FSD v12.x (end to end AI)

[TK211X]

FSD V11&12 can be categorized as

SAE Level 3

But is advertised as SAE Level 2 for liability purposes.

You’re welcome.

I hope 12.3.2.1 goes wide to everyone with normal waves over next few days.

 

[Daniel in SD]

FSD V11&12 can be categorized as

SAE Level 3

But is advertised as SAE Level 2 for liability purposes.

You’re welcome.

I hope 12.3.2.1 goes wide to everyone with normal waves over next few days.

There is nothing about FSD beta that suggests it’s L3. The operational design domain is basically unlimited and the system never makes a request to intervene with enough time for the user to safely regain situational awareness. The system is L5 but advertised as L2 for liability and regulatory purposes.

 

[j0shm1lls]

Well, I'm happy and bummed at the same time. I got my new X, pretty much flawless with the exception of being delivered with FSD 11.4.9 (2024.2.200). I guess whoever checked in the vehicle went to the software tab and checked for updates (and burned my daily check) before my FSD transfer completed so it didn't pull any new FSD software and now I'm stuck on 11.4.9. I'm hoping that at least when the 24 hour cooldown is up tomorrow I'll be back on 12.3.2.

 

[Todd Burch]

funny, but not funny for you
this is a video history system, using past human driving behavior plus cameras, guess most Tesla owners curb, camera should have protected you

The parking lot network isn’t in use yet.

I’m pretty sure Tesla will use at least three networks: city streets, highways, and parking lots. (And maybe a separate network for parking garages?).

Each will be trained on videos from just that driving regime, so each will become an expert in that regime. But of course we currently only have an early version of the city streets one (the most difficult)—so it’s best not to stress-test FSD in parking lots unless you’re a glutton for punishment/embarassment/car damage.

 

[eli_]

Had weird disengagement on 12.3 where the car was completely stopped waiting for traffic, and while stopped the steering wheel starts rapidly turning to the right for no reason. It got almost up to 120 degrees or so of steering angle before I disengaged FSD. If it drove forward like that it would have veered into a planter box.

 

[FSDtester#1]

The parking lot network isn’t in use yet.

I’m pretty sure Tesla will use at least three networks: city streets, highways, and parking lots. (And maybe a separate network for parking garages?).

Each will be trained on videos from just that driving regime, so each will become an expert in that regime. But of course we currently only have an early version of the city streets one (the most difficult)—so it’s best not to stress-test FSD in parking lots unless you’re a glutton for punishment/embarassment/car damage.

I think Jelly Belly Bean girl or whatever her name is would benefit from your post.

 

[AndrewZ]

Final release of FSD “City Streets”.
For FSD itself they’ll be L5 when they get to 1-2 million miles per driver interaction (this is of course not how AV testing works).
View attachment 1032826

This is the one that I always come back to, and it feels pretty unambiguous to me but I understand people not wanting to believe it.

Tesla isn't exactly unbiased on their own assessment though. It's preferable from a regulatory standpoint for Tesla if everyone considers FSD a level 2 system. That was four years ago - clearly FSD was going to be L2 for the forseeable future in 2020 (Elon's comments aside, lol).

If they get to a point where they can make money from a L3 or L4 system of course they'll do that, regardless of what they told the Cali DMV 8 years ago or however long it is.

TLDR I don't think those comments tell us much about either Tesla's intents or forecasted progress.

There is tons of scrutiny of Level 2 systems, the regulators have been pretty far up in Tesla’s business along the way. It’s Level 2 because Tesla can’t accept liability for what the system does, because the resulting accidents and lawsuits would be huge lol — even one bad accident is a huge deal, as evidenced with Cruise.

 

[JHCCAZ]

Doc is on ludes also?
Speak English....!!

Doc ( @sleepydoc ), I think he needs us to speak in CPA - I'll try:

Engage Full Self-Driving (beta) using the Instructions for Form 2023 44.30 25 and report all Non- Statutory disengagement events using Form 2024.3 6 which will be available before April 15, 2024 subject to Federal guidance to be adjudicated prior to publication. (Unless the vehicle does not have a Qualified Individual Installation status for 2023, in that case carry over the Unqualified amount from prior years and substitute the instructions for Basic Autopilot in form 2023.44.1.1 and enter Zero in the Speed Limit Offset entry for Full Self Driving ( Beta). However, If the vehicle was purchased prior to January 1, 2017 or the driver is Blind and not Married Driving Jointly, enter the Depreciation amount for the Loss of Use Deduction and report all Disengagements to the joint Driver, without claiming exemptions for Ordinary Gain or Loss contention activity in the vehicular domicile.

Something like that anyway..

 

[FSDtester#1]

Doc ( @sleepydoc ), I think he needs us to speak in CPA - I'll try:

Engage Full Self-Driving (beta) using the Instructions for Form 2023 44.30 25 and report all Non- Statutory disengagement events using Form 2024.3 6 which will be available before April 15, 2024 subject to Federal guidance to be adjudicated prior to publication. (Unless the vehicle does not have a Qualified Individual Installation status for 2023, in that case carry over the Unqualified amount from prior years and substitute the instructions for Basic Autopilot in form 2023.44.1.1 and enter Zero in the Speed Limit Offset entry for Full Self Driving ( Beta). However, If the vehicle was purchased prior to January 1, 2017 or the driver is Blind and not Married Driving Jointly, enter the Depreciation amount for the Loss of Use Deduction and report all Disengagements to the joint Driver, without claiming exemptions for Ordinary Gain or Loss contention activity in the vehicular domicile.

Something like that anyway..

Thank you, now I understand

The IRS is the: Imaging Recognition System Tesla is using to facilitate our FSD

 

[dansev]

Just installed 2024.3.6 on my new 2023 (I got one of the last ones in February) MY. I have 250 miles of driving between Thursday and Saturday. Looking forward to trying out 12.3.2.1.go….

