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As promised last week, another analysis of reported VINs over the last 4 weeks.
Max VIN assignment is now nearly 2000/week (theorized to represent production line speed). Average/Median VIN rate is about 1600/week (theorized to represent finished car rate including quality control). Minimum VIN rate is nearly the same, which may indicate no bottlenecks in reworking or a steady quality in production. Remember, these numbers are retrospective and not necesarilly predictive. They run over the last four weeks, so it is absolutely plausible they are lower than the rate indicated by Tesla for the current last two weeks.
Max VIN assignment is now nearly 2000/week (theorized to represent production line speed). Average/Median VIN rate is about 1600/week (theorized to represent finished car rate including quality control). Minimum VIN rate is nearly the same, which may indicate no bottlenecks in reworking or a steady quality in production. Remember, these numbers are retrospective and not necesarilly predictive. They run over the last four weeks, so it is absolutely plausible they are lower than the rate indicated by Tesla for the current last two weeks.
Thumper
Active Member
Rooster Trump crows, sun comes up. Trump takes credit.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
As production volume increase, could a constant offset between avg/med vs min could mean a smaller gap percentage-wise, and lower rework rate?
I would think so too. One kink in the cable though is international issues. We already see the gap for Canada VINs in the max. Clearly VIN assignment for Canadian customers happen on a different schedule. In a few weeks that will filter through to the min and may skew data there. For example we'll see min widening with respect to production rate, without that meaning that quality is going down, just that Canadian cars are on a different schedule.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Question, if China reduces the 25%, does that also reduce Tesla's urgency to build a factory in China? Since Tesla is production constrained, it would make sense for them to build factory closed to the largest production/demand gap is. There was a rumor on reddit a few weeks ago with some notes from an early Feb investor meeting, and one items was that M3 reservation wasn't as strong in China as expected. Judging on TMC there is high interest for M3 in Europe. If China lowers tariff on cars, would it actually make Tesla more likely to build factory 1st in Europe and China 2nd? Tesla will probably end up building in both Europe and China in the next 3 years anyway, my WAG.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I haven't seen any Canadian customers reporting VIN in Troy's sheet, can you point to a link to the gap for Canada VIN? I assume you mean that Canadians are getting lower VIN compared to US customers getting VIN in the same time frame
If that's the case, the VIN assignment gap could be just some sort of rotation in Tesla's VIN assignment scheme, similar to the east coast then west coast then east coast US pattern that we saw. Or it could be due to the fact that this is the 1st batch of deliveries in Canada, so Tesla reverted back to shipping those cars to Canadian stores 1st, setting up the delivery process, then assigning the VINs to customers, so those 1st Canadian customers got lower range VINs. I think we will know more about the pattern once we start seeing more Canadian deliveries, it's probably too early to tell at this time.
Edit:
Saw your post in 200k thread, you mean the gap from 15800-17400. Yes I guess those could filter out into low VIN slower than VINs assigned to US customers. IIRC Canadian cars have some physical differences such as bi-lingual safety labels and red seat belt buckles, as well as some SW interface/FW difference that affects daytime running lights, and different data connection provider. I wonder if the gap means that Tesla is still finishing some of those items. I guess we will find out what is actually different on the M3 soon.
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dc_h
Active Member
It would make it hard for them to build Model S & X fast enough in the short term and impossible to build enough 3's in the USA in the next 2-3 years. It should accrue directly to the bottom line though in S/X sales. It does seem like they could be building almost 50% more S/X if they added a 3rd shift back for the line. Not sure they can hire enough people to do that though. Seems like they needed to shift S\X staff over to 3 line to max production already. Is staffing a bottleneck?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Demand in Europe right now is result of US price plus 10% plus shipping while Chinese demand is result of US price plus 25% plus shipping.Tesla qualifies for European incentives while Tesla does not qualify for Chinese incentives other that access to ZEV license plates.
If Chinese tariff is 10% demand from China may exceed that of Europe. Demand is likely to be more price sensitive in this segment.
If Tesla owns 100% of its Chinese factory it can export to Japan, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan and New Zealand from China
For that matter, logically the gap would be consistently lowest for deliveries nearest to Fremont and increase with typical transportation and other logistical issues (e.g. customs clearance, locally required inspections/certifications). Practically we seem to have no major impacts within US 48 States. Is that correct, or can we make more granular evaluations?
This matters, I think, because we have a decent insight of US Tesla distribution. Major States, such as Texas and Michigan, have nearly international-like delays due to the prohibition of local sales. Some other major areas like New England and Florida have physical distances that probably incur measurable delays.
Years ago I recall evaluating those logistical issues in coordinating new model introduction. The were definitely material for that.
Maybe I am overcomplicating this, considering all the other uncertainties we have anyway.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Tesla Teams Up With British Petroleum.
In other news, a squadron of pigs request landing clearance at JFK... snowballs make surprise appearance in hell... etc. etc.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I can't visualize how the VIN assignment would be related to customer location, with a few exceptions (below). VIN assignment happens when the car comes off of production line, so the VIN # should only depend on the state of production, and only the locations of the customers getting the VIN assignments seem to be affected by batching and shipping/delivery turn around time.
Exceptions that I can think of:
1) at a few times Tesla seem to have assigned cars after the car have arrived at delivery location, this doesn't seem to be a common practice
2) End of Quarter, in March Tesla seems to have a high VIN assignment push starting ~3/7 even before production rate was known to have ramped up, my guess is that they were assigning cars further back in the production process in order to leave more time to make sure they can line up delivery before the EoQ
3) Canada case, it could be related to slight HW differences in Canadian car, or the fact that this is the 1st batch of Canada delivery, so they're still setting up the assignment/delivery process for Canada, and timing is different from what we typically see for US
The size of that purchase is pretty impressive (212 megawatt/840 megawatt hour). And the cells seem to be of the type that are coming from the gigafactory.
StapleGun
Member
Hey, a customer is a customer... and it's hardly "teaming up".
MartinAustin
Active Member
You are totally correct.
"First they ignore you
Then they laugh at you
Then they fight you
Then you win."
Could Tesla be stepping on the final line of that Ghandi speech?
Unfortunately we found out in the market thread that this was misreported. Actual size is 840kWh or 4 powerpacks. More symbolic than material.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Actually I was referring to the gap between vin assignment and delivery. As a rule that has been almost all inventory cars that had vins but no delivery, with the vin assignment/delivery lag being otherwise geographically based.
Others, including Bloomberg, use the VIN batch pulls in this process so have a batch pull/production correlation. @schonelucht has been very adept at that process. However, since VIN batch pulls can be however large the Manufacturer wants them to be that can actually be assigned at any time up to 30 days after "production begins". In other words, cars can actually be completed and sitting but not yet have vins assigned.
The issue I was attempting (poorly) to assess is the accounting distinction between WIP and Finished goods, and add the distribution issue. FWIW, in common industry practice a CKD (Complete Knock Down) car, like pure assembly plants, often assign VIN at the end of the assembly process or later. Tesla usually assigns VIN at the beginning of the assembly process, so advises owners of their vins prior to completion of build, which does cause occasional confusion when owners have VIN changes after they've completed financing.
Maybe I'm beating this subject to death.
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