General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[K_Dizzle]

Elon and Tesla’s integrity will matter with consumers- who will treat you well re cost of charging your EV away from home?

Charging to cost similar to gas, will be run at a profit by VW’s Porsche,

Porsche says ‘Tesla’s Superchargers are not sustainable’, they will charge more for their own charging network

Since I plan on doing 95% of my charging at home I’d gladly pay the same price for a supercharge as I would for gas if the supercharger network grew and was less congested when I do need it.

 

[Reciprocity]

Electrek - 23 minutes ago: Tesla looks to finish quarter strong with big Model 3 push

Some context for this article. At 2k/w model 3s, Tesla will have doubled the number of units they produce per week, in just 9 short months. Even though we all want more, that is pretty astounding. If they are able to get to just 4k/w next quarter, they will have effectively doubled revenues and tripled weekly production in just 1 year. The best part is that there is upside to further double the 4k/w number in less then 12 months after that. This is why the stock has a high value. Its not so much the total number of units or the total revenue, but the ability to grow and the ability to consume market share. This cannot be taken lightly because it has two impacts. The obvious one is that more market share is awesome and high margin market share is even better. But also, It forces competitors to react, which forces them to move up their plans and works to Tesla's master plan. If the competition can build better cars, then more power to them, but I have my doubts. What I always come back to is... If they could build better cars, they would have by now. In my opinion, Tesla's cars are superior to the current competition, so I have no reason to think that the competition will have a very hard time building a superior car. They also have many many issues that are working against them. Tesla has only Tesla to worry about. If they focus and keep plodding forward on the same path they have been, they will end up with a sizable market share for some of the most valuable segments by margin. This margin will drive them to either profitability or more and faster product releases/ramps. The Y and Pickup jump to mind.

 

[schonelucht]

To those who claim this is an inopportune time to try give a signal by Tesla, I'd say take a look at the 1M chart. The stock is already getting eviscerated. The large number of VIN assignments and invites are good indicators for a higher production rate. Registering nearly 5000 VINs in 3 days is not.

 

[Reciprocity]

Its clear to me that Porsche is not building the Mission-e as a serious vehicle:

Porsche says ‘Tesla’s Superchargers are not sustainable’, they will charge more for their own charging network

They seem to be wanting them not to sell. The main advantage is that they are cheaper to run. Certainly people can charge at home, but the experience no road trips will be bad.

 

[Reciprocity]

To those who claim this is an inopportune time to try give a signal by Tesla, I'd say take a look at the 1M chart. The stock is already getting eviscerated. The large number of VIN assignments and invites are good indicators for a higher production rate. Registering nearly 5000 VINs in 3 days is not.

Why would tricking people for 10 days help anything? All of tech is being Eviscerated. What you are talking about would be Harakiri (thanks Wikipedia.)

 

[Waiting4M3]

To those who claim this is an inopportune time to try give a signal by Tesla, I'd say take a look at the 1M chart. The stock is already getting eviscerated. The large number of VIN assignments and invites are good indicators for a higher production rate. Registering nearly 5000 VINs in 3 days is not.

It's not like we've seen any VINs getting assigned or people getting invited lately

 

[Mike Smith]

500 Norway deliveries in the last 4 days. That's pretty exciting. Hopefully another 600 next week.

 

[schonelucht]

It's not like we've seen any VINs getting assigned or people getting invited lately

I've also seen it rain lately. Is that therefore also a good sign for the ramp? No.

We've seen two articles already from major sources in this field that highlight the increased VIN registrations. If Tesla wanted to signal, at least it worked. Also not convinced that the stock gets slaughtered if it the signalled gains don't fan out. We weren't slaughtered when the very real signal of 2500 by the end of 2017 was postponed. Tesla is a high-emotion stock and this is part of its dynamic.

 

[schonelucht]

500 Norway deliveries in the last 4 days. That's pretty exciting. Hopefully another 600 next week.

I think Bjorn probably misunderstood when he reported 1600 deliveries on one day. More likely it was 1600 deliveries in one event. The event just happens to be over 2 weeks. If so, we should see another 1000 deliveries next week.

 

[geneclean55]

I've also seen it rain lately. Is that therefore also a good sign for the ramp? No.

We've seen two articles already from major sources in this field that highlight the increased VIN registrations. If Tesla wanted to signal, at least it worked. Also not convinced that the stock gets slaughtered if it the signalled gains don't fan out. We weren't slaughtered when the very real signal of 2500 by the end of 2017 was postponed. Tesla is a high-emotion stock and this is part of its dynamic.

^ If you are a bull and are feeling good about things. I would actually encourage the above sentiment for the next week.

 

[Reciprocity]

I've also seen it rain lately. Is that therefore also a good sign for the ramp? No.

We've seen two articles already from major sources in this field that highlight the increased VIN registrations. If Tesla wanted to signal, at least it worked. Also not convinced that the stock gets slaughtered if it the signalled gains don't fan out. We weren't slaughtered when the very real signal of 2500 by the end of 2017 was postponed. Tesla is a high-emotion stock and this is part of its dynamic.

