General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Waiting4M3]

The current rate of VIN assignments is a direct result of the huge batch of invites Feb 22nd.
The last big invite batch was Feb 28th. It's the biggest counterpoint against the clearly larger number of VIN assignments.

We don't really know the invite size, or % of invited customers choosing to take 1st production model. I hypothesize that the % placing orders in the 2/22 non-owner invites is higher, maybe even much higher than the % of previous batch of invites to existing owners, since this is the 1st chance for new people to get into a Tesla, I think the excitement level is much higher for non-owners. If this is what happened, maybe Tesla underestimated how many of the 2/22 invites ended up ordering, and now they have more orders than what they expected, so they're not in a hurry to send out next batch of invitations.

Also VIN assignment should directly scale with how many cars are coming off of production line. Why guess by invites * order%, when VIN assignment itself is available?

Another curious trend is the widening of the band from which VINs are sourced. This may simply be the effect of delivering all over the country. But VIN assignment seems to happen before transport and not after transport. Another reason could be the effects of many model 3 (parts) needing rework/remanufacturing (I don't care enough to parse the terms here).

We hypothesized that VINs of the cars in the production line are randomized, so the spread in VIN assignment should represent the spread of VINs in the production line. The current spread is ~3.5K, if I assume cars takes 2 week to go through the production line, that equates to 1700/wk.

Edit, maybe I have rose colored glasses on, or maybe 1500+/wk is staring you in the face but you just don't want to see it

 

[Intl Professor]

We might see us saying this one day about today...

As I say, these are always the good old days.

 

[Dwdnjck]

San Diego delivery center opened today. It had lots of cars to deliver, model 3’s being detailed in a seven station detail line and will have 16 separate delivery bays, capable 200 cars per day. My car was going through the line. It’s vin is 111xx. This is getting serious.

 

[JRP3]

Found a LOT of Model 3's in a Tesla lot - Pictures inside

 

[EinSV]

Model 3 VIN 12,2xx reported on tesla.com. Configured 2/28 anyone receive VIN? | Tesla

Bloomberg's chart also showed a VIN of ~11,9xx this morning so it looks like we are already into the VIN batch registered on March 2nd (11,349-12,436).

Seems promising -- time for a new batch of VINs (and invites).

 

[Compton]

I can't explain why I bothered to comment, forgive me. I read all kinds of sources on topics that interest me. I watch a little FOX news for the same reason. To understand other perspectives. I apologize for disturbing the vibe here, it's all good, I forgot Elon said 20% gross margins. I got my $1,000 back so I probably no longer have standing to comment. I will however keep reading here, (and reddit,SA etc.) to see if I can learn something and am duly chastened. You guys don't trace IP addresses on dissenting voices do you?

peace

You somehow decided not to quote the rest of my post. But don't worry dear Mr Accountant, I'll be happy to bring it up later myself for the enlightenment of other readers. You are a prime example of someone who is masquerading as a constructive TMC member while having actively tried to undermine it from the beginning.

 

[sundaymorning]

Found a LOT of Model 3's in a Tesla lot - Pictures inside

Monday is going to be interesting. Maybe this will be enough to give us a move upwards before numbers are released. I’m going to have to reaccess and see what the market does on Monday, might be time to put the rest of my money back in and perhaps shed off some weight before or after numbers are released. Let’s see what the market doesn Monday.

Edit: Judging from the pictures I see much more model S and X than Model 3s.

 

[mrdoubleb]

All deliveries with the new MCU are on hold due to a big. Hopefully they nip this in the butt before it ruins the end of quarter push.

Model S Delivery Update

 

[Drumheller]

All deliveries with the new MCU are on hold due to a big. Hopefully they nip this in the butt before it ruins the end of quarter push.

Model S Delivery Update

I wonder if I have the new MCU. The touchscreen was recently replaced in my 2013 Model S. Since then, it has gone black several times and I had difficulty getting it to reboot and come back. Happened again earlier today.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I wonder if I have the new MCU. The touchscreen was recently replaced in my 2013 Model S. Since then, it has gone black several times and I had difficulty getting it to reboot and come back. Happened again earlier today.

Unfortunately it's an issue with the new HW. Several posts and dedicated thread now. This post tells it all:

I took delivery today and they said there was an issue that would take an hour or two to fix. When I came back, the store manager said that the issue is with the new MCU2 communicates with the IC. She explained that the IC is no longer linked with the MCU in MCU2 builds, and this has been causing issues. She said that during the hour wait they were required to patch in a “very senior engineer” into my car to get it satisfactory (aka, good enough) for delivery. Finally, she said that there may be some bugs but they are working a fix.

