Friend(s) of JP - Conversations with Nicu

[Nicu.Mihalache]

$2 per wh seems very high. There was something on green car reports for NCA which puts the assembled price at around $400 assembled with the circuit boards included.

Did you consider common form factor batteries?

I was looking for retail high discharge (>= 25C) batteries. Any link or advice (not an engineer here, I will try to ask some friends to help with the tough technical part) is appreciated - here is what I found
Green Series Life 10,000 6-cell 19.8v Battery Pack, GS LiFe 10000mah Packs, Life-10000-198-Pack
and for the motor
Electric Motorsport EV Parts

There were LiPo up to 120C continuous but much more fragile (charging) and much shorter life (and a bit more expensive). I expect the price to come down somewhat by the time I offer myself this treat (1-2 years) of trying to build a small EV than can do 0-60 mph in less than 3s and then wear out uncountable sets of tires - heck, by that time Model S AWD Sport may be available so I will have a real monster and small devil to play with.

PS: I feel we are getting OT here ...

 

[JRP3]

I know, I have even looked at some 40C discharge / 12C charge LFP recently as I plan to build an electric go kart at some point in the future. But it costs $2 / Wh (retail) and its cycle life is about 1000. Compare that to $0.5 / Wh or so and more than 2500 cycle life for PbC. There may also be other differences in robustness, but I do not know specific details.

Do we even have a solid number for the real costs of the PbC? And I don't mean what they might cost in the future, someday, maybe.
Cycle life for most LiFePO4 is greater than 2000 cycles, depending on how they are used it can be 3000+. CALB CA series cells can do 10C for short bursts, which means a 40ah cell can put out 400 amps, 60ah cell 600 amps, etc. I'd say the 40ah cell would be more than enough for a go kart.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Do we even have a solid number for the real costs of the PbC? And I don't mean what they might cost in the future, someday, maybe.
Cycle life for most LiFePO4 is greater than 2000 cycles, depending on how they are used it can be 3000+. CALB CA series cells can do 10C for short bursts, which means a 40ah cell can put out 400 amps, 60ah cell 600 amps, etc. I'd say the 40ah cell would be more than enough for a go kart.

No, we do not have the real cost for PbC. Only that 56 batteries + electronics were sold in 10 packages to ePower for $20k each. Depending on your assumptions on the price of control electronics, this works to $250 - $325 apiece. On top of that, we do not have the size / capacity for those batteries. Btw, ePower tried PbC in 2010 or so and decided it is too expensive for their plans. They tried several other battery types (Li-Ion included, I think) and came back to Axion hat in hand, ready to pay the right price. PbC will have a very hard time to change people's minds. Axion is working on that for several years already. But once it starts, it can snowball in a tsunami of growth. Just think where a $17M company could go if at least one or two of their $1B+ / year revenue niche markets pans out.

For the go kart, I was searching for the lightest batteries that will do the work and which have reasonable cycle life. Ideally, 50kW pulse should be available at least for 5-10 seconds if you want to smoke those tires (there is some 15% loss in that control electronics DC to AC, and the motor is 56 hp rated).

 

[JRP3]

If you're serious about the kart you should join DIY Electric Car Forums Site Home and post your plans there to get some good feedback. I think 22 of the CALB 40's would be more than enough, remember tire shredding means torque, and 400 amps in a kart should be more than enough to do the job. That should be around a 60-70lb pack, or go with the 60ah cells for 600 amps. The other way to go is with 90C lipoly cells, but be prepared for some fireworks if things go wrong :scared:

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

If you're serious about the kart you should join DIY Electric Car Forums Site Home and post your plans there to get some good feedback. I think 22 of the CALB 40's would be more than enough, remember tire shredding means torque, and 400 amps in a kart should be more than enough to do the job. That should be around a 60-70lb pack, or go with the 60ah cells for 600 amps. The other way to go is with 90C lipoly cells, but be prepared for some fireworks if things go wrong :scared:

Thanks for the link. When the time comes, I'll do that

As for the batteries, LiPo was the first thought, but they come with too many problems. Those LFP that I found (see link above) seem already good enough with continuous 40C, I think they won't mind 50-60C for 10s.

 

[Causalien]

When Nicu starts saying good things about AXPW, I listen. But why is AXPW even a possibility for future applications? I seems like Lithium battery has enough power density. Do we need PbC's power density? Or do we need PbC's cost efficiency?

 

[smorgasbord]

Just think where a $17M company could go if at least one or two of their $1B+ / year revenue niche markets pans out.

I keep thinking where that company will go when none of their niche markets pan out. In a few months, JP's gone from touting BMW as the savior to Axion's CEO admitting that BMW's not in the foreseeable future.

