Good to hear. I have max loaded also!
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Waiting4M3
Active Member
Jalopnik actually has mostly positive stuff to say about the M3
https://jalopnik.com/the-tesla-model-3-makes-the-future-feel-normal-1821684820
https://jalopnik.com/the-tesla-model-3-makes-the-future-feel-normal-1821684820
Reciprocity
Active Member
Ahhh.. revenue recognition.. I dont know how much they left unrecognized in prior quarters. They dont really tell us how many cars have AP2 so its hard to tell. Could still be 50M worth, which would only be 1-2% of the AP2 revenue.
Tesla Firmware Upgrade Tracker Web App
Says 1/1 was the first, but it might have been tracked on another system sooner. It also might have been released 12/31 and just took till 1/1 for people to install.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
...and tellingly, your conclusion is that you have nothing to learn from this? I swear, with you guys it's like facts just don't cross the eye-brain barrier. Only the prejudices.
All those things you've enumerated don't matter and you are blind to the things that do, which are unfolding right now under your very eyes.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Alex Roy seems to be hinting at a negative Model 3 review coming up, quite a few complaints about cold in his twitter feed.
Alex Roy on Twitter
Alex Roy on Twitter
Alex Roy on Twitter
Alex Roy on Twitter
etc.
Alex Roy on Twitter
Alex Roy on Twitter
Alex Roy on Twitter
Alex Roy on Twitter
etc.
Reciprocity
Active Member
There is no bar dude or dudette. The bar is not a real thing. IT DOES NOT MATTER what Elon said.. What matters is that the Model 3, which shouldn't even exist for another 15 months and is ramping to 300,000+/year. You keep thinking that things people say matter, they dont. What matters is what people do. This is a fact. I know shorts are pissed the stock is not 0 and that Tesla didnt go to zero every time Elon's projections didnt come to pass, but its clear that they do not matter. Get it??? Actual Results matter and nothing else. What matters is actual things that happened in the past and things that are happening right now. Actual things. Not talk, but actual physical activity. Is it so easy to dismiss Model S market share in its segment with 40%, more then 9 other competitors combined? Against the absolute titans of automotive perfection, BMW, Porsche, Audi and Daimler. They are getting the floor mopped with their brands. And their answer? Those companies have not innovated for decades, what makes you think they are going to in the next decade. Tiny incremental updates or worse, some of their older cars are better as they cut costs.
The share price is representative of investors beliefs that Tesla will deliver. If they thought Tesla would fail, they would sell and you would be rich. Its as simple as it gets. Maybe its irrational, but either way, the stock holders are going to give Elon the benefit of the doubt and that is clear. Because of that, its a bad stock to short.
Lets try this from another direction because I really want to hear a real argument. What is your scenario where Tesla fails so badly that the stock price gets cut in half. And no black swans. An actual simple scenario that all us longs can even understand. Cuz frankly, I cant see a realistic scenario where Tesla doesnt turn production to 11 and bury shorts by years end.
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Buddyroe
Active Member
Any of you guys want to help me out with this? Feel free to sign-up and post!
Tesla M3 Argument
"LOL. The Model 3 was supposed to be in full production months ago. If you do not think there is an issue with the fact that they are well under their projected production/delivery numbers, then you are a bigger fool than we think you are."
Tesla M3 Argument
"LOL. The Model 3 was supposed to be in full production months ago. If you do not think there is an issue with the fact that they are well under their projected production/delivery numbers, then you are a bigger fool than we think you are."
DurandalAI
Member
Am I supposed to know who this tool is?
Not sure why this forum got an idea that Alex Roy might say positive things about Tesla. He is a co-host of a podcast (autonocast, no, I am not going to link to it) along with the infamous Ed Neidermeyer. In someways, he is even worse than Neidermeyer, especially when he talks about Autopilot. He is a huge fan of GM supercruise and cannot stop yapping about that. So take whatever he says with a pinch of salt.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The estimates for M3 deliveries for Q4 are really silly. Tesla to report its car sales this week, and expectations are all over the map
In light of Elon’s comments from the Q3 earnings call (some of which I posted earlier) and the current known Vin #s, I am not sure how these folks can put out numbers like this (I know, many have an agenda that is not inline with being accurate). As many have been stating, all that really matters is what is happening going forward. Hopefully, the markets understand this if/when Tesla “disappoints” based on analysts expectations. If not, those of us who get it will have another buying opportunity. I for one am very pleased with what I see as substantial progress. And, more importantly, based on initial reactions, Tesla has created an incredible, game-changing car. This is what will really matters in the long run.
