simple choices like right / left show that the decision is taken about 7 seconds before we even know we have decided - of course, this does not apply to real-time reactions to the exterior world, our automatisms are much faster in this case, about a quarter of a second from the stimuli to the physical reaction). Very few decisions, and usually not the best of them, are rational as opposed to intuitive (lots of experience built into intuition).

That said, you were interested to find out the answer of a specific question. Even if JP's answer in not complete or wrong, it may give you some starting point or some important detail. If you are afraid of some public attack from him (you should not be if you are polite), you could simply send him a private message on SA. You have a very good chance to get some valuable answer (in the worst case you just delete the account and forget about it). If your sentiments prevent you from dropping a short question for a chance to get your answer, then either this answer is not so valuable to you or ... Houston, we have a problem!

 

[Krugerrand]

Those comments are pure red-neck testosterone induced unjustified attacks and they were not provoked in any way. In his place I would simply report that to SA and keep my comments stream clean.

I've explained to you why he gets those comments, but you seem to be having a hard time understanding or you don't care to hear it or understand it. People don't say those kinds of things unprovoked (unless impaired by mental illness or chemicals).

Coincidentally I have seen a documentary yesterday which discussed the mechanisms put in place by the brain when we fall in love so that we do not see the shortcomings of the partner.

And you were able to apply what you learned in that documentary to your own loving view of J.P.?

I just hope that TSLA will stay around $150 or higher for at least 3-6 months so that some of those who are today blind to risks will realize profits and reevaluate the situation with a clear head.

That's exactly something J.P. would say. That can't be taken as a sincere concern for others because of the back-handed slap of assumed state of people you made. Let me rephrase it for you so that it's non-offensive to all: I hope everyone is successful with their TSLA investments.

 

[Zzzz...]

Probably some non-nonsense came out from JP, QUOTE:"Tesla is currently paying something on the order of $200 to $250 per kWh at the cell". Which is close to mine guess on the matter.

But one thing he gets terribly wrong - Panasonic already build factory pretty much anticipating Model S demand. And that demand was at very high risk of not happening. Now that Tesla is already accomplished Model S large scale production and soon introduce Model X, battery manufacturers would be in much better position to invest seeing 35k units production rate to anticipate 150k future needs (initial target for Gen3).

Besides, when JP talks about 75% cost of li-ion cells coming from "raw material", he doesn't really mean true raw material costs, but cathode material. And cathode material do have a huge potential to price drop as volume grows and production tech improving.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

I've explained to you why he gets those comments, but you seem to be having a hard time understanding or you don't care to hear it or understand it. People don't say those kinds of things unprovoked (unless impaired by mental illness or chemicals).

that's why I stressed those were the first comments on the article; whatever occurred elsewhere between them, should stay there; that's exactly one of my arguments, they are chemically impaired, but the chemicals' source is in their own brain

And you were able to apply what you learned in that documentary to your own loving view of J.P.?

JP is my friend (not my lover LOL), but I try to keep that separated from my opinions; if you go several comments higher, you will observe that I do not hesitate to clearly and loudly criticize some of his opinions that do not correspond to my position

That's exactly something J.P. would say. That can't be taken as a sincere concern for others because of the back-handed slap of assumed state of people you made. Let me rephrase it for you so that it's non-offensive to all: I hope everyone is successful with their TSLA investments.

incidentally, "I hope everyone is successful with their TSLA investments" is an almost exact phrase John uses, but which seems very offensive to some

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Probably some non-nonsense came out from JP, QUOTE:"Tesla is currently paying something on the order of $200 to $250 per kWh at the cell". Which is close to mine guess on the matter.

In my first SA article about Tesla, I said "From the DOE document we get a price of $200-$250 / kWh of 18650 cells." - boy, how much ridicule, fairy dust and hopium pipes I got from those Axionistas (no joke this time !)

But one thing he gets terribly wrong - Panasonic already build factory pretty much anticipating Model S demand. And that demand was at very high risk of not happening. Now that Tesla is already accomplished Model S large scale production and soon introduce Model X, battery manufacturers would be in much better position to invest seeing 35k units production rate to anticipate 150k future needs (initial target for Gen3).