Back to JP's nonsense, I consider anyone who own's AXPW stock to be boosting JP's net worth, and so I won't do it even if I did believe in the company, which I don't. I know some here won't click on his SA articles since they don't want to give someone else's penny to JP - I suggest selling/avoiding the stock so he doesn't get your money boosting his stock position.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Back to JP's nonsense, I consider anyone who own's AXPW stock to be boosting JP's net worth, and so I won't do it even if I did believe in the company, which I don't. I know some here won't click on his SA articles since they don't want to give someone else's penny to JP - I suggest selling/avoiding the stock so he doesn't get your money boosting his stock position.

This is the perfect example of mixing emotions with investing logic. Something every investor should avoid.

As for Axion, it is far from a sure bet. But the first 10x will be on the the first real contract signed. Next multiples will need more work, revenue and profits. But I would not exclude a 50x to 100x in 3 to 5 years (if it doesn't go belly up). While he was over-promising before, the CEO said there will be significant revenue this quarter which ends in three weeks. Usually this is accompanied by a press release. So in any case, we are in for some fireworks by the end of the month, I just don't know the color: red or green?

EDIT: just for the record and proper disclosure, I now own 600k AXPW and I may go to 1M if it drops to 10c (and AAPL does not tank in the meantime).

 

[Zythryn]

This is the perfect example of mixing emotions with investing logic. Something every investor should avoid...

Possibly,although it could also be a case of not wanting to invest in a company when their mouthpiece (J.P.) is so very misleading, dishonest, or at the very least wrong.

I will admit, some of my investment rules could be called emotional.
I refuse to invest money in companies such as Exxon, or Altria that make money selling/dealing cigarettes or oil.
Yes, I could make more money by doing so, but I stand by what I feel is right and important.

 

[Dan5]

Nicu,
Also consider there is another company called firefly energy that is also making lead carbon batteries.

Also remember Axion entered PIPE financing- very destructive to existing shareholders.

When i hear pipe, its time to divest

 

[Blsteen]

I can't believe he printed that.
I browse JP's articles lightly, then fully enjoy seeing how hard he gets ripped by Commenters.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Nicu,
Also consider there is another company called firefly energy that is also making lead carbon batteries.

Also remember Axion entered PIPE financing- very destructive to existing shareholders.

When i hear pipe, its time to divest

Yep, that's why the price more or less halved this summer so I could get so many cheap shares (it seems the "strategic partner" wanted to "help" them in exchange of 60% of the company or so, therefore plan B). There is a Chinese proverb that in every crisis there is opportunity.

The distinction here from classic PIPE disasters is that Axion has no debt. And if the price goes below 10c, the dilution does not continue with the PIPEers, they receive back cash with 25% penalty, I think. That is independent for each $500k slice that they are supposed to reimburse in stock each month starting September.

 

[qwk]

Possibly,although it could also be a case of not wanting to invest in a company when their mouthpiece (J.P.) is so very misleading, dishonest, or at the very least wrong.

I will admit, some of my investment rules could be called emotional.
I refuse to invest money in companies such as Exxon, or Altria that make money selling/dealing cigarettes or oil.
Yes, I could make more money by doing so, but I stand by what I feel is right and important.

Yes, this is called voting with your wallet. Most here did so by purchasing the Model S.

As far as AXPW is concerned, that company is toast. Only a miracle would save it now.

 

[smorgasbord]

This is the perfect example of mixing emotions with investing logic.

I disagree. Just as people here might invest in Solar City because of Musk, I'll avoid AXPW because of JP

This stock would have been toast long ago if not for Petersen's unethical pumping of the company and its stock. Face it, everyone reading this thread who has bought AXPW did so after being introduced to the company via Petersen or commentary on his articles. Some smart college student should write a thesis on how a blogger who has a way with words can boost a micro-cap stock and keep it afloat for so long - even when he has been consistently wrong on so many issues.

The truth is that this company would not have survived without its vocal huckster and that makes it a bad company to invest it. Nothing emotional about it.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is the perfect example of mixing emotions with investing logic. Something every investor should avoid.

