Hmmm, what could this "hydranet" be that Elon is teasing on Twitter (on the short video) ....
Neural Networks
Elon Musk on Twitter
Neural Networks
Elon Musk on Twitter
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sundaymorning
Active Member
This is getting comical. So analysts went from saying Tesla won’t be able to raise any capital to now saying they will raise capital before year end. Their new model suggests Tesla will have $1 billion by end of 3rd Q, which is typically when Tesla would raise money in the past to be comfortable. They seem to still be in denial that Tesla will be cash flow positive and self sustaining this year. If a capital raise comes, it’ll be for building GF 3-4. This new information can be seen in your TSLA account if you have Etrade. I guess shorts are screwed whether Tesla raises or not.
sub
Active Member
Were the bears right or just lucky? I can't remember every BS piece of "news" that came out during the 380-245 drop but other than ramp being slower than expected everything has been fine.
Did the bears know that Moody's was going to downgrade? Model X crash on auto pilot? Recall?
I know they were expecting the ramp to be further behind and they were WRONG on that one. The smart ones cashed in on their good fortune this past week, the dumb ones are still hoping for a miracle.
Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
Isn't the US$ a sort of credit system being used? Why put another layer of complexity on it? The trade deficit is not a problem as long as the chinese keep buying US debt.
Occasionally they will have to adjust their currency. Then the real costs will be reflected and the party might come to an end.
I don't expect China to revalue their currency to balance trade with US. Why would they do that?
Sure, US can devalue the dollar dramatically to balance trade, which means huge inflation. That's why US families will shoulder the huge debt one way or another. Inflation is one way, we and future generations all suffer the consequence. It's very similar to how a family is run, if I earn $3000 a month, consuming $5000 a month is not very smart.
I think both sides know how urgent the situation is. China has to stop some of the unfair practice. This "trade war" will end pretty soon.
Correct. And the ramp thing shouldn't even impact the price. If 3 months ago people valued the company at X and the timeline was laid out as it was, and now we're essentially 2.5 months closer to expectations rather than 3 months, we're still closer than we were in January to the M3 being where it needs to be. It's a huge overreaction, and much of it from poor information out there. People are acting like M/S demand has shrunk because they had less deliveries than last year....which is beyond false. They had enough orders to deliver 60k-70k S/X cars if they had the ability to produce that many. Last Q2 they had a poor S/X delivery number, so come end of Q2 when they delivered 27k S/X's and have a huge YOY growth and deliver 30k M3's, the stock price will skyrocket.
Bloomberg updated their model today:
So the press release that Tesla put out yesterday stated the following: "In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles. In the next seven days, we expect to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles and 2,000 Model 3 vehicles."
I guess the folks at Bloomberg have higher confidence in the model than actual reality. Hey, when the facts disagree with your perception of reality, you really shouldn't let the facts get in the way !
RT
So the press release that Tesla put out yesterday stated the following: "In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles. In the next seven days, we expect to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles and 2,000 Model 3 vehicles."
I guess the folks at Bloomberg have higher confidence in the model than actual reality. Hey, when the facts disagree with your perception of reality, you really shouldn't let the facts get in the way !
RT
I understand some investors suffered during this round of short attack. The best revenge against them is to implement a sound plan, don't let them get you again. Every time you lose money, the money went to their accounts.
If we all act right, they won't be able to make money. They would actually lose money: borrowing interest, money to "PR companies", money to media (paying them to write attack articles), opportunity cost, etc.
My approach is buy and hold only, keep adding with new cash. If this goes to $500 tomorrow, I am not selling. I will hold for 10 years and see what they can do.
If we all act right, they won't be able to make money. They would actually lose money: borrowing interest, money to "PR companies", money to media (paying them to write attack articles), opportunity cost, etc.
My approach is buy and hold only, keep adding with new cash. If this goes to $500 tomorrow, I am not selling. I will hold for 10 years and see what they can do.
This. No margin. No options. Just buy the dips and hold.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
GM, Ford to drop 4 car nameplates, report says
Chevrolet and Ford Division to discontinue subcompact and full size passenger cars in the USA in favor of pickups, SUVs,and CUVs. Ford Division may also discontinue midsize Fusion.
Chevrolet and Ford Division to discontinue subcompact and full size passenger cars in the USA in favor of pickups, SUVs,and CUVs. Ford Division may also discontinue midsize Fusion.
Only difference between Autopilot and you is Autopilot gets something wrong once every hundred thousand tries and you get something right every hundred thousand tries!
Reciprocity
Active Member
Bloomberg updated their model today:
So the press release that Tesla put out yesterday stated the following: "In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles. In the next seven days, we expect to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles and 2,000 Model 3 vehicles."
I guess the folks at Bloomberg have higher confidence in the model than actual reality. Hey, when the facts disagree with your perception of reality, you really shouldn't let the facts get in the way !
RT
Its just backwards looking. Really about 3 weeks backward. They added a projection on one of the other graphs which is actually pretty accurate.
I prefer to incrementally buy on margin when I think it's a ridiculously good buy, and then incrementally sell when I'm no longer comfortable with saying Tesla is a good short term buy.
But I was close to a margin call in January 2016, so I'm trying to be more careful.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Then why don't they shift the date on x-axis back by 2-3 weeks then? If they really want to be honest about what their model is actually showing?
DurandalAI
Member
If(When) gas prices rise 15-20% between now and summer of 2019, I wonder how this will affect those who want to shift to more fuel efficient vehicles? Will they have the PHEVs ready by that point and be able to scale them up? Or will they lose further market share at that point?
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Bloomberg updated their model today:
So the press release that Tesla put out yesterday stated the following: "In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles. In the next seven days, we expect to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles and 2,000 Model 3 vehicles."
I guess the folks at Bloomberg have higher confidence in the model than actual reality. Hey, when the facts disagree with your perception of reality, you really shouldn't let the facts get in the way !
RT
I know you're going for humor (and I admit as well, I smiled too), the two things you're comparing are straight up different. Tesla has made a statement about what happened in one particular 7 day period, and a corresponding statement of intent about what will happen in the following 7 day period. (They also said something about the total activity in the previous quarter in total).
I too take Tesla's statement as the highest confidence statement about what will actually happen over those two weeks, and clearly that's different than Bloomberg's model.
Bloomberg's model is also saying something about the weeks leading up to the 2 week window Tesla has said something about, and will continue saying something about the weeks after Tesla isn't talking and providing high confidence information. Is Bloomberg's model right? Of course not. The famous quote "all models are wrong, some models are useful" applies here as it does everywhere.
And I find the Bloomberg model output very useful, even for this 2 week window when its clearly wrong.
If we understand the model and its input, then we can even predict now what it will look like in a couple of weeks when the Tesla statement and 1 week forecast show up in real data in the real world.
Or we can look at the model and compare it to what Tesla has said, as well as other independent metrics from the world, to get better at reading the tea leaves. At least to me, this is a valuable contribution to the larger view of ramp activity. I like receiving better than bad or misleading quality information on a daily or more frequent basis, in addition to high quality information once or twice a quarter.
I also expect the frequent and non-authoritatively source information to have a lot more variation in it
Reciprocity
Active Member
Well the 3 weeks late is just my assessment of when it was accurate. To their credit, their projection that they added seems to be pretty spot on. Time will tell.
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