FSD V11 Discussion - First Released 11/11/22 at 11:11PM - Maybe

(moderator note: Added maybe to the title. This may be an alpha or beta release, so “release” is relative. Stay tuned.)

We finally have confirmation of the release of FSD V11. This presumably is single stack; we’ll see, as the question was left unanswered. I guess it will still be called FSD Beta V11?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591336830389067778

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[willow_hiller]

Timeline confirmation from Elon:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594458275013181443

 

[JulienW]

Timeline confirmation from Elon:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594458275013181443

So........is next month in Elon speak supposed to be more optimistic or more pessimistic than the last v11 "timeline confirmation" of before T-Day?

 

[EVNow]

So........is next month in Elon speak supposed to be more optimistic or more pessimistic than the last v11 "timeline confirmation" of before T-Day?

View attachment 876613

Different things.

Widen V11 = sending to more employees / YouTubers
Wide release = All current beta testers

I just hope in December Tesla can achieve two things
- V11 to all testers
- FSDb to all who paid for FSD

Not much time left.

 

[qdeathstar]

Different things.

Widen V11 = sending to more employees / YouTubers
Wide release = All current beta testers

I just hope in December Tesla can achieve two things
- V11 to all testers
- FSDb to all who paid for FSD

Not much time left.

I think your first request has much higher probability than the second one.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

In between Tweets about Alex Jones and merkins, Elon has blessed us with clarity:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594549300276916224

 

[qdeathstar]

Is latter the first thing further back or the second thing after the first thing?

 

[boonedocks]

Is latter the first thing further back or the second thing after the first thing?

It means either one. That way the statement remains true

 

[Gray Man]

Is latter the first thing further back or the second thing after the first thing?

The former and the latter. Standard usage. The "former" is the first thing. The "latter" is the second thing.

 

[MrFusion4]

The former and the latter. Standard usage. The "former" is the first thing. The "latter" is the second thing.

sweet so basically WIDE RELEASE NEXT MONTH W NO SAFETY SCORE!

 

[Twiglett]

sweet so basically WIDE RELEASE NEXT MONTH W NO SAFETY SCORE!

now we just have to define "next month"

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

sweet so basically WIDE RELEASE NEXT MONTH W NO SAFETY SCORE!

Just remember that in this context, “next month” means January, or possibly February. This is just standard usage of “next”

 

[kriskros91]

Just remember that in this context, “next month” means January, or possibly February. This is just standard usage of “next”

I think we will see it before 2023. Elon will deliver on his goal on wide release with the holiday update. I also wonder if "FSD beta" releases are going to stop from here on out. They can just update fsd beta with production updates when they feel like it similar to autopilot/autosteer updates.

I also wonder if the strike system will be removed. If everyone gets access to it will they really punish bad drivers anymore?

 

[uscbucsfan]

I also wonder if the strike system will be removed. If everyone gets access to it will they really punish bad drivers anymore?

I think it's a safe bet they will keep the strike system, but how long users are left out in the cold after striking out is a question. Likely the next update will remove strikes, but it could be a twice a year thing like it is now.

 

[Dewg]

I think we will see it before 2023. Elon will deliver on his goal on wide release with the holiday update. I also wonder if "FSD beta" releases are going to stop from here on out. They can just update fsd beta with production updates when they feel like it similar to autopilot/autosteer updates.

I also wonder if the strike system will be removed. If everyone gets access to it will they really punish bad drivers anymore?

Not quite yet. The single-stack update (FSD Beta V11) is going to the FSD Beta fleet first for testing. Once it's validated with the FSD Beta fleet, it will be rolled out to the general code branch.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Elon will deliver on his goal on wide release with the holiday update.

Releasing only to people who request it is not “wide release.”

Wide release is having it available to anyone who pays for it (possibly requiring a toggle to be flipped, along with agreeing to whatever verbiage on the screen about how to use it).

If they release only to anyone who has requested access to FSD Beta, that is a limited release.

Elon may use the term wide release, but that is not what it is. (It’s clear in prior posts here long ago what the definition is.) This is analogous to Elon saying that Teslas now have Birds-Eye view…this is “true,” but it is actually false; he cannot just redefine what things mean!

Since this is not wide release, I expect the strike system to remain in full effect for now.

I don’t know when FSD will be released to the fleet, aka wide release (for that, they’ll have to have some sort of system that restores access at some point, in a fairly timely manner , rather the strike system). We don’t have a current timeline for that, I don’t think (can’t remember what the latest goal was).

