Full Self-Driving Capability

[hmcgregoraz]

I looked at FSD the same way I look at a Kickstarter project.

Supporting the work on something I am interested in.

I am happy we did it for our Model X, but probably will not do it for our Model 3 when ever we confirm it. I am still debating standard range vs long range on the model 3.

We have a Model X 90D, and are very happy with it.

 

[_jmk]

The interest on this loan is 33%. ($4000 down the road, vs. $3000 if prepaid at the time of the order.) And it can be financed at just 0.99%
I didn't order the FSD option with my Model S, but I wish I did, as I am pretty sure I'll be adding it in the next couple of years.

I think they will eventually deliver some kind of FSD, but that is several years away still and you will probably not get what you expected at the time of ordering. Odds are that there are also competing FSDs on the market at that time that will also have an affect on the FSDs future price. It can be more than the advertised 4k or less than that.

 

[drewg123]

Reading replies bring up an interesting question for me. I paid for FSD with HW2.0. So let's say you did not pay for FSD with HW2.0 and saved yourself $4K. When FSD becomes available and you want to purchase it, I think it's been said that it'll cost $4K + $1K(prepurchase advantage) = $5K additional in SOFTWARE upgrade. What if HW2.0 isn't up to snuff for FSD, and FSD requires HW2.5? Since I have already paid for FSD, Tesla has to upgrade me to HW2.5 to allow for FSD. You on the other hand cannot get FSD even with $5K in hand because it requires a HARDWARE upgrade as well, which could be significant.

I'm getting close to ordering my X. The above reasoning is part of the rationale that I'm using to justify paying for FSD now. I'm also looking at it as a gamble.

If we loose and they never deliver FSD, then I get to just be as bitter as the rest of you who have paid and gotten nothing. In the worst case, I'll wind up as part of some class action suit where the lawyers will fleece Tesla for millions, and pass on peanuts to the class members.

But if we *win*, then I get the freaking car of the future. I get a car that can take my wife to work in the city and drop her off at the door (rather than driving around to find a spot, and getting wet / cold / hot on the long walk to her office from a lousy spot), then come back home and take my kid to school (instead of me). This would save my wife and I roughly 2 hours a day. That's HUGE.

So, to me, the upside is huge, and the downside is tiny. My wife and I are on the fence about getting a 7 vs 6 seater anyway. The FSD upgrade is $3K, and the difference in price between the 7 seater and the 6 seater is also $3K. So if we get the 7 seater, we've basically gotten FSD for "free". If that turns out to be what it was worth, then we didn't loose much. But if it pays off, it is *huge*.

 

[thomasmb]

I had the same view on this as @drewg123 – although I must admit that I am slightly less hopeful now than last year – mostly just about the timeline. My hope was initially that we eventually could have just the one car instead of 2.

My views when we ordered last year:

• Considered it an interest free loan to support Tesla in building the future
• Cheaper than adding it later
  
• Price might actually increase further, like what happened to AP1
  
• Maybe an insurance in case new hardware is required?

Additionally I expect a lot of functionality to go into FSD, while many seem to consider anything leading up to driverless-AP to be EAP. For example handling traffic lights, stop signs, intersections, roundabouts (eventually), road crossings, etc, are all things I assume will be part of FSD, not EAP. But hey, who knows.

 

[mickey6]

I suspect Tesla will use the FSD hardware (cameras etc) for other purposes. Perhaps allow 360 degree view using all cameras as a starter or some other feature that only customers that have the FSD would be able to use. The point is, give a little something to the current and future customers to keep them engaged or interested else it's game over and soon some other car manufacturer will leap frog Tesla in FSD and capabilities.

 

[ABC2D]

This might be important:

During Tesla Q3 earnings call Musk said. “But for customers that have purchased the full autonomy option, if it does turn out that it requires computer upgrade for full autonomy, we will replace their computer — it’s just a matter of unplug the old computer, plug the new one in.”

I think he might be alluding that "Full Self-Driving Capability" is the option to "lock in" the price of possible new hardware upgrade required for FSD; folks that did not buy the option will have to pay for the upgrade.

 

[AdamHLG]

Don't forget that the availability of FSD is only the beginning. Once it is actually available, there will still be regulatory approval by the federal government and or state governments before Tesla can flip the switch. For example, recreational marijuana is generally available and I'm pretty sure they perfected that, but the states are very slow to actually approve it. lol j/k :--)

 

[ecarfan]

I think he might be alluding that "Full Self-Driving Capability" is the option to "lock in" the price of possible new hardware upgrade required for FSD; folks that did not buy the option will have to pay for the upgrade.