One should check, but JP affirms Panasonic bought their 18650 production capacity in 2010 from Sanyo, so they have not built much. Moreover, they took $6B of losses from this acquisition since then. Those are historical facts that are for sure reported to the SEC. If anyone has the energy to debunk that, good luck. But before that, I think we should not invent other variants of history.

Besides, when JP talks about 75% cost of li-ion cells coming from "raw material", he doesn't really mean true raw material costs, but cathode material. And cathode material do have a huge potential to price drop as volume grows and production tech improving.

Just by chance, a very fresh comment he made explains why those materials are so expensive and provides a link to serious analysis of related historical facts
Link to Comment

It the main cost in these materials are the ore and the energy it takes to obtain the desired purity, I do not see how they can get much cheaper.

 

[Zzzz...]

One should check, but JP affirms Panasonic bought their 18650 production capacity in 2010 from Sanyo, so they have not built much. Moreover, they took $6B of losses from this acquisition since then. Those are historical facts that are for sure reported to the SEC. If anyone has the energy to debunk that, good luck. But before that, I think we should not invent other variants of history.

The factory producing NCA cells came online shortly before Tesla started to produce Model S. Who decided to invest in additional capacities actually irrelevant. But decision to invest was to a degree based on anticipated demand and the signed contract that secured Tesla's right to purchase battery packs for up to 80 000 units.

Just by chance, a very fresh comment he made explains why those materials are so expensive and provides a link to serious analysis of related historical facts
Link to Comment

It the main cost in these materials are the ore and the energy it takes to obtain the desired purity, I do not see how they can get much cheaper.

What JP is claiming is that there is almost no room for li-ion price drop due to 75% of battery costs are the costs of raw material. It is a lie. Plain and simple - an intentional misleading of the readers due to JP agenda. The "raw material" he referring to is a high tech products of very complex and sophisticated processes. There are lots of room for technology improvements and price decreases due economy of scale/competition. Basically when JP talking about "raw material" an uneducated reader would imagine something that could not be made cheaper that what the price is now. But in reality li-ion cells have a potential to cost several times cheaper then they cost now.

Ore and energy represent single digit percentage of cost of the cell. Even lithium itself contribute on the order of 2%-3% of cell cost(with all ore and energy needed for lithium production already included). Cobalt is expansive, but there are magnesium based chemistries. Companies like Envia Systems are trying to lower cost of kWh by removing cobalt from equation. Most costs are coming from purification processes, particle creation and structuring chemicals and their composition.

Overall JP claim that li-ion cells could not be made much cheaper then today is a bull****.

 

[JRP3]

In my first SA article about Tesla, I said "From the DOE document we get a price of $200-$250 / kWh of 18650 cells." - boy, how much ridicule, fairy dust and hopium pipes I got from those Axionistas (no joke this time !)

Exactly, you've been on the other end of the abuse from Petersen and his crew, so it should not surprise you that he gets it back in turn.

One should check, but JP affirms Panasonic bought their 18650 production capacity in 2010 from Sanyo, so they have not built much. Moreover, they took $6B of losses from this acquisition since then. Those are historical facts that are for sure reported to the SEC. If anyone has the energy to debunk that, good luck. But before that, I think we should not invent other variants of history.

Indeed, one should check. Panasonic built a new plant in China and upgraded an existing one, in 2011-2012:
http://www.zemotoring.com/news/2011/04/panasonic-to-build-new-366-million-lithium-ion-plant-in-china
http://panasonic.co.jp/corp/news/official.data/data.dir/2012/07/en120717-2/en120717-2.html
Panasonic also recently claimed profits from their small format cell production, don't have the link handy.

It the main cost in these materials are the ore and the energy it takes to obtain the desired purity, I do not see how they can get much cheaper.

Here is how, they get cheaper per kWh by storing more energy in the same amount of material, that's the whole point of energy density progression. Plus newer chemistry using less expensive materials such as LiS and LiSi.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Ore and energy represent single digit percentage of cost of the cell.

Well, let's attempt a simple computation. One 3.4Ah 3.6V means 12.24 Wh, even if not all that energy is squeezable from the cell. Use the 455 multiplier you find in the linked study, that means about 5.57 kWh used to make that cell, including materials. What is the price of electricity during peak hours when plants refine metals? 10c / kWh more or less. That means 56c or 37.3% of the claimed $1.5 per cell (much, much more if you think that price is way below $1). It doesn't look like single digits to me. Of course, one can argue about the voltage of the cell, the price of electricity etc. but I think you would have a hard time erasing an order of magnitude from that.

