General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Zhelko Dimic]

I live in Toronto, Canada, reserved first day, was probably somewhere between 50-100 in the line, have MS60, and I just got invite to configure my model 3, 4-8 weeks delivery. Pleasantly surprised. I figure they'll send lots of cars to Canada to delay tax cutbacks in US.
Also, AWD shows for me as a mid 2018 delivery...
I think I may get M3 if I can find buyer for 14 months old MS60 for $CAD65K, i.e. what it would cost me to get M3 long range with premium package and some colour, prob no-autopilot (though awesome, it's too expensive for the way I use the car)

 

[Reciprocity]

Unless... the ramp is going well & Tesla has a bunch of cars they’d like to deliver by the end of the month. One of many signs the ramp is (finally) going well. Far from a sure thing, but maybe.

Yeah except that invites today wont get delivered this quarter so it doesn't make sense to ONLY invite West coast. As I noted, we probably did not have enough data points yet and it appears that there were also new reports from NC, which is east coast. I wasnt trying to throw cold water on the ramp, it just didn't make sense based on how they have done this in the past. It's always farthest early in the quarter and closest late in the quarter. But invites today is to late to take delivery this quarter. Even in California. I would agree that more invites nationwide and Canada points to an improved ramp. Mostly because the choices are so limited, they need to widen the net. In general, I wonder what this means for the dual motor. If anything.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The reason for the VIN chart not moving is because the VINS are assigned from a larger spread. Some of the new higher VINs we see are balanced by continued fill ins from lower VINs. Also, each point is just as influencial on the graph. Since it only has four degrees of freedom, that means many more points are needed to overcome inertia from the initial slow allocations.

Tesla confirmed they will start inviting Canadians this week. Let's hope a bigger bunch of them.

You sound like you want to revise your 7,000 revised to 8,000 estimate again?

 

[Curt Renz]

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I live in Toronto, Canada, reserved first day, was probably somewhere between 50-100 in the line, have MS60, and I just got invite to configure my model 3, 4-8 weeks delivery. Pleasantly surprised. I figure they'll send lots of cars to Canada to delay tax cutbacks in US.
Also, AWD shows for me as a mid 2018 delivery...
I think I may get M3 if I can find buyer for 14 months old MS60 for $CAD65K, i.e. what it would cost me to get M3 long range with premium package and some colour, prob no-autopilot (though awesome, it's too expensive for the way I use the car)

It seems that lots of Model 3 invites continue to go out across the US, so I doubt Tesla is looking to delay 200,000th delivery to July.

 

[Curt Renz]

Well Elon can now send people to Mars. An astronomy professor from his native South Africa discovered Mars this week, so it must really exist.

BGR - today: Astronomer discovers incredible never-before-seen object… which turns out to just be Mars

 

[ValueAnalyst]

General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Great work by @Waiting4M3 today pulling together and analyzing recent surge in invites, which I think may change some minds here about Tesla pushing back 200,000th delivery to July.

200,000th US Delivery

 

[hacer]

That's showing the total produced, not the rate of production.

Rate of production (differentiation of that curve) will not be exponential.

Um, I guess you don't know that the derivative of an exponential is ... an exponential:
d(exp(x))/dx = exp(x)

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

It seems that lots of Model 3 invites continue to go out across the US, so I doubt Tesla is looking to delay 200,000th delivery to July.

I thought they would delay too, but I just got my chance to configure today!!! I was a pre-reveal (reserved at 4pm) Burbank, CA non-owner. So guesstimating that I was ~100k in the reservation queue. configurator estimated ~3-6 weeks for delivery, which would be no where near Q3.

Either everyone else are waiting for AWD, or they've switched gears again and decided to hit 200k in Q2.

OR, they have insider knowledge that the EV credit will be extended?

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Um, I guess you don't know that the derivative of an exponential is ... an exponential:
d(exp(x))/dx = exp(x)

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Some of the California folks are also reporting "instant VINs" when they configure so Tesla may be trying to top up EOQ deliveries -- we'll see.

7 days from InstaVin to delivery? Do they have the sales/delivery infrastructure to pull this off even if production ramps? Sounds too good to be true. Do the InstaVinners share delivery estimates?

 

[schonelucht]

Just trying to get a handle on potential numbers for this quarter. One of the uncertainties is the change in accounting rules for sales with a a resale value guarantee. Their annual reports seems to say these will now be recognized as full sales and not go through lease accounting anymore. Is this correct? Any idea how many cars would be under this regime? I have it pegged at 5% as a total guess.

For now I have (Assuming 24 000 S/X and 8000 Model 3 (will update when the real numbers get here)

Automotive revenue = $2,506M (sales) + $299M (lease)
Energy revenue = $403M (20% growth + $45M SA)
Services revenue = $288M (same as last quarter)

Automotive cost = $2,146M (sales) + $195M (lease)
Energy cost = $354M (20% growth, 10% better margins + $50M SA)
Services cost = $339M (10% efficiency gain from last quarter)

Gross profit = $461M
R&D = $354M (same as last quarter)
SG&A = $711M (straight line growth Q3-Q4-Q1)
Operational loss = $604M

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Just trying to get a handle on potential numbers for this quarter. One of the uncertainties is the change in accounting rules for sales with a a resale value guarantee. Their annual reports seems to say these will now be recognized as full sales and not go through lease accounting anymore. Is this correct? Any idea how many cars would be under this regime? I have it pegged at 5% as a total guess.

