General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

Amazing how folks have forgotten the discussion that went on right in this TMC forum several years ago, where the consensus was that it was eminently possible to make a profit from selling the excess Supercharger solar electricity back to the grid. Many superchargers outside of major population areas like California have very little traffic, maybe one or two cars per hour, while the sun is beating down the whole time, and the battery would get full pretty quickly.

Here's Elon in May 2013: Tesla Planning Grid Storage As Part Of Supercharger Expansion

There is a difference between profitable with selling excess energy (while charging for charging) and being self support purely on excess generation. (In the macro view, the extra will be powering the sites without solar).

With production going up 6x this year, those chargers are going to see more use. There is also the demand shift factor of preventing excess usage due to it being free vs home charging. If it is at parity with home charging, it will only be used by those on long travels or unable to have at home/ work charging. Also provide common price expectation of urban vs plaza chargers.

 

[kbM3]

Classic example of shorts applying linear thinking in an exponential situation:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/41...-mass-market-demand-using-regression-analysis

The basic shape of any histogram showing overall car sales volumes across prices would show that the cost-volume relationship is not a linear one.

If the writer is not doing it for FUD reasons, they appear to be a relatively smart person who just accepts what pops out of their algorithm, with no intuitive grasp of the underlying reality.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Amazing how folks have forgotten the discussion that went on right in this TMC forum several years ago, where the consensus was that it was eminently possible to make a profit from selling the excess Supercharger solar electricity back to the grid. Many superchargers outside of major population areas like California have very little traffic, maybe one or two cars per hour, while the sun is beating down the whole time, and the battery would get full pretty quickly.

Here's Elon in May 2013: Tesla Planning Grid Storage As Part Of Supercharger Expansion

Tarrifs and utility NEM plans have changed quite a bit since several years ago. AFAIK, if you try to sell excess solar back to utilities in CA, you'll get at most $0.04/kWh from the utility, if you get anything at all (as I said NEM plans have changed), while it costs you $0.10. Also CA Superchargers are BUSY, they aren't idle. Finally, if your question only relates to isolated, little traffic Superchargers in the middle of nowhere, maybe the answer is that it isn't worth Tesla's while to navigate the labyrinth of ever shifting local utility plans for something that might work for just a few years.

 

[gene]

Quick pleasant story. Some people not so easily swayed by the press. The woman who owns the little coffee shop I go to, says to me, "I do not know much about Tesla and Elon Musk, but I am from Argentina so I realize that since there is so much negative press about Elon Musk, he must be doing something really great!" I was pleased not to have to defend Elon and Tesla for a change. I gave her a ride in my Model 3, and of course, she LOVED it!

 

[Intl Professor]

Haven't seen this posted yet. Interesting to me, a novice investor, was learning there may be ways to predict future demand.

Tesla Model 3 Reservations - The Tip Of The Iceberg - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Backs up our more intuitive notions based on comparison of model sales, etc., since most of us have the same expectation about future demand for the M3 and the current luxury killers MS and MX.

 

[ggr]

The infrastructure isn't free. Tesla needs to get paid to recoup it's investment.

Also charging for charging ;-) can be used to regulate the use of a resource. Space at superchargers is still a finite resource. Tragedy of the commons - Wikipedia

 

[Paracelsus]

$1 Billion Queensland Wind Farm Has Received Approval

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/1-billion-queensland-wind-farm-has-received-approval-sally-mcpherson/

"The $1 billion project will see the construction of up to 195 turbines 150 kilometres south of Mackay at Clarke Creek. The massive wind farm has the potential to generate more than 800 megawatts of electricity. A solar farm has also been proposed alongside the wind farm."

will be interesting to see if storage is coupled to the wind and/or solar components of this new project

 

[Paracelsus]

And in other market news, Bayer acquires Monsanto - and the comments from CEO Werner Baumann might make you wonder if he worked at VW before starting at Bayer:

In half as many words this might read - "there is the potential to significantly increase shareholder value by accelerating the application of suspected carcinogens on the world's food supply while removing the name Monsanto from label". Please help me understand how he managed to insert the words 'healthy' and 'sustainable' into the same paragraph?

 

[kbM3]

Confirms what we already know except that the system did not delivery any warning at all (not even a late one). That last one is concerning and an obvious target of improvement.

At the shareholders meeting, in response to a question about automatic emergency braking, Elon said they are rolling out improvements soon, but they’re trying to walk that fine line of being a nuisance to often to be useful, vs. safety.

 

[sub]

Interesting article, hope its viable:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/562289/

 

[mongo]

Interesting article, hope its viable:

Climate Change Can Be Reversed by Turning Air Into Gasoline - The Atlantic

Nice potential source of fuel for jets and heavy machinery in the future after the refineries shutdown due to adoption of electric cars.
Chemically akin to SpaceX making methane from water and CO2.

 

[neroden]

Let's all do our share to rid the environment of bovine flatulence!

Believe it or not, bovine flatulence is partly caused by bad balances of bacteria in bovine digestive systems; cows with properly balanced microbiomes aren't flatulent. So get antibiotic-free meat. The antibiotics wreck the bacterial balance.

 

[neroden]

Reminds me of the talk when the iPhone came out. The huge market majority preferred physical keyboards because that's what was 'best' according to conventional wisdom. A decade later, physical keyboards are a tiny market on phones and the high-end devices are all touchscreen.

Physical full size keyboards are the best, but I guess people don't want to carry them around in their pockets. (As I type this on my desktop computer.) ;-)

 

[neroden]

I agree public companies shou

Agree, less than a year results should be optional

I am old enough to remember when companies were not required to file quarterly reports. When did this requirement start, anyway? It was nonexistent in the 1980s. It should be abolished.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I agree public companies shou

Agree, less than a year results should be optional

That isn’t what Buffet and Diamon said. They said management shouldn’t give quarterly guidance. They want quarterly results, but no need to give estimates of quarterly results. The reason is that it is awfully tempting to manage the company to make the numbers once you’ve given guidance. It is easy enough to rein in advertising spends or whatever to allow you to hit a number, but it may result is weaker long term performance.

 

[Zaxxon]

Physical full size keyboards are the best, but I guess people don't want to carry them around in their pockets. (As I type this on my desktop computer.) ;-)

For sure!

 

[defc0n]

Quick pleasant story. Some people not so easily swayed by the press. The woman who owns the little coffee shop I go to, says to me, "I do not know much about Tesla and Elon Musk, but I am from Argentina so I realize that since there is so much negative press about Elon Musk, he must be doing something really great!" I was pleased not to have to defend Elon and Tesla for a change. I gave her a ride in my Model 3, and of course, she LOVED it

... but did you get her number?

 

[defc0n]

At the shareholders meeting, in response to a question about automatic emergency braking, Elon said they are rolling out improvements soon, but they’re trying to walk that fine line of being a nuisance to often to be useful, vs. safety.

How I wish I could be a fly in the room when the developers talk about how they plan on addressing this type of issue.

Disclaimer: I’m a software dev (and glad I’m not in their shoes)

 

[RobStark]

Interesting article, hope its viable:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/562289/

Next, Dodge will advertise the Hellcat Demon is ecologically friendly transportation and runs on sustainable renewable fuel.

 

[RobStark]

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/results/

Conservatives win majority government in Ontario.

Well, kiss the $14k BEV rebate goodbye.

Liberals could lose official party status if they don't pick up at least one more seat.


PC
75
2,257,900 votes

NDP
39
1,877,258 votes

LIB
7
1,091,942 votes

GRN
1
257,553 votes