General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Ulmo]

Do the vast majority of employees that want the $35k car have significantly more than $3750 in Federal tax liability? Or would half the credit be sufficient? My guess is most of these folks are earning closer to entry level Tesla wage of $17/hr than $100M/year.

If JB wants the $35k car is it ok if he pays an extra $3750 in Federal tax?

I know; those people getting $100,000,000/year really greatly benefit from filling out their driveway by paying $3,750 less than they would have to if they were a factory worker, assuming they owned a prior Tesla car and were scheduled earlier. Those pretty cobble stone covers sure are nice with the you-can-drive-it feature installed. Those who are at $100M/year and scheduled to receive a Model 3 later and don't get that $3,750 benefit will probably deduct that additional taxation from their landscaping budget and be OK. So, yes, to your second question.

For lower paid people, if they have no deductions for sending money to Mexico or having a family in US, i.e., single people without children who are multigenerational US citizens, then they are more likely to benefit from a $7,500 reduction in taxes than those who have many more deductions, such as a larger family of their own, or more overseas "dependents" they can send money to and thus deduct more "dependents" in their standard deductions. The only people that extra $3,750 lack of tax reduction would hurt are basically lowish income single (childless dependentless) long-term citizens whose income nevertheless exceeds federal taxes of $3,750 per year. You could ask for a copy of the taxes from the employee for the relevent tax period (the period in which the car tax benefit is calculated), and give them a one time deduction in the price of the Model 3 if they are in that boat, retroactively on tax filing day. My guess is that there aren't a lot of them. It would also alleviate power arbitrage Washington DC lobbiests place between different factory workers (pitting coworkers against each other unnecessarily), and make a more peaceful and fair factory worker environment inside.

 

[Ulmo]

That seems to happen every time the stock goes down. Elon's got (quite) a few fair-weather friends here.

Yes, indeed.

One big danger (which I claim is partially unavoidable and partially self-caused) is Tesla losing Elon. I'm glad they're putting forth genuine efforts to avoid that danger. However, I think they kind of half-assed it (or maybe 4/5ths). As a result of all that, I can see they threw up the Elon re-up plan during a downturn as a way to deter negativity, which is a good idea in itself, but at the same time, it also caused me to pick apart that plan at the same time, which offered a bit of questioning to happen during a downturn, laced ever so slightly with the unavoidable dour tone I had when I saw my entire retirement and potential for long healthy life "not exist" a few months later according to financial numbers.

 

[Intl Professor]

Too many people trade on emotions instead of logic.

Unfortunately, all of us suffer in our daily lives such conflict in all decisions not just trading. Many here think, or express the emotion as do I, that the market is illogical or unreasonable. Logic, by itself, can be quite sterile as the character Dr. Spock in the TV series shows in conflict though he is occasionally saved by his human heritage. Incidentally, during the Nuclear Freeze campaign I had dinner with Leonard Nimoy who barely said a thing and didn't engage my wife and I or others. In his defense, Tom Lehrer was also there. Even though he was not aggressive in conversation, Tom dominated our table as we peppered him with questions. Nimoy did not engage in the dialogue.

How do we correct this human disability? There is meaning only in interaction. That is why great philosophers recommend dialogue, as with Socrates, or simple conversations in the case of Buddha, or mixing of thought and reality in Hegel's three laws of the dialectic.

Marx was wrong in his depiction of Hegel. The latter was attempting to unite the conflict in philosophy between realists and idealists as you intimate above.

 

[Lessmog]

Unfortunately, all of us suffer in our daily lives such conflict in all decisions not just trading. Many here think, or express the emotion as do I, that the market is illogical or unreasonable. Logic, by itself, can be quite sterile as the character Dr. Spock in the TV series shows in conflict though he is occasionally saved by his human heritage. Incidentally, during the Nuclear Freeze campaign I had dinner with Leonard Nimoy who barely said a thing and didn't engage my wife and I or others. In his defense, Tom Lehrer was also there. Even though he was not aggressive in conversation, Tom dominated our table as we peppered him with questions. Nimoy did not engage in the dialogue.

How do we correct this human disability? There is meaning only in interaction. That is why great philosophers recommend dialogue, as with Socrates, or simple conversations in the case of Buddha, or mixing of thought and reality in Hegel's three laws of the dialectic.

Marx was wrong in his depiction of Hegel. The latter was attempting to unite the conflict in philosophy between realists and idealists as you intimate above.

Not having been raised in the US and having missed most of those TV series, I wonder if you may be conflating the space hero and the author of parenting literature? Their ears are dissimilar.


EDIT, for more on-topic, SpaceX tweets:
Team at Vandenberg is taking additional time to perform final checkouts of upgraded fairing. Payload and vehicle remain healthy. Due to mission requirements, now targeting February 21 launch of PAZ.

 

[dc_h]

I would hope someone purchasing a 50K car would do at least a little homework beforehand.

I just heard a third hand story from my wife. Friend of neighbor took a weekend test drive and went from Naperville (30 Miles west of Chicago) to Springfield. Should be a one stop trip, at most. He claimed the car died twice en route and needed roadside assistance. Our town is generally well educated upper decile. Obviously didn’t charge before trip and map charging route correctly. That ignorance will be retold many times as Tesla shortcoming.

 

[Dennisj00]

As one of the comedians say ‘you can’t fix stupid’. There’s enough info on the console that a 6 year old can figure out the remaining range and when / where you could / should charge.

Occasionally you see an ICE driver walking with a gas can in his hand.

 

[Lessmog]

I just heard a third hand story from my wife. Friend of neighbor took a weekend test drive and went from Naperville (30 Miles west of Chicago) to Springfield. Should be a one stop trip, at most. He claimed the car died twice en route and needed roadside assistance. Our town is generally well educated upper decile. Obviously didn’t charge before trip and map charging route correctly. That ignorance will be retold many times as Tesla shortcoming.

