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FSD Price increase in UK

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On a long enough timeline I think we will get to a point where cars communicate their positions, velocity and even intentions to other vehicles within a certain radius, making the need for cameras to identify them as vehicles somewhat moot.

I read a paper on this somewhere where standardised car to car communication protocols are being considered right now and will have huge additional benefits.

One of the biggest issues for FSD is arguably human behaviour and dealing with those unpredictable issues... when FSD reaches the required standard and becomes more ubiquitous those issues will subside as there are fewer and fewer human drivers.

At some point soon, road design will also be amended and adapted to consider needs of FSD systems rather than just humans, making it easier for FSD systems and reducing those "edge" cases where they may have difficulty.
 
If anyone in the UK buys this you are a fool. It really is the Emperor's New Clothes.

Though I agree Elon is one of the best (if not the best) con man on the planet, his ability to deliver on things everyone else says is impossible is nevertheless astounding. If I hadn't watched this Space X event live it might as well have been an episode of Thunderbirds.

spacexrocketreturn.jpg


FSD is a long long away, but the software code of AP now versus 2016 when it first launched is very impressive.

No one outside Tesla has any idea what the AP3 hardware can do, the current code is written all for AP2/2.5.

If Telsa have no progress with FSD by next year this I would say you are 100% right, but I reserve full judgement till we see the potential of AP3 CPU.
 
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I read a paper on this somewhere where standardised car to car communication protocols are being considered right now and will have huge additional benefits.

They have been being considered for a very long time and even implemented. Someone I use to sit opposite was on the standards committee (?) and that was quite a while ago. He was quite secretive about it but occasionally you would overhear something or get to see a presentation on it. Also some of our software was ready to go with its part of the jigsaw several years ago, but it wasn't up to us to package it and roll it out. Its been a while since I touched base with it, but I think there have been some early, potentially premature (using different comms protocols), low key solutions that have now been demonstrated too. But I've never seen/heard Tesla's name associated with (same is true with some other manufacturers but not any in Tesla's position) it which will be a massive oversight on their part if that remains the case.
 
Other cars telling your car wirelessly what they going to do next? Nice idea. Requires compatible software/protocol true, all cars to do it? and be functional (not broken)?

Looks like Tesla think it’s a ‘nice to have‘. It would be good reassurance but it’s probably 10 years away from being a realistic scenario. Are the legislators thinking about mandating it on all new cars?

Afterall, we humans anticipate behaviour without a wireless signal. How often do people indicate and then actually do what the indicators say?
 
Though I agree Elon is one of the best (if not the best) con man on the planet, his ability to deliver on things everyone else says is impossible is nevertheless astounding. If I hadn't watched this Space X event live it might as well have been an episode of Thunderbirds.

spacexrocketreturn.jpg


FSD is a long long away, but the software code of AP now versus 2016 when it first launched is very impressive.

No one outside Tesla has any idea what the AP3 hardware can do, the current code is written all for AP2/2.5.

If Telsa have no progress with FSD by next year this I would say you are 100% right, but I reserve full judgement till we see the potential of AP3 CPU.


The new "software stack" utilising the new patents is due in the next 2-4 months - that's when we should start seeing HW3 start robe exploited and 2.x move out of beta
 
I say it all the time; we'll need infrastructure changes. There's just too many variables here that just don't exist in the US, plus the additional regulations that will block any meaningful progress filtering it's way down to us for quite some time.

That includes vehicle-to-vehicle, but also road-to-vehicle and general infrastructure to vehicle. Why on earth would I rely on a set of cameras (easily obscured) to work out an insanely complex set of lights at a junction, when the highways agency could just install a sensor that says "stop" or "go", and it'd be guaranteed to work every time?

The current image-recognition approach is such an arse-about-face way of solving the problem. It's very Silicon Valley

I've said it before, but if the car companies and governments collaborated in a meaningful way, we'd probably already be a long way towards a viable AV future right now.

At least, for us in the UK, the fact that you can buy something from Tesla called "Full Self Driving" (heh) for £8000 (a lot more than a couple of days ago, when it did the exact same thing -- which is... not drive itself) is... bizarre, to say the least.
 
There's just too many variables here that just don't exist in the US

I'm interested to know what these are?

Why on earth would I rely on a set of cameras (easily obscured) to work out an insanely complex set of lights at a junction

It seems to be coping really well and learning quickly in the USA already, I don't think this will be a problem at all.

the highways agency could just install a sensor that says "stop" or "go", and it'd be guaranteed to work every time?
This would take a long time for every single traffic light to be updated (including all temporary lights), and it would need to be every light in every territory where tesla FSD is active, otherwise visual recognition is required for redundancy anyway so needs to be part of the solution

the current image-recognition approach is such an arse-about-face way of solving the problem. It's very Silicon Valley

As discussed above, visual approach has been the successful approach since the invention of the motor car! :)
 
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As discussed above, visual approach has been the successful approach since the invention of the motor car! :)

Horse and cart was successful for hundreds of years, but didn't mean that you couldn't do better.

You can solve things very easily with V2I and V2V that would be either very hard or impossible with a visual only approach, even one that has been augmented with AI. But there is a place for both, even when solving the same problem.
 
Horse and cart was successful for hundreds of years, but didn't mean that you couldn't do better.

You can solve things very easily with V2I and V2V that would be either very hard or impossible with a visual only approach, even one that has been augmented with AI. But there is a place for both, even when solving the same problem.

Indisputable, but that only covers an incredibly limited set of scenarios and is not Tesla's approach.

