General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Yggdrasill]

Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry

The oil industry is starting to feel the effects of electrification. But they haven't seen anything yet. (Think about what a few hundred thousand semis can do...)

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

The Troy spreadsheet data estimated no production on Monday and 321 Model 3s yesterday. Will be interesting how the rest of the week shapes up. I would expect the daily number to increase until the weekly rate is 3,000+ as the post startup kinks are worked out if Elon's target comes true. This should be achievable before the ER next week.

 

[schonelucht]

Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry

The oil industry is starting to feel the effects of electrification. But they haven't seen anything yet. (Think about what a few hundred thousand semis can do...)

I still would have liked to see what Tesla could have done to the electric bus market. Unfortunately Elon didn't believe in public transport at the time they had to commit to development.

 

[Reciprocity]

Look a 250mile EV that is coming in 2020!!

BMW Unveils Electric SUV as Its First Planned Export From China

Tesla’s actual lead on EV performance is very under appreciated.

Compare that to what the model Y will look like at 300 miles of range for the dual motor version. That's compared to the BMW at 250 wltp or what ever the new standard is called, which is probably closer to 220 epa rated. Both with 70-75kwh pack so I would guess the pricing will be similar. At 220, the BMW would be 318 wh/mi. Not terrible for a vehicle with that profile. I expect the Y to be closer to 250 wh/mi.

I have no doubt that this will be a decent vehicle but everyone is still trying to compete with Tesla from 2013, and they are not ready for Tesla 2020 even though that is when these vehicles come out. 150kw charging isn't bad but in 2020, I expect greater than 300kw charging from Tesla.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

We need some help on aisle 10:

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[schonelucht]

View attachment 296432

For what it is worth. I have a lower overhead ($120M) for Q1, but I have it growing somewhat over the next quarters (as more equipment gets put into service). I also have a lower marginal additional profit contribution per car ($8k), but I have this number growing over the next quarters (reflecting volume discounts from suppliers and increased production efficiencies). While slightly more sophisticated, the end result is the same : gross margins should easily be double digit positive when we hit 5k/week.

 

[CaliBear1]

It is beyond extraordinary that Elon Musk is almost singlehandedly dragging the entire moribund auto industry into a brighter, cleaner, safer, more efficient and exciting future.

Look a 250mile EV that is coming in 2020!!

BMW Unveils Electric SUV as Its First Planned Export From China

Tesla’s actual lead on EV performance is very under appreciated.

 

[jbcarioca]

I still would have liked to see what Tesla could have done to the electric bus market. Unfortunately Elon didn't believe in public transport at the time they had to commit to development.

I really do not think that is correct. Elon wants to deliver solutions to highly resistant markets from Tesla Roadster to Falcon Heavy, doing things thought to be impossible. These have spawned imitation and innovation quite broadly. Busses have never been difficult, which is why known non-innovators like Blue-Bird are notable, with BYD unquestionably the global market leader. Nothing about busses has needed Musk-style innovation. Semi is a completely different issue and that have spawned some entertaining competition too.

Despite being a TSLA shareholder I do not think Elon is concerned about stock market reaction except to the extent that it could impede constant innovation. That is fine with me.

 

[mongo]

For what it is worth. I have a lower overhead ($120M) for Q1, but I have it growing somewhat over the next quarters (as more equipment gets put into service). I also have a lower marginal additional profit contribution per car ($8k), but I have this number growing over the next quarters (reflecting volume discounts from suppliers and increased production efficiencies). While slightly more sophisticated, the end result is the same : gross margins should easily be double digit positive when we hit 5k/week.

Are you lumping S/X/3 overhead into the same line item? Or reducing the S/X overhead based on factory utilization (non-line specific) attributed to the 3?

 

[mongo]

I really do not think that is correct. Elon wants to deliver solutions to highly resistant markets from Tesla Roadster to Falcon Heavy, doing things thought to be impossible. These have spawned imitation and innovation quite broadly. Busses have never been difficult, which is why known non-innovators like Blue-Bird are notable, with BYD unquestionably the global market leader. Nothing about busses has needed Musk-style innovation. Semi is a completely different issue and that have spawned some entertaining competition too.

Despite being a TSLA shareholder I do not think Elon is concerned about stock market reaction except to the extent that it could impede constant innovation. That is fine with me.

Agreed, buses were already going electric, so Tesla getting into that realm might actually be a detriment to the acceleration of green transport (lowering profit margins through competition). Tesla is putting electric into new forms of transport, not trying to compete in somewhat established areas.

 

[techmaven]

The world aluminum price is increasing due to US sanction against a major world producer from Russia. Will this affect Tesla's profit margin, considering that S and X are major aluminum consumers?

russian aluminum wars - Google Search

There are about 400 pounds of aluminum in the body in white of a Model S. Aluminum spot price is around $1.11 per pound. So that's around $450 worth of aluminum. It was under $1/lb for most of the past year, so the price has increased about $80. Maybe a hit to the gross margin of 0.1%?

 

[schonelucht]

Are you lumping S/X/3 overhead into the same line item? Or reducing the S/X overhead based on factory utilization (non-line specific) attributed to the 3?

No. I am talking strictly about Model 3 here. I model them seperately.

 

[schonelucht]

Nothing about busses has needed Musk-style innovation. Semi is a completely different issue and that have spawned some entertaining competition too.

What do you see as a difficilty with semi's that isn't there with busses?

 

[Waiting4M3]

What do you see as a difficilty with semi's that isn't there with busses?

Maybe range? How many buses require 500 mi range? Passengers need bathroom breaks.

 

[JRP3]

One of the few bears I'll feel badly for Bear dead after colliding with Tesla electric car on I-5 in Oregon

 

[elasalle]

What do you see as a difficilty with semi's that isn't there with busses?

Battery performance, I think is key. I think City Buses don't need performance like Semis - lower speeds, stop and go, stalling on each stop. However, inter city (e.g Grey Hound) types might be good use case for high performances buses. - Tesla should build those ...

 

[Krugerrand]

Look a 250mile EV that is coming in 2020!!

BMW Unveils Electric SUV as Its First Planned Export From China

Tesla’s actual lead on EV performance is very under appreciated.

“This will see a low-volume vehicle being made at a low-cost site.”

 

[Krugerrand]

I still would have liked to see what Tesla could have done to the electric bus market. Unfortunately Elon didn't believe in public transport at the time they had to commit to development.

What? Of course he believes in public transport. It’s more like there are other fish to fry first and the barbecue is only so big.

 

[Krugerrand]

One of the few bears I'll feel badly for Bear dead after colliding with Tesla electric car on I-5 in Oregon

 

[jbcarioca]

What do you see as a difficilty with semi's that isn't there with busses?

Busses in nearly all applications are urban and have precisely defined routes, often with scheduled downtime during both day and night, so battery sizes can be smaller and precisely sized. Most Semi (class 6 and above) have longer routes and smaller scheduled downtime situated to make planned intra-day charging easy. Obviously generalizations, but city and school busses are certainly easy targets, just as urban delivery trucks, garbage trucks and the like are easy targets,

The Tesla Semi target of heavy OTR trucks seems to me like the most challenging.