In light of Elon’s comments from the Q3 earnings call (some of which I posted earlier) and the current known Vin #s, I am not sure how these folks can put out numbers like this (I know, many have an agenda that is not inline with being accurate). As many have been stating, all that really matters is what is happening going forward. Hopefully, the markets understand this if/when Tesla “disappoints” based on analysts expectations. If not, those of us who get it will have another buying opportunity. I for one am very pleased with what I see as substantial progress. And, more importantly, based on initial reactions, Tesla has created an incredible, game-changing car. This is what will really matters in the long run.
Reciprocity
Active Member
There is equally 0 evidence that the ramp is not happening. So when you have that conundrum, you simply look at the ramps of the S/X. You simply look at actual historical facts. Things that really really happened, not made up stuff. You can read shorts from those ramps saying dumb stuff too, like "where am I going to charge it." Maybe your damn garage like everyone else? When people said Elon was nuts for thinking they could make and sell 20k Model S in a year. Or Bob Lutz who said the model X was not manufacturable. Like, you cannot make more then a few by hand.
I disagree with your extremely likely scenario. What is Tesla going to spend this 3.2 billion on? You do realize they already paid for the equipment to build the model 3 right? How many times do shorts think you need to pay for a single Kuka robot? There is no way of knowing what the production rate is, but VINs would point to more then 1000/W today and the likelihood of 2k/W this month. This is a very rapid pace of improvement that we would expect based on historical data and based on the more automated nature of the Model 3 production. Once issues are resolved, the whole line can speed up which makes other issue more apparent. This cycle continues up the S-Curve until they hit their targets, at which point they will duplicate the parts of the line required to go to 10k, which should be much smoother.
This company will not need to raise funds again, unless they want to. You only pay for Kuka robots once, even in shortsville. 100,000 Model S/X generates 3B in FCF every year. Tesla probably added 500M to 1B in reservations for Semi and Roadster. Tesla can do the same thing with Model Y for more by just doubling the deposit over the Model 3. Every model 3 produced from the beginning of Q2 going forward will contribute to cash flow or at the very least not take away from it.
I would also posit that if your scenario is closer to reality that the stock price would still be over 300 because it has so much support for those of us who believe.
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Myusername, I would suggest you take a close look at your news sources, personal bias, or both.
The bolded statement is factually incorrect. If you are basing investment decisions on factually incorrect data, you are very likely going to get very bad results.
If you accept the bolded statement as fact, the second part makes sense.
Alternatively, if you only consider the missed objectives and not the ones that were made, that also leads to bad conclusions.
I strongly suggest you try to consider the other side of the argument without the apparent bias.
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Yes I saw that article when published, but it is completely at odds with his tone when he speaks about Tesla.
I will wait for his full review. He has his motivations too, to be nice to Tesla. He was angling to be the guy in the car when Tesla does it's cross country trip. Am pretty sure he won't be getting that opportunity.
Tesla's self-driving CA to NY "Cannonball" run needs Alex Roy
you've stated that the bolded section: "objectives for 2017 one year ago today... and NONE of them were met EXCEPT the share price" was incorrect... then gave zero examples of what was incorrect.
if you read my post... you'd see a link to an article about a Baird's analysis for Tesla in 2017... and if you read the excerpts from it that I posted... then you'd see that I am in fact correct.
"I strongly suggest you try to consider the other side of the argument without the apparent bias."
I did... for years... and always came to the same conclusions... no matter how poorly this company performs... you and others will always look at every situation with rose colored glasses.
tell me... how is the M3 in a wonderful situation right now?
tell me how great the Solor Roof is coming along...
tell me how great the profit ramp is on PowerWall
tell me how great the GM ramp is on MS/MX
tell me how great everything is... because it's fascinating to watch... because it simply isn't. the only data we have is in Q3 they delivered a couple hundred M3s and we will shortly discover that they did not meet any objectives for Q4 regarding the M3... so please, tell me how this is awesome and that the SP should go to $400 again
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Just got a Twitter alert on changes to the Model 3 VIN numbers. The people tracking it have been wondering why even many of the later VINs were showing a production year of 2017. It now appears, that VINs starting 3027 and up have been updated to show 2018.
Asking very quietly: could that possibly mean Tesla produced all the earlier VINs in 2017? Would be above my expectations.
Asking very quietly: could that possibly mean Tesla produced all the earlier VINs in 2017? Would be above my expectations.
Will be interesting to see if they've reached out to Tesla or other owners to confirm if the heating in that 1 car was broken or not. With some of Tesla's biggest markets (Norway anyone?) being very cold in the winter, I would be shocked if Tesla hadn't prepared the Model 3 for that kind of climate.
In one of his tweets he said that heating in the M3 was adequate: Alex Roy on Twitter
So my guess is his complaint is more about the range loss from using the heat, and the lack of a heat pump.
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