My interpretation of his statement is that if you have already bought FSDC and in the future Tesla determines that to make FSDC work a different computer is required you will get a new computer at no charge.

Of course at any time in the future Tesla could raise the price of the FSDC option for whatever reason they choose, including because a more powerful computer costs more, though the history of computer processing power clearly indicates that over time power increases while cost decreases.

So I am unclear as to why you assume that the FSDC option price will increase in the future if a different computer is used by Tesla. My expectation is that the FSDC option price is just as likely to decrease in the future as it is likely to increase, but it will probably remain the same for years to come.

Of course I could be wrong...

 

[ABC2D]

I think the only way price for FSDC could be reduced if:

• the FSD computer stays the same config as in Dec 2016 and, agree with you, with time, price of HW should decrease
• The development cost does not increase from Dec 2016

Possible reasons for the price to increase, on the other hand:

• Different hardware with more powerful processor - more expensive hardware
• Redundancy - more hardware
• Development cost

But, to be honest, my opinion is biased as I'm probably just looking for "reasons" to justify my own decision for having paid for FSDC

 

[vandacca]

Don't forget that the availability of FSD is only the beginning. Once it is actually available, there will still be regulatory approval by the federal government and or state governments before Tesla can flip the switch. For example, recreational marijuana is generally available and I'm pretty sure they perfected that, but the states are very slow to actually approve it. lol j/k :--)

I'm going to disagree with you on this one. In my opinion, FSD had nothing to do with technology nor with government regulation. It has everything to do with responsibility.

Tesla can continue to develop the technology in the vehicle to the point it can drive better than any human. It doesn't matter if regulations don't allow it, Tesla can continue to push out updates and improve it, as long as the driver remains responsible for the vehicle. If it takes years for the regulations to catch up, drivers still have the full benefit of the technology, but they must still remain in the driver's seat and are responsible for any accidents.

Once regulations catch up, then some or all the responsibility will shift to Tesla. Drivers will be able to jump out of the driver's seat and be freed to do more distracting activities at that point.

Therefore, government regulations only provide that last bit of freedom, but there is so much that Tesla can do even before the regulations catch up.

 

[AdamHLG]

I'm going to disagree with you on this one. In my opinion, FSD had nothing to do with technology nor with government regulation. It has everything to do with responsibility.

Tesla can continue to develop the technology in the vehicle to the point it can drive better than any human. It doesn't matter if regulations don't allow it, Tesla can continue to push out updates and improve it, as long as the driver remains responsible for the vehicle. If it takes years for the regulations to catch up, drivers still have the full benefit of the technology, but they must still remain in the driver's seat and are responsible for any accidents.

Once regulations catch up, then some or all the responsibility will shift to Tesla. Drivers will be able to jump out of the driver's seat and be freed to do more distracting activities at that point.

Therefore, government regulations only provide that last bit of freedom, but there is so much that Tesla can do even before the regulations catch up.

This would be great - I hope you are correct. My comment was based on the qualification / disclaimer on the webpage at the checkbox to order it. I thought that it meant regulatory approval was a qualification to enabling it. I definitely could be wrong.

 

[vandacca]

This would be great - I hope you are correct. My comment was based on the qualification / disclaimer on the webpage at the checkbox to order it. I thought that it meant regulatory approval was a qualification to enabling it. I definitely could be wrong.

I always took Tesla's reference to Regulatory Approval to be a legal requirement to cover their assets. However, in reality, they seem to be steam-rolling ahead with new features like auto-lane-change and auto-exit-ramp. Not sure when those features will be ready, but it sounds like they're still working on it and plan to release whenever its ready.

 

[jlarmstr]

Reiterating what others above said -- don't buy an option that is currently not enabled. Wait for it to be proven, then, if you want it... purchase it. Frankly, I believe we are 4-6 years away from FSD as a standard, and I also think the current AP2.0 (and even the AP2.5) HW is insufficient. I believe Tesla will need to move off nVidia altogether to get a working FSD vehicle.

