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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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And we may soon get to the explanation of the ‘mason jar’ that Elon twitted about earlier today and that appears all over the car’s electronics.

The "mason jar" that Jack Rickard of EVTV describes in the Model 3 electronics is clearly Battman (Battery Manager/Management/whatever). It's a battery with a cape. Hence also the various "Robin" references throughout the boards... Battman & Robin.

The only mason jar tweet I remember seeing recently is his comments on various mugs/glasses/etc (specifically mason jars with a handle or wine stem) causing him to lose faith in humanity.
 
Erich Sixt is the founder and owner of Sixt AG the rental car company that also operates in the US. Lately he gave an interview and said the usual FUD around, EVs are short in range, Cobalt is dirty and sold by warlords in Congo mined with child labour and EVs are bad for the carbon footprint and dirty as such.

Motley Fools stated that Sixt does partner with BMW since many years and that the rental company has the i3 but no Tesla Model. So their knowhow seems to come from BMW. They compare Teslas cars against BMWs i3 and that does not look good for BMW ....

Love it. Its in German though

Erich Sixt verkennt Elektorautos – weil er bei BMW und nicht bei Tesla kauft
 
Was not expecting this at all. Even adjusting for Elon-time this sounds very positive for reaching 5K/week target soon.

Its a smart move too. Once people test drive and sit in a PM3 it will be harder to go back to the AWD. I guess a lot of people will decide for the P who initially called it crazy expensive. Good for profits!
 
Erich Sixt is the founder and owner of Sixt AG the rental car company that also operates in the US. Lately he gave an interview and said the usual FUD around, EVs are short in range, Cobalt is dirty and sold by warlords in Congo mined with child labour and EVs are bad for the carbon footprint and dirty as such.

Motley Fools stated that Sixt does partner with BMW since many years and that the rental company has the i3 but no Tesla Model. So their knowhow seems to come from BMW. They compare Teslas cars against BMWs i3 and that does not look good for BMW ....

Love it. Its in German though

Erich Sixt verkennt Elektorautos – weil er bei BMW und nicht bei Tesla kauft
Didn’t read. I don’t want to register to read an article. Can you provide us with a summary?
 
Good read on the model 3 battery from Jack ricard. Comments are high quality too.

Tesla Model 3 - NextGen Battery - EVTV Motor Verks

I haven't finished reading but this is where I started laughing

In the Q1 Analysts call, Elon was a little short with a guy asking where the 450,000 orders stand. I initially also thought it odd but on reflection, he was actually very nice about it. They are all over him as to when he’ll be able to produce enough, WHILE Tesla car sales in China have ballooned in the last year to over $2 billion representing 19% of their total automotive revenues. Musk is staring down the maw of a monster trying to eat him if he doesn’t paddle faster producing cars and here is some freaking moron wanting to talk to him about DEMAND for a car that’s never been advertised anywhere and which he can’t possibly make enough of for about five years coming NO MATTER what he does or how well he does it. At some point irony begets absurdity and absurdity ventures into moronic chant, and that’s where he was in a very exasperating moment. I’m sorry Wall Street, but you’re going to have to up your game or sit this one out. It won’t be like you’ve never missed a big move in technology before.

I like the idea of demand so high Tesla can't make enough cars for at least the next 5 years. Does anyone disagree with Jack's assessment on demand?
 
I haven't finished reading but this is where I started laughing ...

I like the idea of demand so high Tesla can't make enough cars for at least the next 5 years. Does anyone disagree with Jack's assessment on demand?

Jack is 100% right. And his observation that Wall Street has missed technological trends in the past is also right. For proof, just look at IPO valuations of Apple, Microsoft, etc.

That article had me laughing out loud at a lot of passages. His videos might be long (they can only appeal to other hacker/inventers), but his articles are entertaining.
 
I haven't finished reading but this is where I started laughing

I like the idea of demand so high Tesla can't make enough cars for at least the next 5 years. Does anyone disagree with Jack's assessment on demand?
I agree. With M3, semi, MY, pickup, I think Tesla has more than enough demand in the next 5 years to build and sell whatever car/configuration that works best for Master Plan 2. After 5 years things can change drastically with Tesla Network, Boring. I think Elon will really enjoy the next 5-10 years. Once he gets billions upon billions of $ from M3, he will be like the proverbial kid in a candy store picking from all the things that he's been dreaming of doing.
 
The first I-Pace reviews are out and they show how difficult it will be for Jag without a working supercharger network http://www.motortrend.com/news/2019-jaguar-i-pace-review-london-to-berlin-electric-jag/

Have a read! Also the energy usage is extremely high, higher than an Tesla Model X which, with the lack of fast chargers makes the I Pace not feasible for long distance travel

There’s no way Jaggy can compete with Tesla when they’re outsouring so many parts from Magna Styre. And did I read that right, 240 miles max range?
 
