Future of FSD after "traffic light & stop sign response" release

[diplomat33]

Now that we got the release of the first FSD feature listed on the website, and the first feature that diverges from Enhanced Autopilot, I thought we could talk about the current state and future of FSD.

Three topics come to mind:

1) This initial release of "traffic light & stop sign response" is the equivalent of "NOA with confirmation" as it requires driver input to confirm green lights and when to go at a stop sign. I think we can safely assume that the next step in the feature will be to release a "no confirmation" version once Tesla collects enough data and feels confident that the feature is reliable.

2) What role will the AP rewrite have? It appears that it will bring some significant improvements to perception. I think there was hints of "reverse summon" also coming at some point. So we could potentially see improvements and maybe "reverse summon" whenever the AP rewrite is done.

3) The other big FSD feature on the website of course of "automatic driving on city streets". This one is pretty broad and encompasses a lot. It almost seems like a "everything else" feature.

But I think we can break it down in some obvious basic features:
- making turns at intersections
- auto lane changes on city streets to follow route
- roundabouts
- responding to road signs such as speed limit signs and "lane ending" signs.

I know there is a lot more that Tesla would need to do to complete FSD. But I could definitely see Tesla releasing "making turns at intersections" and "auto lane changes on city streets to follow route" with confirmation initially.

Also, at some point, Tesla will need to connect summon with AP so that we can engage AP when parked with an address entered and the car would start pulling out and driving. I imagine this will come probably later though after these other features are more mature.

Overall, I think the progress will probably be very iterative and incremental.

Thoughts?

 

[thewishmaster]

I wouldn't break "roundabouts" into its own category; perhaps connecting "understanding right of way" with "understanding the correct flow of traffic for most common situations". After all, a roundabout isn't much more than a series of T junctions connected by a curve with occasionally special rules around the right of way

They'll need the right of way stuff for successfully navigating any intersections not controlled by traffic lights, and they'll need the traffic flow part for any intersections that are moderately more complex than regular 4-way ones (# of lanes changing, avoiding getting stuck in turn lanes, anything that isn't a perfect 90 degree type intersection, more than 2 streets intersecting, and so on).

EDIT: making turns can also become a sub-set of the "understanding traffic flow" problem - if you're making a turn, the car has to understand what portion of the road it should end up in, whether it's as simple as "right turn should end up in the rightmost lane" or as complex as "pick the correct road on a 6-way intersection and figure out which lane to end up in without paying attention to the wildly confusing road markings in the middle of the wider-than-normal intersection"

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I'm from roundabout-heaven (the UK). We have way more roundabouts than normal junctions. I would DEFINITELY put it in its own category, and would dispute that its no different to a junction with multiple exits. The big problem here is the dreaded mini-roundabout.
In busy driving with a mini roundabout, with cars approaching all exits/entrances at once, the theoretical 'give way to the right' cannot be followed without causing a stand-off, so in practice the rules in the UK are as follows:

If your car is super speedy you try to go first
If it looks like the car/driver to your right is about to go, you wait
If you are REALLY in a hurry, you go anyway
If the car on your right has dents, or the driver looks reckless, you wait
If the driver of the car on your right flashes his lights or looks at you with raised eyebrows, you go anyway.
If you have delicate shopping or a pet in the car, and are already moving too fast to slow comfortable you go anyway...
...and so on

I really cant see an easy way for a tesla to autopilot on a mini-roundabout, i can see this being the very last thing that works seemlessly, and be aware that an FSD car is useless in the UK *unless* it can easily, safely and smoothly handle a mini-roundabout.

 

[powertoold]

City NoA will come sooner than I anticipated. I think around October.

 

[diplomat33]

City NoA will come sooner than I anticipated. I think around October.

How do you define "City NOA"?

Thanks

 

[Mo City]

Not holding my breath for "reverse summon" to happen this year.