Cobalt is expansive, but there are magnesium based chemistries.

This is speculation about future stuff. You do not know how this could be enabled in the 18650 format or if it caters to Tesla's specifications. If it's so easy, why hasn't Tesla with all those experts and geniuses there haven't thought of that before? Maybe because things are harder than they seem from outside?

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Exactly, you've been on the other end of the abuse from Petersen and his crew, so it should not surprise you that he gets it back in turn.

Well, I've survived and learned quite a bit since then.

Indeed, one should check. Panasonic built a new plant in China and upgraded an existing one, in 2011-2012:
http://www.zemotoring.com/news/2011/04/panasonic-to-build-new-366-million-lithium-ion-plant-in-china
http://panasonic.co.jp/corp/news/official.data/data.dir/2012/07/en120717-2/en120717-2.html
Panasonic also recently claimed profits from their small format cell production, don't have the link handy.

We know that a lot of Li-ion capacity has been built recently, but we do not know if much of it is for 18650 (that was the whole argument around the floppy disk). I am not saying it is not, just that it is not clear from the link.

Here is how, they get cheaper per kWh by storing more energy in the same amount of material, that's the whole point of energy density progression. Plus newer chemistry using less expensive materials such as LiS and LiSi.

That is the slow and hard way. Those Si 4Ah cells were promised by Panasonic 4 years ago and they are still MIA. If you get a step up change in price from new factories (that have to be amortized) after Tesla absorbs the unused capacity, it will erase many years of slow and painful gains.

 

[dsm363]

Well, let's attempt a simple computation. One 3.4Ah 3.6V means 12.24 Wh, even if not all that energy is squeezable from the cell. Use the 455 multiplier you find in the linked study, that means about 5.57 kWh used to make that cell, including materials. What is the price of electricity during peak hours when plants refine metals? 10c / kWh more or less. That means 56c or 37.3% of the claimed $1.5 per cell (much, much more if you think that price is way below $1). It doesn't look like single digits to me. Of course, one can argue about the voltage of the cell, the price of electricity etc. but I think you would have a hard time erasing an order of magnitude from that.


This is speculation about future stuff. You do not know how this could be enabled in the 18650 format or if it caters to Tesla's specifications. If it's so easy, why hasn't Tesla with all those experts and geniuses there haven't thought of that before? Maybe because things are harder than they seem from outside?

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Well, I've survived and learned quite a bit since then.



We know that a lot of Li-ion capacity has been built recently, but we do not know if much of it is for 18650 (that was the whole argument around the floppy disk). I am not saying it is not, just that it is not clear from the link.


That is the slow and hard way. Those Si 4Ah cells were promised by Panasonic 4 years ago and they are still MIA. If you get a step up change in price from new factories (that have to be amortized) after Tesla absorbs the unused capacity, it will erase many years of slow and painful gains.

Maybe you should set up your own thread. This really isn't about JP anymore.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Maybe you should set up your own thread. This really isn't about JP anymore.

I did not plan to get so involved into this discussion, and while I still feel a bit of uneasy opposition, it is much better than my previous experience here and I had some fun exchanging with you guys. I am not sure my input is wanted so I may just wait and see.

As for the topic, it is about the $1.5 / cell and 18650 capacity "nonsense" from JP. Maybe if they become legitimate subjects, even if originated by JP, they do not belong to this thread? That would really be welcome change

 

[JRP3]

Well, let's attempt a simple computation. One 3.4Ah 3.6V means 12.24 Wh, even if not all that energy is squeezable from the cell. Use the 455 multiplier you find in the linked study, that means about 5.57 kWh used to make that cell, including materials.

Except that I've previously pointed out how wrong that figures is: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/7...-to-wrong-conclusion-about-tesla-battery-pack

 

[Norbert]

That is the slow and hard way. Those Si 4Ah cells were promised by Panasonic 4 years ago and they are still MIA. If you get a step up change in price from new factories (that have to be amortized) after Tesla absorbs the unused capacity, it will erase many years of slow and painful gains.

It seems to me you are just describing the general kind of difficulties any technical progress has. JP, and now you, are making it sound as if that means Tesla will get stuck in delays and batteries will never get cheaper. However technical progress will keep taking place, as it has for hundreds of years. It's just business as usual.

