FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[jeewee3000]

Teslascope has a pretty good track record.
This was interesting

View attachment 995284

That tweet is about Tesla software version 12, not FSD v12. Teslascope thinks so, but doesn't prove anything (and their track record is pretty bad in my view, they make a huge story out of every tiny detail and 90% of what they speculate turns out to be wrong).

The earlier tweet is:

https://x.com/teslascope/status/1730353955790602296?s=20

And then they state: https://x.com/teslascope/status/1730353955790602296?s=20

They think "(fsd) v12 is just around the corner" but the reality is that firmware v12 is just around the corner. About FSD v12 they have not the slightest clue.

 

[willow_hiller]

They really don't. Off the top of my head they were wrong about the front camera in the S/X with HW4, the S/X refresh coming in Q4 and multiple bad v11 timelines.

I can't recall them breaking anything legit.

They definitely appear to have a couple of contacts inside Tesla. But I think even knowledgeable contacts inside Tesla can be wrong.

 

[uscbucsfan]

That tweet is about Tesla software version 12, not FSD v12. Teslascope thinks so, but doesn't prove anything (and their track record is pretty bad in my view, they make a huge story out of every tiny detail and 90% of what they speculate turns out to be wrong).

The earlier tweet is:

https://x.com/teslascope/status/1730353955790602296?s=20

And then they state: https://x.com/teslascope/status/1730353955790602296?s=20

They think "(fsd) v12 is just around the corner" but the reality is that firmware v12 is just around the corner. About FSD v12 they have not the slightest clue.

It seems like they got confused like the tons of people on Facebook did when the CT was featuring UI/Software V12.

That being said, I do think there's a chance all vehicles get a version of V12 UI for the Holiday release...nothing to do with FSD though. It still looks like 11.4.8 is being tested internally.

 

[jeewee3000]

It seems like they got confused like the tons of people on Facebook did when the CT was featuring UI/Software V12.

That being said, I do think there's a chance all vehicles get a version of V12 UI for the Holiday release...nothing to do with FSD though. It still looks like 11.4.8 is being tested internally.

v12 UI can be close, sure. But FSD v12 is not close to wide release. I'm guessing Q2 2024 at the earliest.

 

[jebinc]

v12 UI can be close, sure. But FSD v12 is not close to wide release. I'm guessing Q2 2024 at the earliest.

Both could be true, depending on what Tesla really means when they say, "in 2024" and "in 2025" for Cybertruck deliveries... Given all of the other deceptive numbers on that order page, there probably is a reason why a quarter, i.e., 1Q24, was not used.... Reality/Tesla plan really could be, "4Q 2024," in which case, v12 UI and v12 FSDj could be on the truck.... Only the Great Charlatan knows....

 

[Iain]

Let’s face it - we didn’t hear much of anything at the delivery event….

I think you answered the question. It was a delivery event.

 

[rlsd]

No chance for V12 release this year.

2023.27.12 Official Tesla Release Notes - Software Updates

Tesla software update 2023.27.12 (FSD 11.4.8.1) includes Single Pull to Start Autopilot, FSD Beta 11.4.8.1.

www.notateslaapp.com

 

[aronth5]

They really don't. Off the top of my head they were wrong about the front camera in the S/X with HW4, the S/X refresh coming in Q4 and multiple bad v11 timelines.

I can't recall them breaking anything legit.

I would disagree. They are off on timelines but who isn't when it comes to Tesla. And they sometimes make mistakes but generally there a decent source for where things are going with Tesla. Certainly a helpful source of information.
From today "Full Self-Driving (Beta) v11.4.8.1 is now going out to employees as @Tesla software update 2023.27.12."

 

[jebinc]

I would disagree. They are off on timelines but who isn't when it comes to Tesla. And they sometimes make mistakes but generally there a decent source for where things are going with Tesla. Certainly a helpful source of information.
From today "Full Self-Driving (Beta) v11.4.8.1 is now going out to employees as @Tesla software update 2023.27.12."

Still on a 6 month old branch, however - Happy Holiday's to all OG testers!

 

[Supcom]

No chance for V12 release this year.

