General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

Sitting on Mongo's planet and contemplating Elon's April Fools Tweet:
Did he just directly and purposefully break all of the keyword based algorithm bots (and some vision based ones too)? Along with those who rely on them? If so, I'd expect a downward spike followed by an uplift. (followed by the Stock-nami)

 

[WarpedOne]

Yup, finangineeing. I full expect a very rapid run above 500.

 

[Subhuman]

Well, Ameritrade just screwed me. I'm a Scottrade carryover and apparently the banking information did not transfer when they transferred my account. So I set up my banking information for this excellent buying opportunity and now have to wait two-days for my account to be verified. Crossing my fingers that the dips last a few more days.

Finally got in at $254.10. Still have some money set aside if we go lower after Tesla releases quarterly production numbers. Based on the vin assignment thread I think production numbers are going to viewed favorably with only a slight miss. I figured it was to much of a gamble to wait until release of the numbers.

 

[sundaymorning]

Is that $250 I’m seeing?!

 

[sundaymorning]

So we’re at 2,000/ week according to an email sent by Elon. “If things go well today then we will comfortably produce 2,000/ week for 7 days.” This is pretty darn good.

Tesla Making 2,000 Model 3s Per Week, Musk Says, Missing Target For First Quarter

 

[Waiting4M3]

So we’re at 2,000/ week according to an email sent by Elon. “If things go well today then we will comfortably produce 2,000/ week for 7 days.” This is pretty darn good.

Tesla Making 2,000 Model 3s Per Week, Musk Says, Missing Target For First Quarter

This below words are interesting.

In the email, sent at the perfectly normal email time of 3:01 a.m. PDT on a Monday, Musk said it has been “extremely difficult” to pass the 2,000 vehicle per week rate for the Model 3, “but we are finally here.”
...
“If things go as planned today, we will comfortably exceed that number over a seven day period!” Musk wrote in the email, obtained by Jalopnik.
...
“This is already double the pace of 2017!” he wrote. “By the end of the year, I believe we will be producing vehicle sat least four times faster than last year.”​

If 2000/wk is 2x 2017 rate, then 4x (4k/wk) at the end of 2018 is not that great. It's also possible he was talking about overall vehicle production (MS/X/3), last year they were at 100k/yr pace, and by end of 2018 they're shooting for 400k/yr pace, which means ~6k/wk for M3.

 

[kbM3]

This below words are interesting.

In the email, sent at the perfectly normal email time of 3:01 a.m. PDT on a Monday, Musk said it has been “extremely difficult” to pass the 2,000 vehicle per week rate for the Model 3, “but we are finally here.”
...
“If things go as planned today, we will comfortably exceed that number over a seven day period!” Musk wrote in the email, obtained by Jalopnik.
...
“This is already double the pace of 2017!” he wrote. “By the end of the year, I believe we will be producing vehicle sat least four times faster than last year.”​

If 2000/wk is 2x 2017 rate, then 4x (4k/wk) at the end of 2018 is not that great. It's also possible he was talking about overall vehicle production (MS/X/3), last year they were at 100k/yr pace, and by end of 2018 they're shooting for 400k/yr pace, which means ~6k/wk for M3.

I had trouble understanding that also. Your idea that he included sx makes sense.

 

[sundaymorning]

This below words are interesting.

In the email, sent at the perfectly normal email time of 3:01 a.m. PDT on a Monday, Musk said it has been “extremely difficult” to pass the 2,000 vehicle per week rate for the Model 3, “but we are finally here.”
...
“If things go as planned today, we will comfortably exceed that number over a seven day period!” Musk wrote in the email, obtained by Jalopnik.
...
“This is already double the pace of 2017!” he wrote. “By the end of the year, I believe we will be producing vehicle sat least four times faster than last year.”​

If 2000/wk is 2x 2017 rate, then 4x (4k/wk) at the end of 2018 is not that great. It's also possible he was talking about overall vehicle production (MS/X/3), last year they were at 100k/yr pace, and by end of 2018 they're shooting for 400k/yr pace, which means ~6k/wk for M3.

It’s likely SX3 since he’s using the term “vehicle”. The 2,000/ week he specifically mentioned “M3.”

Also “double” the rate of last year means 200,000... last years SX was around 100,000, so he’s talking about all three vehicles, which means exiting the year on 400,000 rate. That’s my take on it.

 

[AudubonB]

For those of you who don't read the "Market Action" thread - we were buying today:

Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[avoigt]

It’s likely SX3 since he’s talking about since he’s using the term “vehicle”. The 2,000/ week he specifically mentioned “M3.”

Also “double” the rate of last year means 200,000... last years SX was around 100,000, so he’s talking about all three vehicles, which means exiting the year on 400,000 rate. That’s my take on it.

I do read it in the same way.

The grain of salt for me is that if he expects 6k/w M3 end of the year than the 5k/w for end of June is assumed not longer an objective but will be planned to be achieved later. To be clear this is all speculation trying to read between of the lines someone conveyed to us he has written....