 

[JRP3]

Most people here and those attacking JP are in love with Tesla or TSLA. Coincidentally I have seen a documentary yesterday which discussed the mechanisms put in place by the brain when we fall in love so that we do not see the shortcomings of the partner. Not only increased levels of stress, but also more dopamine and serotonin. They said it generally lasts 3-6 months, time by which normally offspring is guaranteed (an evolutionist argument, of course).

I must point out that this is a typical Petersen tactic, try and discredit the people by using irrelevant distraction and avoid the actual issues being discussed. Fact is you have no idea what feelings people may or may not have about Tesla or TSLA unless they specifically express them to you.

 

[brianman]

Dan5, everybody cherry picks data.

No.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

It seems to me you are just describing the general kind of difficulties any technical progress has. JP, and now you, are making it sound as if that means Tesla will get stuck in delays and batteries will never get cheaper. However technical progress will keep taking place, as it has for hundreds of years. It's just business as usual.

What JP argued in his last article is that some tech is in its twilight (not all batteries, of course, just this format 18650). He may be wrong, but most data we have suggest not. Tesla will find itself at a crossroad and the choices do not look rosy in the mid-term. Long-term, most problems can be solved but today it is too hard to see exactly how and which companies will benefit.

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I must point out that this is a typical Petersen tactic, try and discredit the people by using irrelevant distraction and avoid the actual issues being discussed. Fact is you have no idea what feelings people may or may not have about Tesla or TSLA unless they specifically express them to you.

Well, in order to explain or justify such actions, Krugerrand suggested above that it is because they are impaired by mental illness or chemicals. I hesitated in between blind fate and love, and I have chosen the latter because it is more polite. Do you have any other suggestions for likely causes?

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No.

This is of course not insinuating that this is a conscious process with the scope of twisting the truth (so maybe I should have replaced the fruit in that phrase). But in practice, the amount of data and opinions is so large, that one has to make choices. Most of the time, we do not make painful choices and seek information that contradicts our sensibilities. Kudos to those who regularly do, but even them cannot take into account all data.

 

[dsm363]

Invite JP to join the discussion here. Since he can't get dissenting views banned though I doubt he'd be willing to discuss things here.

 

[brianman]

Invite JP to join the discussion here. Since he can't get dissenting views banned though I doubt he'd be willing to discuss things here.

Ouch. There-in lies the crux of the matter.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Except that I've previously pointed out how wrong that figures is: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/7...-to-wrong-conclusion-about-tesla-battery-pack

JRP3, this is a rant, not a serious study. No wonder the only other commenter is Julian Cox. I am no expert in this so I tend to trust studies like this by teams of experts who take a large range of aspects into consideration
http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/B/644.PDF

If you want a competent opinion on your instablog, you should probably ask MRTTF on SA, he is a PhD chemist working in the Li-ion industry. The only thing that crosses my mind is that higher capacity batteries need higher purity components which in turn need more energy to be made. I may be wrong, it is just a suggestion why that could be.

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Invite JP to join the discussion here. Since he can't get dissenting views banned though I doubt he'd be willing to discuss things here.

I think SA has a public policy for deleting comments or banning people / accounts. I have just checked, I cannot delete a comment on my articles. As far as I know, TMC is private property where we only have privileges but no rights.

Of course you do not believe what you say (given even the title of this thread). But as far as I know, when JP is under contract, he charges in a day what I make in about 6 weeks (sometimes I wonder why I did a PhD). That thing with the monetary value from one article on SA being the equivalent of a short phone call with a client is no metaphor. I am amazed by the energy he spends not only collecting data and trying to share it in his articles, but also answering to so many comments. It is in that sense that I said he is a valuable resource once one can stay polite (he will not attempt to put you down for ignorance, only for aggressive ignorance).

 

[sleepyhead]

I don't know anything about the battery industry, but I think that I will trust Elon when it comes to batteries.

You guys are wasting your time debating the battery issue. If Elon says it can be done, then it will be done. You can spend 20 hours a day researching battery issues and you will come up with a conclusion that is most likely going to be completely wrong.

In Elon we trust!

I would rather blindly trust Elon's word than anybody's "well thought out" research on this subject.

There is no battery issue. Tesla will get it done.