I get what your saying, I really do. But I don't see what good it would do if it's confirmed to be a deception in just 10 days. Unless you thinking they are going to do am offering next week, which would be even worse because it would raise the ire of the sec. I get what your are saying, I just don't see any upside.

 

[RobStark]

In such a scenario, would you be concerned about "Tesla games the system for the rich" type of negative press?

I would love this press. It tells all Tesla customers and potential customers Tesla goes out of its way for you.

 

[RobStark]

Oh no doubt. I just dont think they are trying to pull of some kind of delivery gymnastics to extend the tax credits. The other thing to consider is that most in Canada want/need AWD. Also consider that Canada is about 1/10th the population so probably 1/'10th the reservations when compared to the US. So that would be around 25,000 Canadian reservations if you assume a 50/50 split between US and the rest of the world. The problem is that the vast majority of those 25,000 will probably want SR AWD and probably the cheapest interior. I think the LR PUP RWD woudl be the least popular setup there, probably as few as 5,000. Its just not nearly enough even if Tesla can only manage 2k/w next quarter.

If the choice is LR AWD PuP minus $14k or SR AWD with no incentive I think the choice is easy peasy. A

 

[RobStark]

Most Canadians don’t have all wheel drive vehicles and they don’t need it. Waiting for the AWD itself might jepordize the $14k rebate. Everyone I know with a reso will take first production if given the chance.

The majority of buyers in the entry level luxury sedan class opt for AWD in Canada.

Some don't because of the cost and fuel economy penalty. With Tesla the purchase premium is lower and there is a benefit to fuel economy. So the uptake rate should be higher.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I think Bjorn probably misunderstood when he reported 1600 deliveries on one day. More likely it was 1600 deliveries in one event. The event just happens to be over 2 weeks. If so, we should see another 1000 deliveries next week.

BTW, with tomorrow Tesla will beat 16Q3, at the moment the 3rd best Q in Norway (last Saturday they delivered 41).
So, all in all, a good Q, but we'll see how next week goes.

 

[RobStark]

Its clear to me that Porsche is not building the Mission-e as a serious vehicle:

Porsche says ‘Tesla’s Superchargers are not sustainable’, they will charge more for their own charging network

They seem to be wanting them not to sell. The main advantage is that they are cheaper to run. Certainly people can charge at home, but the experience no road trips will be bad.

You realize Mission E owners will be able to charge at stations beyond Porsche Network right?

Electrify American, regular CCS stations, and Porsche Network in the USA.

In Europe there are about 4 large CCS networks, and dozens of smaller CCS networks plus Porsche network.

It is going to be a bit like PC vs Mac.

Supercharger Network will be thought out and logical.

CCS is going to a bit of a Wild West show for a while but probably just as many 100 kWh plus fast chargers per long range BEV as Tesla in the not too distant future.

 

[Reciprocity]

You realize Mission E owners will be able to charge at stations beyond Porsche Network right?

Electrify American, regular CCS stations, and Porsche Network in the USA.

In Europe there are about 4 large CCS networks, and dozens of smaller CCS networks plus Porsche network.

It is going to be a bit like PC vs Mac.

Supercharger Network will be thought out and logical.

CCS is going to a bit of a Wild West show for a while but probably just as many 100 kWh plus fast chargers per long range BEV as Tesla in the not too distant future.

Yes, and all of them will be equally expensive because the 4 large CCS networks are commercial? Maybe Electrify america wont be the same price as gas, but who knows really. VW will certainly try to make it cost as much as gas apparently.

 

[RobStark]

Yes, and all of them will be equally expensive because the 4 large CCS networks are commercial? Maybe Electrify america wont be the same price as gas, but who knows really. VW will certainly try to make it cost as much as gas apparently.

So if you buy a $100k-$200k Mission E it will be a bad experience for long road trips if you pay the equivalent of gas?

 

[JRP3]

OEM's still clinging to fuel cell hopes?
The Hydrogen-Powered Car’s Big Setback

If a green ride-sharing service were to flourish anywhere it would be in Munich, where you can rent no-emission cars on just about any city-center street. And yet Linde AG is about to shut its two-year experiment with hydrogen.

It’s another setback for fuel cell-powered cars against those that run on batteries.

But the dirty little secret about clean cars is that a decade after Tesla Inc. left hydrogen technology in the dust by putting its first all-electric sedan on the road, automobile executives still think cars that emit only water are the way of the future

A KPMG survey last year found most senior automotive executives believe battery-powered cars will ultimately fail, with hydrogen offering the true breakthrough for electric mobility. That’s what Japan is banking on— Toyota Motor Corp. is making a big bet it will triumph over batteries.

 

[dha]

Took delivery of my Model 3 yesterday. Any doubts I ever had about my TSLA investment have completely vanished. This product is mind-blowingly good. For those still hanging on for configuration invites--trust me, it's worth the wait.