400k p.a.rate end of December (2018) means for me that they certainly will manage to grow to a rate of at least 600k p.a. end of 2019, IOW 1 Mio for 2020 is in reach.

If he wants to make sure the SP/market cap is lifted he may started now a new approach to give a guidance that they can overachieve and surprise with . Thats the only way to make sure he can present stronger results than anticipated from the market otherwise the forward looking numbers somehow don't fit together IMHO.

 

[ZeApelido]

Elon imiplied 4 times the production rate at end of 2017 of ALL CARS. Production rate at end of 2017 was ~ 2000/wk (S+X) and then ~ 500-1000 / wk of Model 3 (I don't know which rate he is using). This implies a total production rate of 10,000 - 12,000 /wk vehicles at end of 2018. Approximately 8,000-10,000 Model 3's / week I would assume.

 

[sundaymorning]

I do read it in the same way.

The grain of salt for me is that if he expects 6k/w M3 end of the year than the 5k/w for end of June is assumed not longer an objective but will be planned to be achieved later. To be clear this is all speculation trying to read between of the lines someone conveyed to us he has written....

400k p.a.rate end of December (2018) means for me that they certainly will manage to grow to a rate of at least 600k p.a. end of 2019, IOW 1 Mio for 2020 is in reach.

I agree. I think the market has already priced in the 5,000/ week delay and pushed it to Q3. With them exiting the year on 6k/ week would likely mean Elon is learning to dial back his optimism a bit, which is something we need for him to do (thanks Elon), it makes things easier on everyone (workers & investors).

 

[avoigt]

Elon imiplied 4 times the production rate at end of 2017 of ALL CARS. Production rate at end of 2017 was ~ 2000/wk (S+X) and then ~ 500-1000 / wk of Model 3 (I don't know which rate he is using). This implies a total production rate of 10,000 - 12,000 /wk vehicles at end of 2018. Approximately 8,000-10,000 Model 3's / week I would assume.

The question is what exactly that sentence means: “at least four times faster than last year”

Four times faster than the last week in December production rate or four times faster than the full year production....?

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Here's my guess, feel free to come up with your own:
<1000 week: <$300 (Tesla is seriously botching the ramp and doesn't seem to be making progress, who knows when 2500/week will be reached, much less 5K or 10K/week. Based on Bloomberg tracker and current share price I think "the market" thinks this is/was a possibility)
~1500 week: Maintain ~$310-$360 range (Decent progress is being made, so maintain share price range while we await further indications of progress or lack of progress. This is looking like the most likely scenario to me.)
~2500 week: Move towards ATH and break out or pull back based on further ramp observations as April progresses (Wow! Maybe Tesla can be trusted on their 5K/week June prediction since they hit the 2500/week prediction!)

My assumption on March 21st when we were above $310 assumed we stayed above $300 until the numbers came out. Since then we've dropped and have a bunch of other "bad news" as well as further market weakness.

Sooo not sure where we go from here but should be good for retracing at least 50% of the drop I would guess. Charts are so messed up right now though so who knows.

 

[navguy12]

The question is what exactly that sentence means: “at least four times faster than last year”

Four times faster than the last week in December production rate or four times faster than the full year production....?

The native email is opaque by design.

I hope some investor asks in plain language how many Model 3's were produced on the last 7 business days of March and how many do they anticipate to make on the last 7 business days of December 2018.

 

[ZeApelido]

The question is what exactly that sentence means: “at least four times faster than last year”

Four times faster than the last week in December production rate or four times faster than the full year production....?

Yes true. Given Tesla's previous production rate statements in the past, I would take it to use the optimistic end, but that is conjecture.

 

[Rarity]

Jalopnik says that the e-mail was sent last night, but the timing doesn't seem to make sense (no production on Easter Sunday, I assume) and there is no date on the e-mail screenshot.

 

[elasalle]

Lots of care bears in the TMC jungle today. They wants to save our monies

 

[Waiting4M3]

My assumption on March 21st when we were above $310 assumed we stayed above $300 until the numbers came out. Since then we've dropped and have a bunch of other "bad news" as well as further market weakness.

Sooo not sure where we go from here but should be good for retracing at least 50% of the drop I would guess. Charts are so messed up right now though so who knows.

I think this could be similar to the 2013 dip between Sep to Nov from $193 down to $127 with the fires, then by Feb 2014 it's at $244. Charts didn't predict the fatal accident and government investigation, and it won't predict any unexpected jumps in M3 ramp either.

 

[bonnie]

Is TeslaQuila a play on $TSLAQ? It’s something that Smiegel guy has on every tweet. I have no idea what it means.

BTW, if anyone still has any doubts if Dana Hull has an anti Tesla bias

Dana Hull on Twitter

Just need to speak up here - I know Dana & she's extremely ethical. You may disagree with her articles at time (I do), but she's not anti-Tesla or pro-Tesla. She's a reporter. (And fyi, she's been attacked many many times as being just another Tesla fangirl. Also unfair.)