General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[JRP3]

I miss the manual chain connection on the old emergency brakes, which was the last piece of braking hardware to be completely non-electronics-dependent.

I've had enough of them rust and either seize up or break that I can't say they were necessarily better.

 

[JRP3]

Data point to throw at the "batteries won't last" FUDsters, Tesloop Model X hits 300,000 miles and still going strong with only 10% capacity loss Tesloop on Twitter

First Tesloop Model X to achieve 300,000 miles in just 1.75 years. Rex is still supercharging on the original battery. #Teslove

 

[goinfraftw]

In the 90’s it used to be called mindshare. People build affiliations based on personal and professional knowledge, which may be tied to their current and future earnings. I’ve watched people fight over Netscape vs Microsoft and Microsoft v Novell and on and on. Usually if you step back you can see who’s really winning. On a trip to visit Netscape back in 1994 we saw Microsoft’s new tech partnership across the street, I think it was Deloitte, who originally was going to partner with Netscape.
I had thought Netscape was going to kick ass, but they had only built an application layer, they didn’t have their own OS or app partners. Microsoft sold a $1000 server license for every 1000 I spent on Netscape and had the means to build competitive products as a close follower. Elon gets this and is building the whole infrastructure. GM gets no cut of sales, no dealer partnerships. Tesla delivers fuel to charging stations, no one else’s schedule, no one ok with close follower role. Batteries would be a huge vulnerability that most VC’s would encourage a founder to outsource. Hyundai has hit a production wall, while Tesla has a tsunami at its back.
I see competitive advantage in Tesla’s business model stretching out several years and a still surprising lack of serious competition. VW seems to want to jump in, but think they are only now getting the scale of the supply chain problem they face. All the others, outside of China, are pure niche players without any ability to scale past 100,000 ev’s for several years. When I invested in Tesla in 2013, I thought they had a five year head start. In the intervening 5 years I see little progress in closing the gap. The only exceptions are Waymo and GM cruise. Elon has stated that AP is going to be lame driver, better lame driver then pretty good then great. We seem to be at stage two lame driver. Good at holding lanes, but like my HS pal who drove full speed into the back of our big Lebowski grade a yellow Ford Torino. The next stage pretty good driver could be announced next week or next year. It seems like a harder problem than the Elon thought. Hopefully the addition of so many new 3’s will speed up the hive mind.
Here’s to the future, I’m hoping to hear about it next week at the shareholders meeting.

Netscape, and ultimately Firefox, created Trillions of dollars of industries (and still are with the ever-growing open source movement occurring at a rapid pace worldwide now) thanks to the browser. It took 5-7 years before the web could really take off and has continued for 20 years.

We're talking about transportation as a platform here and really have no idea how big this could get once Tesla gets to a good ramp of 5,000 cars/week and, eventually, 10,000's cars a week. We're going from analog to digital here for the most intricate machines we've ever created in human history. With 7.62 B people on the planet and, at least, 1.2 B cars worldwide, we're talking about a market potential of usage that the smartphone can't match. What app or platform isn't going to want to be on Tesla, or EV car, infrastructure once that's opened up? The superchargers and Gigafactories are a HUGE untapped moat that's just inviting competitors to become coopetitors and partners.

I've mentioned job loss due to the change in the past. Though, with the Q3/Q4 potential of cash flow positive and the ready-to-go institutional money to get to more GigaFactories and Resourcing, think the potential ramp up of creative and interesting jobs within the Tesla family (especially services) will build up rapidly alongside the major increase in revenue growth. Who knows if the Model 3 really is the iPhone as much as it's the iMac (Even though I dislike making an Apple comparison - it's the closest hardware relative to what's happening here).

As an addendum and a bit of hyperbole: think a lot of markets are coming together, right now and very quickly, to realize that we need to do this and it will happen as an eventuality as what a number of posters on this forum feel and have noted.