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A challenge for the German Auto industry that has been overlooked. Its all about Gas cars (not Diesel)

  • Porsche did stop taking orders until September
  • BMW cannot deliver on some variants of the X5 and X7
  • VW has cancelled the Golf GTI
  • Mercedec - some variants are stopped as well
The reason for this is the new WLTD norm for emissions. Auto makers do not have enough time to get approval from authorities in order to sell the cars. It does sound like the issue is on both sides the Auto industry as well as the Government Authorities that creates lately some bigger pressure on Auto Makers.

Neue Normen für Benziner: Porsche versinkt im Abgasnebel - Bild 1 von 1
 
The first I-Pace reviews are out and they show how difficult it will be for Jag without a working supercharger network 2019 Jaguar I-Pace Review: From London to Berlin in an All-Electric Jag - Motor Trend

Have a read! Also the energy usage is extremely high, higher than an Tesla Model X which, with the lack of fast chargers makes the I Pace not feasible for long distance travel

I ddi read with interest another test about the iPace as well. My take away:

  • About 100k € average sales prices assumed - too high
  • Efficiency is still too low (average 19 - 30kw)- in particular if you compare to Tesla
  • 90 kw Batterie quite large for a distance of tested 300 - 400km
  • Charging Network still missing
  • Interior: pretty tight, people may like the conventional look, Display has issues
  • I always ask myself why the put a start button in..... You don't need that
  • Cargo space does not look compelling
  • Cobalt is an issue that drives me personally - I like avoiding human right conflicts like Congo
  • Charging times look very long to me, up to 14 hours on a normal house charger
Other tests about the iPace are very positive too but looking at the numbers they are clearly behind in my assessment. However the car may make more consumers think about an EV and Jag creates some pressure on the German OEMs as well

I am certain the car will sell but its not any kind of impressive development. So I expect limited numbers for people with money who for whatever reasons don't want a Tesla.

Tesla go home: Jaguar i-Pace im ersten Test
 
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There’s no way Jaggy can compete with Tesla when they’re outsouring so many parts from Magna Styre. And did I read that right, 240 miles max range?

I hope Jaguar isn’t trying to compete with Tesla— I hope they’re trying to compete with all the gas & diesel SUVs out there. Better to have both Jaguar & Tesla taking market share, rather than just Tesla.

As for Magna Steyr, I sometimes wonder why Tesla doesn’t outsource the bodies of the Model Y & Semi to Magna, and keep the drivetrains in house. I’m sure there are good reasons not to, but I’d love to see those vehicles come to market faster & without production hell. Of course, I’d also love for Tesla to just buy Magna.
 
I hope Jaguar isn’t trying to compete with Tesla— I hope they’re trying to compete with all the gas & diesel SUVs out there. Better to have both Jaguar & Tesla taking market share, rather than just Tesla.

As for Magna Steyr, I sometimes wonder why Tesla doesn’t outsource the bodies of the Model Y & Semi to Magna, and keep the drivetrains in house. I’m sure there are good reasons not to, but I’d love to see those vehicles come to market faster & without production hell. Of course, I’d also love for Tesla to just buy Magna.

Of course Jaguar is trying to directly compete with Tesla. Jaguar have comparison videos talking about the highest performance Teslas while drag racing lower performance Teslas. Not ICEv.

Magna Steyr would also have production hell in making 1M Model Y bodies per year. Eventually this is going to be Tesla's highest volume vehicle. Alien dreadnaught and all. You add value by doing difficult things not assembling other companies work.

Outsourcing Tesla Semi coaches is a good idea. This is just dumb man hours consuming work. Unless Tesla can get to really high volume like 300k plus units per year. That would offer opportunity to invest major CapEx in automating.

Magna International, parent company of Magna Steyr, has a market cap of $24B.
 
  • 90 kw Batterie quite large for a distance of tested 300 - 400k.
Tesla go home: Jaguar i-Pace im ersten Test

This.

I've been saying this since the specs came out and all the lazy jurnos went "ooh" an "a uh over a range that met Tesla's. "Look, this is what we've been saying all along: the big boys wake up, match the range and Tesla is done".

But little did they mention Jag needed a 90kWh battery to match Teslas 75 range. That's not just a red flag from a technology point of view, but from a profitability standpoint as well. With Pana/Tesla being the largest EV battery manufacturer, how can Jaguar match the cost/kWh buying lower volume from a smaller supplier? That would be a problem even if the packs had the same capacity and chemical mix, but Jag's is bigger and probably used several times the cobalt too.

And then we haven't even talked about the I-Pace being more of a Model 3 sized car with 5 seats, so really a Model Y competitor. On paper that's not necessarily a bad strategy, being the Y is still 2 years out. However for that it is overpriced and probably still not profitable.
 
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