For now I have (Assuming 24 000 S/X and 8000 Model 3 (will update when the real numbers get here)

Automotive revenue = $2,506M (sales) + $299M (lease)
Energy revenue = $403M (20% growth + $45M SA)
Services revenue = $288M (same as last quarter)

Automotive cost = $2,146M (sales) + $195M (lease)
Energy cost = $354M (20% growth, 10% better margins + $50M SA)
Services cost = $339M (10% efficiency gain from last quarter)

Gross profit = $461M
R&D = $354M (same as last quarter)
SG&A = $711M (straight line growth Q3-Q4-Q1)
Operational loss = $604M

Looking froward to @luvb2b ’s thread, but probably a discussion after deliveries report.

I generally agree with your estimates. Lease % may be higher. I'm slightly more conservative (higher) on OpEx. Services revenue will grow as used vehicle business grows with lease returns and Model 3 trade-ins.

Not sure about lease accounting changes, but (1) should be positive for Tesla so I’m ignoring it for conservatism purposes and (2) non-cash issue so probably already priced in the stock price via non-cash adjustments in previous quarters.

 

[Intl Professor]

Good morning, sunshines.

Somewhat OT, and from SA, but it's always interesting to see what the competition is up to.

Baidu receives first open-road test licenses for self-driving cars - Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU) | Seeking Alpha

The last paragraph is most interesting.

"Vehicles that apply for the license go through 5,000 km of closed-course training as well as capability evaluations, and safety drivers have to undergo 50 hours of training in order to take control of the vehicle in case of emergency."

 

[EinSV]

7 days from InstaVin to delivery? Do they have the sales/delivery infrastructure to pull this off even if production ramps? Sounds too good to be true. Do the InstaVinners share delivery estimates?

At least one person invited to configure yesterday has already been told to expect delivery before the end of the month (9 days from 3/22-3/31). The Official ‘Invite & Delivery status’ thread! (post 3057)

At the time of my earlier post we had only CA and Canadian invites. Obviously the big story yesterday is the large number of invites seeming to confirm what we have seen with rising VIN assignment numbers. The last piece of the puzzle is to see deliveries increasing which I think will happen between now and the end of the month — with at least a few of these (probably a small number) coming from the invites yesterday and the vast majority already in the pipeline.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

At least one person invited to configure yesterday has already been told to expect delivery before the end of the month (9 days from 3/22-3/31). The Official ‘Invite & Delivery status’ thread! (post 3057)

At the time of my earlier post we had only CA and Canadian invites. Obviously the big story yesterday is the large number of invites seeming to confirm what we have seen with rising VIN assignment numbers. The last piece of the puzzle is to see deliveries increasing which I think will happen between now and the end of the month — with at least a few of these (probably a small number) coming from the invites yesterday and the vast majority already in the pipeline.

Thanks. I'm cautiously optimistic. Are you planning on adjusting your S/X/3 deliveries estimate?

 

[K_Dizzle]

Do you guys think the shorts will start to cover today or will they hold out untill the delivery numbers are out. Besides the regular short crowd I’ve noticed a ton of newbies going short on Tesla over the last month, especially in Reddit. All thanks to the smear campaign of course. I think they will stick to the delusion that TSLAQ will actually happen causing them more pain than they’re ready for.

 

[elasalle]

It seems that lots of Model 3 invites continue to go out across the US, so I doubt Tesla is looking to delay 200,000th delivery to July.

Why not?
With recent delays for US S/X availability along with M3's going to CA, it looks like the don't want to hit 2K US sales in 2Q.
If CAnada gets saturated for M3, they could always open up other areas in Europe, Asia which have LHD as in US.

If 2Q exit goal is 5K/week, for 3Q we have roughly 5*13 = 65K M3's which can then go all into US and get Fed credits .. One of comments EM had made was to try to get credits for 1st day reservation holders.

For US M3 waiters, the wait might be a bit longer as our brethen get theirs across the border/seas

 

[EinSV]

Thanks. I'm cautiously optimistic. Are you planning on adjusting your S/X/3 deliveries estimate?

Not sure but can take a look.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Do you guys think the shorts will start to cover today or will they hold out untill the delivery numbers are out. Besides the regular short crowd I’ve noticed a ton of newbies going short on Tesla over the last month, especially in Reddit. All thanks to the smear campaign of course. I think they will stick to the delusion that TSLAQ will actually happen causing them more pain than they’re ready for.

Not sure if there's anyway to know the answer to your Q... we'll just have to wait and see, but position for endless resilience by bears/shorts. They are determined, even if completely wrong, so they will have to be squeezed. I don't think they will "choose" to start to cover based on any sort of logic or factual observations.

Why not?
With recent delays for US S/X availability along with M3's going to CA, it looks like the don't want to hit 2K US sales in 2Q.
If CA gets saturated for M3, they could always open up other areas in Europe, Asia which have LHD as in US.

If 2Q exit goal is 5K/week, for 3Q we have roughly 5*13 = 65K M3's which can then go all into US and get Fed credits .. One of comments EM had made was to try to get credits for 1st day reservation holders.

For US M3 waiters, the wait might be a bit longer as our brethen get theirs across the border/seas

My understanding is that Model 3 production has ramped to the point (2,000+ per week) that it'd take a tremendous effort on Tesla's part, and I think Tesla will choose to apply that level of effort into simply accelerating production rate to 5,000 by May/June and beyond in 3Q18, which would ensure all U.S. first day reservations who want LR + PUP and LR + AWD get the full credit. I'm not sure about SR, which seems to be more of an early 2019 story, but I think it'd be fair for LR buyers to get the full credit and SR to get half, and if SR buyers really want the full, they can go for a 75D Model S in 2Q/3Q18. I think that's a fair outcome. I don't think Tesla will bend out of shape to get $7,500 to people who only want to pay $35,000 for Model 3.