 

[JRP3]

Model 3 gets a fluffier rear seat to address comfort issues: https://electrek.co/2018/06/02/tesla-model-3-new-backseat/

 

[kbM3]

Another thought on this. Imagine if you could go back in time and change what Elon said about the production ramp for the model 3. What if instead of saying 500,000 by the end of 2018, he instead said that they plan to double the total number of units produced at Fremont in 9 months, and double it again in 9 months after that. Because that is more then likely what will happen and that would have been a big enough statement to move or protect the stock price. Gone would be all this crap about a failed ramp, because frankly doubling production every 9 months is not failure, its pretty much what Tesla has been doing for a decade and its pretty much as fast as fast as anyone could improve production as an upstart auto manufacturer. As a matter of fact, its a requirement to survive and grow and the reason you dont see any new American car companies in the last several decades besides Tesla. Certainly they could have stopped at S/X and made money over the long run, but if you want to keep growing you cant make 1000/w mid sized lux sedans and compete on price. You need the scale that comes with 10k/w to compete. Without the 10k/w you dont have Panasonic committed at the GF1 and you dont have pricing and terms from tier one suppliers and thus you would be unable to compete.

Tesla is doing only exactly what is required to grow and be competitive and they are doing it very well when you put things into perspective. This is why I say you should ignore what Elon says and focus on what Elon and Tesla delivers. Elon lives in a time dilation bubble where time moves much slower and he can get more done, but that bubble does not expand farther then his head.

Once Model 3s hit the ground in mass and over the holidays when family and friends are getting dozens of test drives and as people go back to work and their neighborhoods and give people rides, this negative news cycle will change because the consumers of the news will be clamoring for it. This should coincide very well with 2 qtrs of profits and should be explosive for the stock. I also predict that by the middle of next year that Tesla will finally come out with the refreshed styling on the the S and X. I expect this to be more evolutionary then revolutionary, but it should have some features form the model 3 like the AC and single screen to improve maneuverability. The binnacle screen would be replaced by a Augmented reality HUD, similar to what Panasonic showed off more then a year ago. This refresh and 2170 pack will show up right as the tax credits diminish to $1,850. My new Theory is that Tesla will drop the 75Ds and replace it with a 120D based on the 2170 and continue to make the 100D based on the 18650. This will help Panasonic and will help in the transition of the entire lineup over a year or more. Getting rid of the low margin 75D and replacing it with the higher margin 100D and letting Model 3P fill that vacuum at much higher margins then the S75D. Tesla will have the ability to lower prices at every point in the product line while going more upscale with the 120Ds and still maintain better margins then they had with 75Ds in the lineup because the margin difference between the low end S and the high end Model 3s.

The model 3 also has an incredible range of market segments that it can compete. From all the way down to a Carolla, all the way up to a BMW M5 or AMG E63 or Audi S4/5 and that is without any tax credits. (the caveat here is that I am assuming that Tesla will offer a ludicrous mode for Model 3 to make it competitive with the 5 series and E class level sports cars.)

Do I think that many Carolla customers will buy a model 3? No, but if you are a motivated enough and you have solar or are in a good place for solar, then you can make it happen. This is why the Model 3 being such a sexy car is important. It will drive people into doing the math and will motivate people to cut some expenses to be able to afford the higher model 3 payments because to make it competitive on price you must take into consideration residual value, which is something you dont get back until you sell the car. Even if you never sell the car and you have Solar, the Model 3 will win the marathon with its lower TCO while maint and fuel costs continue to grow for ICE vehicles as they age.

I loved this post. I was thinking about the time bubble in Elon’s head. He is trying to pull the whole company into that bubble, and they’re not there yet, but way closer than anyone else.

 

[Starno]

I agree. I think we are going to see a shift in the news cycle sooner rather than later. I believe it will start to happen as we cross over into 4,000+/week, along with the reviews of the AWD and performance model 3s that have refinements since the early production units. The financial news media will react to the stock turning positive, fueling that fire. We should start to see that when the stock breaks out above the range. I think this could start as early as later this month but may still take another month or two.

I think we're going to get to >300 next week (pure speculation though).