Money is emotional for most of the population because of its importance putting a roof over people's heads and food on their table so that they might live with a certain level of comfort and security. For some money goes beyond the basics and is a source of ego, power and worth...that'd also be emotion.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

smorgasbord, when you say you would not invest even if you knew it is a good bet, this is emotion; I can understand emotions like avoiding oil, guns or tobacco companies (I do too), but they are emotions nonetheless; other type of emotion I see around here, this time a very dangerous one, is to say that "I believe in Tesla's goals and future, so even if the stock tanks, I know I helped the right cause" - no, if you lose, you just transferred your hard earned cash to some other guy or machine out there, Tesla did not profit much, except when they raise cash

as for JP, he has introduced Axion to a large audience and some have decided to buy; you think he is lying, I think he does not - I actually think he does a service to both the company (and therefore himself) and investors who otherwise would not know about Axion; I think he does not get all aspects of Tesla right, but some points he raises are real (I do not want to develop that, everyone should decide for himself); in any case, Axion is not for the faint of heart, but when you can pay $1 to flip a coin and gain $10 if you are right, I take the deal any time of the day or night

 

[2Pearls]

smorgasbord, when you say you would not invest even if you knew it is a good bet, this is emotion; I can understand emotions like avoiding oil, guns or tobacco companies (I do too), but they are emotions nonetheless; other type of emotion I see around here, this time a very dangerous one, is to say that "I believe in Tesla's goals and future, so even if the stock tanks, I know I helped the right cause" - no, if you lose, you just transferred your hard earned cash to some other guy or machine out there, Tesla did not profit much, except when they raise cash

as for JP, he has introduced Axion to a large audience and some have decided to buy; you think he is lying, I think he does not - I actually think he does a service to both the company (and therefore himself) and investors who otherwise would not know about Axion; I think he does not get all aspects of Tesla right, but some points he raises are real (I do not want to develop that, everyone should decide for himself); in any case, Axion is not for the faint of heart, but when you can pay $1 to flip a coin and gain $10 if you are right, I take the deal any time of the day or night

Nicu, i have been reading these posts and I tend to agree, although there are certainly many stocks like this where there is the "opportunity" to make a lot of money...some of these have better odds than others...heck, there are tons of biotech stocks that are on the cusp of getting approvals from FDA, but, they are very long shots. With Axion, I think that this could be one. The question becomes if you are an investor or speculator?

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Nicu, i have been reading these posts and I tend to agree, although there are certainly many stocks like this where there is the "opportunity" to make a lot of money...some of these have better odds than others...heck, there are tons of biotech stocks that are on the cusp of getting approvals from FDA, but, they are very long shots. With Axion, I think that this could be one. The question becomes if you are an investor or speculator?

With Axion, you can call me investor. I may sell after the first 10x or so some shares to cover initial investment and tax, but the bigger part of my investment will not be unloaded below $10 - that will be several years from now and I started accumulating 25 months ago. With Tesla and Apple, I am surely a speculator, because my main focus is on options (I also have some shares in AAPL and at the moment no position at all in TSLA).

The thing with Axion as a good bet, I think there are several things to justify it. They already have the technology and production lines, it's not like there is a chance they succeed (compare that to biotech, of which I know nothing btw). Then, their tech is not "cool", which means the stock is not overvalued, on the contrary. Moreover, we have as close to inside information as possible while still being legal, a guy who knows the company and large chunks of the industry inside out, follows recent developments (from outside), explains them for free and can even answer your questions if you ask politely. Many have chosen to demonize him (see the title of this thread), but I have found value. As always, you have to use your own filter for what he thinks, he is just one guy with his biases and nobody can reliably predict stock prices.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Axion is not for the faint of heart, but when you can pay $1 to flip a coin and gain $10 if you are right, I take the deal any time of the day or night

An interesting coincidence - I made my initial investment in TSLA in December of last year, started trading in March. As of now I increased my initial investment 10x without putting any additional money in. It seems to match your criteria, except that with TSLA I always thought that my chances were somewhat higher than with flipping a coin. My friendly advice is to get back into TSLA.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

An interesting coincidence - I made my initial investment in TSLA in December of last year, started trading in March. As of now I increased my initial investment 10x without putting any additional money in. It seems to match your criteria, except that with TSLA I always thought that my chances were somewhat higher than with flipping a coin. My friendly advice is to get back into TSLA.

Thanks for the advice, but I've got my sweet profits from TSLA at the best possible time (being crushed by AAPL). If it goes above $180 in the short term, I will get back in, but this time with puts - I still admire the company, execution, want to buy the car - have seen my configuration in "person" in Munich last month - etc. etc. but I make a conscious effort to separate emotions from trading decisions (as I do with Axion, I try to isolate it from the fact that JP is my personal friend).

If you are curious, I have predicted a 10x in TSLA and separately the short squeeze about two years ago (but unfortunately for the short squeeze, being right too early it's not (much) better than being wrong - instead of $200k I could have made about $1M if it started 1st March instead of 1st April and more than $4M if it started 1st January)
Potential 10x Stock Idea: Why I Believe Tesla Is the Next Apple
Tesla: The Looming Short Squeeze