The problem with the above is the unexpected, the child running out into the road, a cyclist doing something dumb (as if), literally anything that you cannot "map". This is the stuff that HSD deals with on every trip and is why deep learning is the only true way forward. The one thing I think Tesla need is much much better quality vision; human eyesight is extraordinary, seemingly the vision quality going into the FSD computer is horrible, poor contrast, poor resolution, glary, smeary, to the point it is amazing it makes any sense of the mess

I am not a fan of Brexit one little bit, but you do wonder if HM Govt can diverge from the excessive restrictions EU regulators are implementing to my mind in an anti-competitive way as the EU manufacturers are way behind this tech.
Recent regulatory moves to limit AP bend radius and 15s nags just needlessly stifles development and ruins a capable product if used correctly. Currently there's a number of roads that my car used to drive quite happily but now just drops out.
 
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I'm interested to know what these are?

There's many... here's a few

1. It's common in the UK for roads to be too narrow for two lanes, yet it is two-way traffic. I'm sure you've been in a situation where you have to hunt for a "tuck in" space to allow cars coming the other way to pass. This type of negotiation is complex and undefined from a logic perspective; it relies on visual confirmation from the driver (often subtly), and a degree of determination. This is very common - not just small village high streets, but most residential roads in central London suffer from cars parked on both sides of the road, leaving a single lane down the middle for two-way traffic to negotiate.

2. Constant split n' merge over junctions; this happens all the time in London; there will be a split into two lanes just for a traffic light, with a quick merge across a box junction, then immediately back to single lane. This is supposed to help with flow, but actually doesn't... anyway, it's common to see some fairly aggressive driving in this regular situation.

3. Roundabouts where you must cross lanes whilst simultaneously merging in order to set up the exit - I'm sure we've all been "round the roundabout" before because we simply weren't in the right lane to make the exit in time. This isn't always a navigation issue.

4. Single track roads that require passing places to be "remembered" then some advanced manoeuvring and negotiation to either reverse back to a suitable driveway or dedicated passing place, in order for cars to be able to pass successfully.

5. Specific local restrictions; an obvious example of this would be timed-access for bus lanes, or the Sunday parking rules in London - where cars can seemingly park in the middle of the road, but only on a Sunday.

6. The love of the British public to cycle or walk out in front of a car... jaywalking is illegal in the US, and cyclists and motorists don't often share the same spaces at such tight tolerances as we do in the UK

Having driven extensively in both the US and the UK (well, ok, mostly in London)... I can confirm that you just don't really see the same level of driving chaos. A quick pop around the Vauxhall gyratory would be most informative for Mr Musk (in more ways than one).

visual approach has been the successful approach since the invention of the motor car!

Many people die in car accidents every year, and the only thing that causes that number to go down is better safety - like airbags, seatbelts etc - not better driving. Also, don't confuse the "human visual approach" with cameras. We have a lifetime of experience that our very, very sophisticated brain uses to make predictions and assumptions in a myriad of ways - and we also don't just use our eyes; we also use our ears, plus previous experience of the route/road and judgements about e.g drivers, cars etc. We don't just "see space, fill space". There's a huge variation between a good driver and a bad driver, and I can assume that both bad and good drivers have two eyes (or at least one).

This would take a long time for every single traffic light to be updated (including all temporary lights)

Not really. Couple of years if they went really slowly? It wouldn't necessarily need the traffic light to be updated; the sensors/broadcast devices don't need to be _inside_ the traffic light. Just nearby and connected to the traffic control systems (which is fairly straight forward). The difficult part is getting a government to decide on a sensible and usable comms protocol, then bringing in swift regulation to ensure cars use it.

[traffic lights] seems to be coping really well and learning quickly in the USA already, I don't think this will be a problem at all.

Well, again - at the moment it requires a lot of user confirmation, and it works because US traffic lights are really simple. They hang over the road, and turn green when you need to go, and turn red when you should stop, with a nice clear line that you're not allowed to cross. It's a good system. In the UK we have a penchant for traffic light trees with duplication, and it's not always clear which traffic light relates to which lane. Sometimes, if you're at the front of the queue, the cameras can't see the traffic light (since it's basically above you), and then it becomes far less clear which light to defer to...

I could go on, but you get the idea. I'm not saying these are insurmountable issues for software; I'm just saying it would be FAR easier to solve them with infrastructure changes and V2V/V2I comms.

You can solve things very easily with V2I and V2V that would be either very hard or impossible with a visual only approach

I agree 100%
 
I am not a fan of Brexit one little bit, but you do wonder if HM Govt can diverge from the excessive restrictions EU regulators are implementing to my mind in an anti-competitive way as the EU manufacturers are way behind this tech.
Recent regulatory moves to limit AP bend radius and 15s nags just needlessly stifles development and ruins a capable product if used correctly. Currently there's a number of roads that my car used to drive quite happily but now just drops out.

As has been mentioned before, these are not EU regulations, these come under the UN ...
 
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Not really. Couple of years if they went really slowly?

If we were taking about Highways England maybe. The motorways aren’t the main challenge though.

Sorry to be a dream crusher but in reality it looks a bit more like:

(committees to agree standards + politics + budgets + governance + specifying + procurement + delivery) x c200 local authorities.

Been phasing in LED street lights for years: They’re still at it.

More realistically you’re looking at 5-10 years. Local Government isn’t run by Elon Musk!
 
FSD with US regs requires the driver to apply light pressure to the steering wheel every minute or so... here every 15 seconds so the driver is basically in control the whole time anyway.

Although the concept of FSD would justify me spending this sort of money (or more), the reality at the moment seems rather pointless.

I want to have FSD but until this requirement is removed I won't.