But over 330 I agree that it might take some time (pure speculation also).

 

[CaliBear1]

Calibear, Be sure to visit Point du Hoc when you are at the battlefields.

Thanks Thumper. Part of the all day D-Day/Band of Brothers Tour we're taking. Rangers lead the way!

Headed to St. Mere Eglise right now. They are reenacting the night drop in a few hours.

 

[ruralectric]

Model 3 gets a fluffier rear seat to address comfort issues: First look at Tesla Model 3’s new backseat

I went to Bellevue Square a couple of months ago and sat in a Model 3. The back seat was what I disliked most about the car. It felt like there was a 2x4 just beneath the upholstery on the leading edge of the seat. I wouldn't have lasted long if I'd actually had to ride back there. Good to see a change there, and I hope this takes care of the problem.

 

[avoigt]

VW plans to build 3 new factories in China and presents a new EV brand Sol for the China Market.

• In 7-8 years they intend to produce 40 local EVs.
• After 2025 they want to produce 1,5 Mio EVs
• €15 bn Investment up to 2022
• All of those in cooperation with their local partner

https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Volkswagen-plant-neue-Werke-in-China-article20461031.html

 

[Runarbt]

Model 3 gets a fluffier rear seat to address comfort issues: https://electrek.co/2018/06/02/tesla-model-3-new-backseat/

Ah.. so Flufferbot didnt get that long a vacation? :-D

 

[defc0n]

RIP flufferbot we hardly knew ye

 

[Reciprocity]

RIP flufferbot we hardly knew ye

The flufferbot is dead, long live the flufferbot!

 

[RobStark]

What he's actually trying to do is to force grid operators to buy power at inflated prices from uneconomic power plants, and that, he *explicitly* does not have the power to do. It's banned by the DPA! As usual with Trump, he's completely incompetent. This has zero chance of standing up in court.

I mean, geez, I don't want to give him ideas, but I could think of more effective ways to sling subsidies to the coal plants than the dumb ideas he's proposing. Stuff which actually would have a chance of standing up in court.

What I think Trump cares about is to be seen by the voters of Appalachia as "fighting for them" not necessarily slinging subsidies to coal companies.

The only policy I think Trump truly cares about is tariffs on foreign goods, not even services.

 

[Unpilot]

What I think Trump cares about is to be seen by the voters of Appalachia as "fighting for them" not necessarily slinging subsidies to coal companies.

The only thing I think Trump truly cares about is tariffs on foreign goods, not even services.

The only think trump cares about is the signing ceremony,the press coverage,the attention.

 

[Krugerrand]

That's exactly what "they" say about us...

But ‘we’re’ right and they aren’t.

 

[AZRI11]

Model 3 gets a fluffier rear seat to address comfort issues: First look at Tesla Model 3’s new backseat

Big thank to fluffer, you the bot.

 

[generalenthu]

Good read on the model 3 battery from Jack ricard. Comments are high quality too.

Tesla Model 3 - NextGen Battery - EVTV Motor Verks

 

[RobStark]

Good read on the model 3 battery from Jack ricard. Comments are high quality too.

Tesla Model 3 - NextGen Battery - EVTV Motor Verks

"And with all the hoopla about the Model 3, no one has ventured anything on this at all. What are they doing over at TeslaMotorsClub forums? I was aware they were kind of simple minded, but they do go on and on and on and I would think SOMEBODY would have actually looked under the hood or something."

Whenever I read or watch Jack Ricard it is like my paternal Grandfather has been reincarnated.

 

[2virgule5]

Good read on the model 3 battery from Jack ricard. Comments are high quality too.

Tesla Model 3 - NextGen Battery - EVTV Motor Verks

And we may soon get to the explanation of the ‘mason jar’ that Elon twitted about earlier today and that appears all over the car’s electronics.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Whenever I read or watch Jack Ricard it is like my paternal Grandfather has been reincarnated.

He’s my father-in-law, I swear it on a jar of SuperPeaches.