Was it John Broder? I hear he's been out of work for a few years after inventing the eponymous verb "to Broder" for NYT five years ago. (Actually the story that made me invest in TSLA.)

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Options and margins make the dips painful.

Then why do people use them?

TSLA has so much natural volatility, no extra leverage is needed. There’s frequently a spread of 3% or more between the high of the day & the low of the day. Capture just 1/2 of this (because market timing is hard), and you can achieve daily gains of 1.5%. Compound that over 250 trading days & that’s a phenomenal annual return.

All without margin calls or time pressure.

 

[TNEVol]

OT picked up 53xx M3 on valentines day for wife in Nashville. Took it to be wrapped and will get it back Sunday. We love it so far.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Then why do people use them?

TSLA has so much natural volatility, no extra leverage is needed. There’s frequently a spread of 3% or more between the high of the day & the low of the day. Capture just 1/2 of this (because market timing is hard), and you can achieve daily gains of 1.5%. Compound that over 250 trading days & that’s a phenomenal annual return.

All without margin calls or time pressure.

Don’t disagree, but one has to consider many issues. Some like to play options, because each option is a multiple of 100 shares. This builds a natural exponential (potential) leverage for the stock. So buying an option allows a gamble of potentially an exponential gain for the same amount of money. Losses are limited by the option themselves.

Margin allows one to increased total shares without putting up the total capital. So if the stock shoots the moon, you made substantially more money (since you put up less capital in the first place than buying straight up stock). Downside risk is higher, since 1) you’re paying interest charges to maintain your margined shares, and 2) you can be subject to margin calls and/or sales of any other equities you main own to cover your margin requirement. Theoretically you could lose your house/other assets with margin (read the disclosure before deciding to use or not).

However, margin has other advantages that one could take advantage of... “day trading” if one is inclined. Just don’t do that too often or else you become labeled as a “pattern day trader” and get stuck by the SEC with minimum holding requirements.

Ultimately it’s a question of one’s risk tolerance and underlying assets/capital capabilities. If you’ve got a lot of capital, straight up stock helps minimize risk, and allows one to participate with gains. If one is capital constrained, willing to gamble more (and one’s other life’s needs are less pressing—i.e. single and young), then options and margins become more attractive. That is obviously a generality, because there are other issues that arise with options/margins vs. shares.

 

[Mike Smith]

This is GREAT news for utility scale Powerpacks. A ruling like this one is what has been holding back a lot of utilities from caring about battery storage. Now they will have to care or get their lunch eaten like we have seen in Australia. The only negative is it will take awhile to implement...

"Today’s final rule takes effect 90 days after publication in the Federal Register. Compliance filings by the RTOs and ISOs are due 270 days after the effective date, with an additional 365 days to implement the tariff revisions."

FERC lifts barriers to electric storage's participation in organized markets
https://www.ferc.gov/media/news-releases/2018/2018-1/02-15-18-E-1.pdf

Big batteries are long term capital projects with lead times, so the implementation date for the rule change shouldn't matter much. This completely changes the economics and will unleash huge demand for batteries starting now. I hope Tesla can meet the demand it's about to see.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla Daily on Twitter

 

[Off Shore]

long term capital projects with lead times of 100 days or fewer,

FTFY

 

[Intl Professor]

Not having been raised in the US and having missed most of those TV series, I wonder if you may be conflating the space hero and the author of parenting literature? Their ears are dissimilar.


EDIT, for more on-topic, SpaceX tweets:
Team at Vandenberg is taking additional time to perform final checkouts of upgraded fairing. Payload and vehicle remain healthy. Due to mission requirements, now targeting February 21 launch of PAZ.

Nimoy's ears were like Spock, M.D. I did debate or appear on a panel once with the M.D. who spoke on our campus. But this is OT.

 

[Dennisj00]

After watching the first episode of Netflix ‘Dirty Money’ I don’t understand how any American can drive a VW (or the other acc used ) and how the government of Germany doesn’t shut them down.

 

[Mike Smith]

Nova Scotia Power testing Tesla batteries in electrical system

 

[SPadival]

After watching the first episode of Netflix ‘Dirty Money’ I don’t understand how any American can drive a VW (or the other acc used ) and how the government of Germany doesn’t shut them down.

It also features Bertel Schmitt, one of the original TSLA trolls and former Volkswagen PR guy. So it is possible that the episode is a little watered down.

 

[22522]

I voted for the board recommendation. A few factors:

Recent options for officers.
Elon and Ira reputation.

 

[Words of HABIT]

After watching the first episode of Netflix ‘Dirty Money’ I don’t understand how any American can drive a VW (or the other acc used ) and how the government of Germany doesn’t shut them down.

Simple. Short term self preservation.
And it is not just VW. NOx emissions come from ALL diesel vehicles.
After watching the first episode of Netflix "Dirty Money" I don't understand how any person anywhere can drive a diesel vehicle.
A few short years from now, IMHO most people will feel the same way with ALL ICE vehicles, once they realize there is a much more environmentally friendly alternative. We have had our head in the sand for too long.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Simple. Short term self preservation.
And it is not just VW. NOx emissions come from ALL diesel vehicles.
After watching the first episode of Netflix "Dirty Money" I don't understand how any person anywhere can drive a diesel vehicle.
A few short years from now, IMHO most people will feel the same way with ALL ICE vehicles, once they realize there is a much more environmentally friendly alternative. We have had our head in the sand for too long.

This is another reason to fight for better alternatives to diesel electricity generators. Unfortunately many Tesla are powered with those too. Tesla Solar and Energy need to ramp up asap. I wish Elon spent some time on that too. He could speak up way more about that.