 

[ChrML]

Reiterating what others above said -- don't buy an option that is currently not enabled. Wait for it to be proven, then, if you want it... purchase it. Frankly, I believe we are 4-6 years away from FSD as a standard, and I also think the current AP2.0 (and even the AP2.5) HW is insufficient. I believe Tesla will need to move off nVidia altogether to get a working FSD vehicle.

On the other hand, buying FSD is an insurance that you will get this feature for $3000 no matter what hardware upgrades are required. E.g. you bought the feature, not the hardware. With the obvious risk of the feature being delayed many years, you'll be the first to get it.

If you buy without FSD, Tesla does not have to give you this feature later for $3000. It might be $6000 or they don't want to sell it at all if it turns out adapting the hardware is more work than it's worth. Rendering the vehicle out of date wanting to buy a new Tesla if FSD is really something you want.

 

[ChrML]

Regulatory approval is no excuse for Tesla btw. There is no limit of how advanced a driver's assistance feature can be as long as the driver is in the seat, is paying attention and is responsible for the cars action and can take control.

If the driver's assistant happens to be so advanced that it can drive itself fully to your destination without input, the government cannot deny you that. So no excuse to not roll out these features.

But obviously long-distance summon and park seeking mode are features that WILL require government approval.

 

[banned-66611]

What's the deal if you don't buy the FSD option when you purchase the car? It says it is available as an upgrade later for a higher price, but is that a promise that the option will remain available?

I'm just thinking that they might need to do a hardware upgrade, which could be expensive. Being sold with that as a future option and then retracting it sounds like a consumer rights issue but I'm not sure.

 

[AdamHLG]

I'm going to enjoy what my soon to be new car offers me now. I'm saving FSD for my next Tesla in 4 or 5 years. It will match perfectly with the 700 mile range battery also available by then.

 

[Super_Popular]

I'm going to enjoy what my soon to be new car offers me now. I'm saving FSD for my next Tesla in 4 or 5 years. It will match perfectly with the 700 mile range battery also available by then.

4 - 5 years, 700 mile battery.

It better not be that long!

 

[chillaban]

What's the deal if you don't buy the FSD option when you purchase the car? It says it is available as an upgrade later for a higher price, but is that a promise that the option will remain available?

I'm just thinking that they might need to do a hardware upgrade, which could be expensive. Being sold with that as a future option and then retracting it sounds like a consumer rights issue but I'm not sure.

Technically, no, it's neither a promise that the option will always be able to be added later (prior case: Ludicrous retrofit/upgrade, was offered for a fee for a while, now just nope, gone, they don't feel like doing it anymore)…. nor is it that the price is stable (it could go up or down later. I would bet money it goes up especially if it requires hardware retrofit).


But I mean, it's all about whether or not that's enough justification to sink $3000 up front for a car that you may or may not even own when the feature gets delivered. A lot of people are saying skip it, and I can understand the reasoning.

 

[d21mike]

My interpretation of his statement is that if you have already bought FSDC and in the future Tesla determines that to make FSDC work a different computer is required you will get a new computer at no charge.

Of course at any time in the future Tesla could raise the price of the FSDC option for whatever reason they choose, including because a more powerful computer costs more, though the history of computer processing power clearly indicates that over time power increases while cost decreases.

So I am unclear as to why you assume that the FSDC option price will increase in the future if a different computer is used by Tesla. My expectation is that the FSDC option price is just as likely to decrease in the future as it is likely to increase, but it will probably remain the same for years to come.

Of course I could be wrong...

My take on the "history of computer processing power" comment. I am getting the iPhone X and even though computers are getting cheaper it is the most expensive iPhone to date. Also, memory upgrades on iPhones are always much more expensive then they are to make. I would be shocked to see FSD being cheaper just because computers are cheaper per compute power of the chip. I did buy FSD for $3,000 on 9/28/17. When I ordered it said it would be $4,000 if I bought after delivery. But my understanding was the $4,000 was not a fixed number for the life of my ownership of the car. From the beginning I felt I definitely wanted FSD (or any part of it like stop lights etc) and did not want to to pay $4,000+ later. I also felt that they may need to replace my hardware (and I have AP 2.5) and wanted to make sure I would/could get that upgrade. Of course, they could come back to us and say "sorry" but we can not deliver FSD on your car and here is your money back (or something else). But, I think if you do not buy it up front and they for some reason feel it is not worth it to upgrade the hardware and add the software for only $4,000 then I would expect it to be more to get the feature.