And now SC and FL, as well. I'll stop clogging this thread now that it's clear we got invites crossing both Canada and the USA today.
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tsunamiofhurt
Member
I’m starting to feel quite optimistic about EOQ report. There are a few signs, many of which have been discussed here, that taken together give me some confidence:
- Frequency/size of VIN registrations in March
- VIN assignment/delivery pace increasing ~2x over February
- At least a few 12xxx VIN assignments in the last couple days (from March 2/10 batches)
- Tone of Consumer Edge report was positive after meeting with executive management
- New invite batch today and opening up of configurator to Canadians (key missing piece until today). I'm very curious to see what the final tally is once everyone submits info to Tracker.
Mike Smith
Active Member
This is why Musk specifically said the previous administration couldn't get a vehicles import / factory ownership deal done with China. Now Trump has extra incentive to get a deal for Tesla - so he'll be able to claim he achieved what Obama couldn't, right before the midterms. Elon you genius you
Not a huge fan of the Bloomberg tracker. For example, What is with the VINS reported between 1 and ~2000 for March? We really think they just came off the line? I bet they haven't been anywhere near a production line in months. It is one thing having QC issues gumming up the line, another thing if cars are sat somewhere waiting for a single widget fix. Bloomberg tracker won't be able to make that distinction though, just plugs it into the March production rate. I don't even see similar low VINS on Troys tracker (although it suffers from some of this). Bears hitting up the Bloomberg tracker, perhaps?
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Waiting4M3
Active Member
Today's invite appears massive. The non-owner config invites thread size grew by 20%, almost 50 posts in the last 3 hours or so starting from Canada invite report
Waiting4M3
Active Member
yeah, they're still getting their car before I do, so not getting sympathies from me, lucky bastards!
RobStark
Well-Known Member
SteveG3 said: ↑
Trump’s trade announcement, live now, first example where he thinks trade is unfair with China- autos (repeats numbers Elon tweeted, 25% vs 2.5%). Says negotiations are ongoing with Chinese (this was a general statement, not auto specific).
Currently, of course, Chinese auto imports are nil to the US.
I see, perhaps 0.5% of this year’s US auto sales will be vehicles manufactured in China.
fwiw, what I had in mind were Chinese brand vehicles. That is where I see a potentially very large hole being open for Chinese branded cars which US consumers have barely bought (would make that 0.5% of US sales look big). The hole results from incumbent ICE makers reluctance to produce EVs.
___________________________________________________________________________
Trying to minimize the impact of China auto manufacturing on US market.
Trump thinks auto trade between US and China is unfair. But this is not true?
In reality 25% tariff on US auto imports and ownership restrictions on US factories in China to 50% is perfectly fair? Requiring trade secret transfer to Chinese JV partners is fair without any restrictions on Chinese companies in the US and a 2.5% tariff on imported Chinese vehicles?
I don't know if this has been discussed already but i just read this on the bloomberg tesla tracker page.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Unless... the ramp is going well & Tesla has a bunch of cars they’d like to deliver by the end of the month. One of many signs the ramp is (finally) going well. Far from a sure thing, but maybe.
Also this:
2:38:48 pm
Tom Randall Senior Reporter tsrandall
Signs of a Surge in Production
We’ve now had three VINs reported to Bloomberg that break the 12,000 level. Combine that with the recent batch of more than 2,000 VINs that Tesla registered with NHTSA and there are real signs of a possible ramp in production. It could take a few more weeks of confirming data for our model to respond.
I think the model is lagging and they themselves admit it ..
BTW, I will confirm in a few days ..1st week of April and without the model
When did I say any of that was fair? I would be very happy to see the 25% brought down dramatically and the JV rule drastically changed or eliminated.
What I was getting at with this comment,
“Currently, of course, Chinese auto imports are nil to the US.”
was that while it was good to hear Trump has autos in mind (yes, I really am glad to hear this), currently there is little at stake for the Chinese in terms of export business of vehicles to the US. In time, they may well see a lot at stake, but with so little at stake now, rather than see Tesla freed from the 25% tariff, the Chinese are likely not to budge, and so something like the US imposing a mirror tax on autos made in China seems like where this would go. I guess the negotiations may well be more about a big package deal, so maybe Tesla will get some relief with the Trump admin using major Chinese exports as leverage for opening up US export of autos (though he focused on the “mirror tariff” idea in today’s announcement). I just was alluding to the fact that there are no Chinese automakers flipping out that their key US sales might get crushed this year when Trump signs into law a new auto tariff.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
This has been going on for decades and not just with China.
Asking nicely doesn't help.
China does have a nearly $300B trade in goods surplus with the US.
Threatening to eliminate that $300B trade in good surplus with US with a big fat tariff can very well get equitable rules on auto trade.
The kinds of goods traded between countries is not always exactly the same. In fact it is most beneficial is when they are not.
Trade wars damage everyone. The US acting rationally like a good global citizen when it comes to trade for the most part while most of the rest of the world's large countries act like mercantilist and wage a low intensity trade war against the US over decades that helps US consumers for the most part but damages US workers is not sustainable long term.
Sometimes a brushback pitch is required.
K_Dizzle
Member
Whatever ends up happening it will be reasonable and way less extreme than what Trump initially proposes. He used the same negotiation tacktic with Canada, proposing insane tarrifs on everything. At the end of the day not much has changed and things settled down.
Rob, I guess my original post was not very clear, sorry for any confusion.
fwiw, would it be too much to ask for, "oh, I misunderstood what you were saying and have been countering a point of view you don't have."
by, the way, I am not advocating for asking nicely for nice behavior from other nations in regard to trade.
You have a tremendous amount of background on many things, apparently including international trade. I was just trying to make a very limited point within the scope of what I have reasonable confidence of my knowledge (in 2018, US has more at stake in getting into the Chinese auto market today than the Chinese do getting into the US market today).
Adding my tally to Canadian owners that received their M3 invitation to configure.
Had reserved on April 9th 2017.
Had reserved on April 9th 2017.
4-8 weeks from configuration for the long-range PUP RWD currently available in the US.
Mid-2018 for AWD. I expect / hope this means "any time now" since IMHO a large part of Canadian M3 purchasers will want AWD.
Early 2019 for "base" version.
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