Scheduled for HW3 upgrade Friday the 1st so I can participate in this stoplight/stop sign experiment (not holding my breath for this either).

 

[powertoold]

How do you define "City NOA"?

Thanks

Simply driver-confirmed city point-to-point driving, navigating through all known standard traffic environments (roundabouts, intersections, turns, pedestrians, etc.)

 

[diplomat33]

Simply driver-confirmed city point-to-point driving, navigating through all known standard traffic environments (roundabouts, intersections, turns, pedestrians, etc.).

So it would make right and left turns with driver confirmation?

 

[powertoold]

So it would make right and left turns with driver confirmation?

Yes, it'll likely use similar UX: "confirm right turn in 600 feet," etc.

This stop light and stop sign feature has changed my mind significantly about Tesla's progress. It's a huge leap IMO. It's no trivial matter, and to have the confidence to release it blows my mind. I don't think left and right turns are that far off...

 

[LowlyOilBurner]

Something I noticed:

Car will stop where the stop sign is, which sometimes is too far back at an intersection, and you would have to creep forward to see if it’s safe to cross or turn. After you stop, a line will appear in the display ahead of the car which is pretty much where you would have to creep up to. Kinda neat.

I’d love to use this new feature more, but I could see a bunch of angry drivers behind me for driving the speed limit.

 

[EinSV]

Enabling turns is the key missing functionality.

As far as automatic lane changes on city streets, Autopilot with the FSD package has had stalk-initiated lane changes on city streets for a long time. Automatic lane change does not seem like a big leap from there (at least to enable the basic functionality).

Then it's mostly dealing with corner cases and the march of 9s, with corner cases broadly defined to include things like roundabouts, curvy, hilly streets, complex intersections, etc.

 

[powertoold]

The cool thing is that Tesla has already achieved a high percentage confidence for light detection (whether it's green yellow or red). I'd estimate it's around 99.5%+.

 

[Alset Srotom]

Left turns on city streets at least 2 years away...

 

[powertoold]

Left turns on city streets at least 2 years away...

Ain't as far off as you think:

 

[EVortex]

I am really curious about the features and differences in the native software for HW3 compared to the emulated version. I’ve been anticipating this since Elon mentioned it a few weeks ago.

 

[willow_hiller]

The cool thing is that Tesla has already achieved a high percentage confidence for light detection (whether it's green yellow or red). I'd estimate it's around 99.5%+.

In Karpathy's recent presentation he showed a screenshot of one of their stop sign unit tests, and it was scoring itself 99.51%, I believe. Although it could have just been an illustration and not a real value.

 

[diplomat33]

Ain't as far off as you think:

It is hard to see but I am pretty sure that AP is just following dashed lane lines in that video. So it is just lane keeping. AP cannot make turns where there are no lane lines.

 

[willow_hiller]

2) What role will the AP rewrite have? It appears that it will bring some significant improvements to perception. I think there was hints of "reverse summon" also coming at some point. So we could potentially see improvements and maybe "reverse summon" whenever the AP rewrite is done.

I was actually a little surprised Tesla released this feature without the rewrite. To my mind the rewrite and particularly the birdseye view estimation of intersections is what will enable the Traffic control feature to more confidently proceed through intersections. I've seen several videos where the vehicle cannot proceed by itself after a red light because it doesn't understand enough about the intersection. Hopefully the rewrite will fix that, and be the launching off point for right and left turns through intersections.

 

[powertoold]

It is hard to see but I am pretty sure that AP is just following dashed lane lines in that video. So it is just lane keeping. AP cannot make turns where there are no lane lines.

I understand. I was just pointing to how “easy” it would be for Tesla to enable right and left turns, especially for green lights.

As for following lane lines, I don’t see any for that left turn.

 

[john5520]

You summed it up nicely. I'm most excited about the rewrite, as it would be key to overall reliability and timeliness of feature additions if what was promised holds true. So far, despite the stumbles, I like what I see.