Credit goes to @Arrowpine

 

[sundaymorning]

Unfortunately it's an issue with the new HW. Several posts and dedicated thread now. This post tells it all:

I took delivery today and they said there was an issue that would take an hour or two to fix. When I came back, the store manager said that the issue is with the new MCU2 communicates with the IC. She explained that the IC is no longer linked with the MCU in MCU2 builds, and this has been causing issues. She said that during the hour wait they were required to patch in a “very senior engineer” into my car to get it satisfactory (aka, good enough) for delivery. Finally, she said that there may be some bugs but they are working a fix.

Credit goes to @Arrowpine

Hopefully they straighten out those bugs soon, this will put a dent into end of quarter push should it drag on longer.

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla files permit to open restaurant in Santa Monica

 

[schonelucht]

Seriously. They could liquidate those assets and be $3B better off than they were 2 years. That’s a great thing, no matter how you try to spin it.

No they can’t. In the event of liquidation some of these assets will only be worth pennies on the dollar. Some will sell at a deep discount.

 

[RobStark]

No they can’t. In the event of liquidation some of these assets will only be worth pennies on the dollar. Some will sell at a deep discount.

This happens in a typical liquidation.

I can't imagine Apple,Google, and/ or a Chinese EV companies not bidding up these assets.

In fact I can't imagine Apple, Google or Tencent not buying Tesla at $100 a share.

Geely's Li Shufu was willing to buy FCA for $22B for crying out loud.

During the Great Recession automotive assets were selling pennies on the dollar at auction because the entire US auto industry was collapsing and even Daimler Benz was teetering.

 

[Compton]

This happens in a typical liquidation.

I can't imagine Apple,Google, and/ or a Chinese EV companies not bidding up these assets.

In fact I can't imagine Apple, Google or Tencent not buying Tesla at $100 a share.

Geely's Li Shufu was willing to buy FCA for $22B for crying out loud.

During the Great Recession automotive assets were selling pennies on the dollar at auction because the entire US auto industry was collapsing and even Daimler Benz was teetering.

For reference, Intel acquired Mobileye for 15 billion $. At 100 $/share Tesla would be valued at ~16 billion. And they have a bit more than Autopilot on the table. The entire picture is of course more complex due to the liabilities but the point is that Tesla has highly valuable intellectual assets in addition to the material assets.

 

[bdy0627]

Hopefully they straighten out those bugs soon, this will put a dent into end of quarter push should it drag on longer.

This may turn out to be a catalyst for bears tomorrow to push the stock down further. Expect negative articles about this soon.

 

[ChrisA]

An FT article this morning is a good example of how views move from impossible to inevitable without ever stopping at probable.

The conventional view now is that EVs are the future, but the incumbent auto makers are in the poll position to take advantage of the change. Some of the arguments have merit and are worth considering. In general, I think they overstate incumbent advantages to harness electrification toward their ends and understate Tesla's lead. Of course, Tesla still needs to profitably manufacture the 3 at scale to prove out the advantages of its position. We'll see, but I think it is well positioned to do so and we will know within the next year. Also, traditional automakers will make lots of EVs and will follow the transition -- I'm just not convinced they are in the poll position.

One odd omission from the article. There is not a single mention of fast charging networks for distance travel. I think there is this assumption on the conventional side that a fast charge network similar to Tesla's Super Chargers can be easily rolled out by the big auto makers. But Tesla's Super Chargers require tight integration with its batteries and the software that manages those batteries on their cars. Has anyone else seen indications that the major auto companies have figured this out? True fast charging networks still seem to be ominously lacking for the major auto cos, no? I'm sure Volkswagen is not investing 25 billion euros without a plan on this. But what's their plan for supercharging? Do they have one or are they just discounting the importance of distance travel?

curious as to others views on this.


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[sdtslafan]

For those of you who are tech savvy, what is the likelihood the MCU issue can be resolved with a firmware update versus requiring a hardware fix? Thx

 

[Waiting4M3]

For those of you who are tech savvy, what is the likelihood the MCU issue can be resolved with a firmware update versus requiring a hardware fix? Thx

100%

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

No they can’t. In the event of liquidation some of these assets will only be worth pennies on the dollar. Some will sell at a deep discount.

Yes, they can. You’re confusing liquidating these assets with liquidating the company. If they’re liquidating the company, or any other form of distressed sale, then— yes— they’ll sell for pennies on the dollar. But that would be because it’s a distress sale, not because of the nature of the assets. If the company liquidates these assets while the company is viable, these assets would sell for what they are worth.

These assets aren’t any less valuable than the physical assets of any other company. If anything, because of the ongoing disruption of the transportation industry, they are more valuable.