2023.27.12 Official Tesla Release Notes - Software Updates

Tesla software update 2023.27.12 (FSD 11.4.8.1) includes Single Pull to Start Autopilot, FSD Beta 11.4.8.1.

www.notateslaapp.com

Teslascope states that FSD V12 went to less than 100 managers and execs, yet still predicts rollout at the end of the year. They do weasel-word it though stating that V12 could slip into next year.

I'd say that testing by less than 100 employees less a month before planned delivery is a pretty good indication of a slip into next year!

The only V12 I expect to see this year is the reworked V12 UI.

 

[rlsd]

I don't know why Telescope wants to confuse people. When people say V11, V12 we understand that they are V11, V12 FSD versions. There is nothing called V12 software without FSD. The firmware/UI version is called 2023.x.y

 

[uscbucsfan]

I don't know why Telescope wants to confuse people. When people say V11, V12 we understand that they are V11, V12 FSD versions. There is nothing called V12 software without FSD. The firmware/UI version is called 2023.x.y

What?

The UI has a versioning. V11 came out 2 years ago and people still confuse it with FSD. V12 was first released with the CT yesterday and many are confused still.

Just go to your car and see for yourself. (Hint: you do not have FSD 11.1 currently).

 

[rlsd]

My app says version 2023.27.7. Release notes say FSD version 11.4.7.3. Where can I find UI version?

 

[uscbucsfan]

My app says version 2023. Release notes say FSD version 11.4.7.3. Where can I find UI version?

In the car, under software.

 

[Mardak]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1730361048060866796

It wouldn't be surprising that Tesla will try to bundle both UI and FSD related updates that happen to share a "next" version of 12. Seems like we're in a similar situation to last year where even within employees, there's some getting the next FSD (this year 12.x, last year 11.x) while others were getting incremental updates (this year 11.4.x, last year 10.69.x). Where both need some testing in parallel before going out to customers in case one isn't ready for holiday update deadline.

 

[Supcom]

It wouldn't be surprising that Tesla will try to bundle both UI and FSD related updates that happen to share a "next" version of 12. Seems like we're in a similar situation to last year where even within employees, there's some getting the next FSD (this year 12.x, last year 11.x) while others were getting incremental updates (this year 11.4.x, last year 10.69.x). Where both need some testing in parallel before going out to customers in case one isn't ready for holiday update deadline.

The new UI and (maybe) new FSD version numbers are just coincidental. UI V11 came out long before FSD V11. The same may yet hold true for V12.

 

[diplomat33]

Tesla AI just posted this:

Tesla AI is building next-generation autonomy on a single foundation video network that directly drives the car. Join the team and build state-of-the-art end-to-end models using massive fleet data on one of the world's largest training clusters.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1730761835694153790

"single foundation video that directly drives the car" certainly sounds like true end-to-end to me. Tesla is saying that they are taking all the video clips from the Tesla fleet and building a single model that they are using to train FSD to drive. Of course, Tesla is not finished yet. But Tesla is definitely making the claim of true end-to-end. So I would say V12 is true end-to-end, video in, control out.

 

[spacecoin]

Tesla AI just posted this:

"single foundation video that directly drives the car" certainly sounds like true end-to-end to me. Tesla is saying that they are taking all the video clips from the Tesla fleet and building a single model that they are using to train FSD to drive. Of course, Tesla is not finished yet. But Tesla is definitely making the claim of true end-to-end. So I would say V12 is true end-to-end, video in, control out.

”next generation” may be v13 for all we know, but it sure sounds like an e2e effort. Will be interesting to see the results.

 

[legendsk]

Even if it were wide release today I would not install until the other guinea pigs (yous guys) give it a good shakedown for two or three weeks if not longer. History repeats and it will be filled with bugs.

Be careful what you wish for. Been there, done that.

Not sure why, but "two weeks" feels like a perfect delay before jumping on it.

 

[Supcom]

Any reports of the V12 employee release expanding beyond the initial 100 cars? It's been pretty quiet. I suspect this release is already gone to retraining. If so, it will be interesting to see how long the recycle time is.

Teslascope is starting to walk back their optimism. Now saying that V12 will be end of the month, at the earliest, but could easily slip to Jan or Feb. They aren't saying anything about the current version expanding.