 

[Hiline]

Just installed 2024.3.6 on my new 2023 (I got one of the last ones in February) MY. I have 250 miles of driving between Thursday and Saturday. Looking forward to trying out 12.3.2.1.go….

Careful. The improvements are all in city street driving - highway driving is the same, and the transition between city street and highway and vice versa can be unpredictable and dangerous - I would pay extra attention around highway entrances and exits. Otherwise, enjoy the ride!

 

[Daniel in SD]

This is the one that I always come back to, and it feels pretty unambiguous to me but I understand people not wanting to believe it.

View attachment 1032903

There is tons of scrutiny of Level 2 systems, the regulators have been pretty far up in Tesla’s business along the way. It’s Level 2 because Tesla can’t accept liability for what the system does, because the resulting accidents and lawsuits would be huge lol — even one bad accident is a huge deal, as evidenced with Cruise.

What’s the OEDR of an end to end NN based system? There’s also the fact that Tesla doesn’t even define the OEDR of FSD beta. And there’s the CEO of the company saying that the goal of V12 is unsupervised operation.
Tesla has found that draconian driver monitoring is enough to make FSD beta testing as safe as manual driving. I would be curious how the safety would compare to manual driving using the same driver monitoring.

 

[JHCCAZ]

The IRS is the: Imaging Recognition System Tesla is using to facilitate our FSD

Also the Incipient Revenue Stimulus, their internal code name for the FSD trial offer.

(Unless there's a terrible accident, in which case it could be be the immediately Retracted Software)

 

[Kablooie]

Also the Incipient Revenue Stimulus, their internal code name for the FSD trial offer.

(Unless there's a terrible accident, in which case it could be be the immediately Retracted Software)

I'll bet Tesla expects Tesla accidents to notably decrease during the trial FSD period. Once they decrease to a certain point they can begin to consider eye and hands off driving. Once true, unmonitored self driving is implemented, sales could increase a lot.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Sometimes this thread feels a bit like end-to-end Tulip mania.

v12 is good, and makes some impressive moves, but it is not like it is a game changer - we’re not even close to a single order of magnitude improvement over v11 yet!

Let’s at least wait for a second and maybe even a third data point to allow us to see if dramatic improvement is actually going to happen.

Don’t believe the hype. Wait for someone, anyone, to demonstrate that this is going to work (meaning rapidly - exponentially - improve), on fixed inference hardware.

Also, focus on the fundamentals - really try to feel/estimate how far the car can see, and determine what latency the system seems to have (yellow lights seem like they might be one way to assess this). Is it good enough yet? Or does the NN introduce too much latency? It needs to be better than a human.

 

[Yelobird]

Sometimes this thread feels a bit like end-to-end Tulip mania.

v12 is good, and makes some impressive moves, but it is not like it is a game changer - we’re not even close to a single order of magnitude improvement over v11 yet!

Let’s at least wait for a second and maybe even a third data point to allow us to see if dramatic improvement is actually going to happen.

Don’t believe the hype. Wait for someone, anyone, to demonstrate that this is going to work (meaning rapidly - exponentially - improve), on fixed inference hardware.

Also, focus on the fundamentals - really try to feel/estimate how far the car can see, and determine what latency the system seems to have (yellow lights seem like they might be one way to assess this). Is it good enough yet? Or does the NN introduce too much latency? It needs to be better than a human.

Seems dam near perfect to me by comparison to previous versions granted I’m not hunting for a chauffeur replacement.

 

[hey8you]

Tried V12.3 in some spots V11 had issues in. There is a freeway onramp in SF where V11(2 different versions) would have a seizure. V11 would take it very slow with nonstop hesitation. Twice it gave up and tried to drive into the guard rail on the far side. The other times it would figure it out. V12.3 did it like a person would take it so big improvement here. A spot in Concord, V12.3 failed at the same spot V11 fails at. When exiting the freeway using lane 2, you are supposed to go to lane 3 on Monument but both versions of FSD enters lane 2.

 

[JulienW]

Indeed. My opinion is that Tesla will ignore the SAE standards and simply define stuff as it wants .. pretty much the way they demolished CCS by presenting NACS as a fait accompli.

Tesla turned NACS over to the SAE so it could become a standard and it is now the SAE J3400 connector.

 

[JulienW]

As I said in my post, I know I'm queued up to get 2023.44.30.14.

And I know I need that, plus the games add-on and a NAV update (that is also out of date) before I would seem to be ready for 2023.44.30.30 which seems to be the Canadian version with V12.3.1 although there are also Canadian cars getting 2024.3.6 with V12.3.2.1. (including some MYs with HW3.)

Will the SC do all three of those downloads, install the firmware update (IIRC map and game updates don't need installation, just downloading) and then will they download and install the next update that gets me to V12.X.X?

That would definitely confirm the speculation is that the service centres are updating all cars that come in for service to V12.x.x.

If they don't, then I'll get the download notification for the update with V12 about a week later. At least that's what happened last time I had to do a 2 stage update from somewhat old v10 to less old V10, to V11 (which was the software I was after.)

The SC dosn't have any power to select or force an update. They just install update(s) that the motherships sends.

 

[aronth5]

Sometimes this thread feels a bit like end-to-end Tulip mania.

v12 is good, and makes some impressive moves, but it is not like it is a game changer - we’re not even close to a single order of magnitude improvement over v11 yet!

For me V12 is absolutely a game changer. The improvement is very significant. I have 1 drive I've been doing for 2.5 years with 27 FSD issues that I could count on would happen every drive. Every single one is corrected with V12. I was amazed, plus I can now use V12 with my spouse in the car. I'd call that a game changer "for me".