 

[Dewg]

On a total aside, I was reading an article on Aviation and Automation. Apparently, regulators are pushing for more automation to help reduce the load on pilots (and potentially eliminate co-pilots for some flights).

I recall many discussions about the term "autopilot" in Tesla vs the aviation industry. And this observation from a pilot was an eye opener, and drew parallels to Tesla and some of the issues AP/FSD have had:

And for those who are bound to bring up the statistic that 80% of crashes are pilot error: in the vast majority of cases where automation screws up (which happens a lot), a crash is prevented by the intervention of the pilots. In my career as a pilot I've already had multiple cases where the automation did something stupid (or just stopped functioning) and where the plane would have crashed if we hadn't been there. Take the pilots out and you'll get an order of magnitude more crashes.

Also, many crashes that are really caused by automation are (correctly) classified as pilot error because the pilots could have prevented the crash but did not. Just to give one example, the Turkish Airlines crash in Amsterdam on a fully automatic Cat III approach that stalled because of a radio altimeter malfunction. The autopilot thought it was right above the runway while in fact it was still at a height of 400 feet. It pulled the throttles back, the airspeed decreased, the plane stalled and crashed. Pilot error because they should have been closely monitoring the airspeed and should have immediately intervened when the throttles were pulled back.

 

[kriskros91]

Releasing only to people who request it is not “wide release.”

Wide release is having it available to anyone who pays for it (possibly requiring a toggle to be flipped, along with agreeing to whatever verbiage on the screen about how to use it).

If they release only to anyone who has requested access to FSD Beta, that is a limited release.

I'm not sure why you are changing what I said to mean something different than what I wrote. I said he will release it with the holiday update before 2023. I actually fully expect it to be the wide release that you mention where it will just be a toggle with information to agree to like autosteer (beta) and navigate on autopilot (beta) are right now.

The reason I'm fairly sure of it is that he literally responded to someone on Twitter asking if it would be a release without a safety score requirement and he confirmed it (the "Latter" tweet)

I also wonder if the snapshot button being removed from fsd beta means that they don't really care as much about what us beta testers think is relevant to report anymore. There's no report button on Autosteer (beta) for those not on FSDbeta but there is probably some system internally to review disengagements. I think they will use their simulator and disengagement data from now on to train the NNs.

 

[JulienW]

....The reason I'm fairly sure of it is that he literally responded to someone on Twitter asking if it would be a release without a safety score requirement and he confirmed it (the "Latter" tweet)....

Are you new to Elon's announcements on Tweeter or timeline predictions? He literally says timelines for all kinds of stuff that don't happen or happen much later. It is a rarity that a timeline he states is meet. It is called Elon time and you can master it in "two weeks".

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I'm not sure why you are changing what I said to mean something different than what I wrote

Sorry, I did not realize you meant true wide release (meaning that you think Elon means wide release).

The reason I'm fairly sure of it is that he literally responded to someone on Twitter asking if it would be a release without a safety score requirement and he confirmed it

Releasing without a safety score requirement (which sounds like it will happen “soon”) does not necessarily equal a wide release, as discussed.

Obviously the timeline could be off too, but that is neither here nor there.

 

[Supcom]

I'm not sure why you are changing what I said to mean something different than what I wrote. I said he will release it with the holiday update before 2023. I actually fully expect it to be the wide release that you mention where it will just be a toggle with information to agree to like autosteer (beta) and navigate on autopilot (beta) are right now.

The reason I'm fairly sure of it is that he literally responded to someone on Twitter asking if it would be a release without a safety score requirement and he confirmed it (the "Latter" tweet)

I also wonder if the snapshot button being removed from fsd beta means that they don't really care as much about what us beta testers think is relevant to report anymore. There's no report button on Autosteer (beta) for those not on FSDbeta but there is probably some system internally to review disengagements. I think they will use their simulator and disengagement data from now on to train the NNs.

I expect the report button has been removed because Tesla has found ways to automatically generate reports for situations where they need data. They can use various automatic triggers like when the user disconnects or even when a user drives the car differently than what FSDb would do if it was active. I expect that FSDb is always running even if it is not active. So, or example, if Tesla wants data on the car entering roundabouts, they could possibly set triggers to generate data anytime the user intervenes at a roundabout, or even drives manually through a roudabout.