General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[sundaymorning]

Fine, it's a boneheaded question I now see. I hadn't put two and two together. Thank you to todd and yourself for politely replying. In my defense there are 10+ pages of content to go through each day now for every thread.

Sometimes we get bears/shorts pretending to post innocent questions that are obviously boneheaded. It’s hard to tell whether you were being honest or had ulterior motives.... posters who reply will sometimes get aggravated, don’t take it the wrong way. Hope this helps.

 

[dc_h]

OMG, what softball questions they are! Grant has practically gilded the stump for Montana Skeptic to wax on about. My favorite was his advice to "the engineer", who's a model 3 reservation holder, that he's essentially an unsecured creditor, and that Tesla has raised the price on the model 3. I'm sad for having wasted my time, but glad to hear that the shorts are nothing more than neck deep in their own narrative.

A friend just bought a new S. He was a three res holder and couldn’t wait. He has become a great ambassador during our high school grad party season. We talked with a Mercedes amg owner and wore him down on Tesla fear factor. Aren’t they going to keep losing money, is the car that good, what’s the big deal... Details like the car adjusts to a speed bump in his parking lot, as an example of their software advantage. The night before he took a Detroit hard core car guy out for a drive.. he was short tesla, but was very flummoxed after the ride and alt facts journey.
Anyhow, will be interesting how the world reacts with 5 times as many new Tesla’s getting delivered to thousands of new ambassadors next year versus last year.

 

[dc_h]

Lora koladny is trolling for hate again. She should have some angry x employee stories tomorrow. Ironically this guy was really upbeat, but I’m guessing she is looking for bad news again.

 

[sundaymorning]

Lora koladny is trolling for hate again. She should have some angry x employee stories tomorrow. Ironically this guy was really upbeat, but I’m guessing she is looking for bad news again. View attachment 309260

She’s just trying to make a dishonest living like the rest of the shorts. Afterall, she has bills to pay like the rest of us and can’t really find another storyline as hot as Tesla. Imagine if she was covering GM or Ford, her family might go hungry, so give the poor girl a break. She’s gotta do what she’s gotta do to put bread on the table while the rest of us here are enjoying the steak. Leaving some crumbs for her to pick on at this point is ok by me.

 

[dc_h]

She’s just trying to make a dishonest living like the rest of the shorts. Afterall, she has bills to pay like the rest of us and can’t really find another storyline as hot as Tesla. Imagine if she was covering GM or Ford, her family might go hungry, so give the poor girl a break. She’s gotta do what she’s gotta do to put bread on the table while the rest of us here are enjoying the steak. Leaving some crumbs for her to pick on at this point is ok by me.

She has missed all the Audi VW and Mercedes recalls and investigations and to my known, Network positive Tesla stories.

 

[22522]

Full Self Driving and Stock Valuation.

Elon was talking about driving to work and back as an early milestone.

If you look at Self Driving, there are two major value propositions:

1) low cost (more fully utilized capital) rentals (sharing economy) stuff
2) helping out the person who bought the car on routine routes that they have driven before - like Elon's first milestone.

You get margin, market share and stock price appreciation, even if you only do item 2.

Please ignore the low information stream below this line.
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Now to the safety model. Humans, this human, use(s) a 'difference engine' on routine routes to improve signal to noise.
I only see differences along the route. Anything that is the 'same as it ever was' isn't processed or remembered . Improving signal to noise is a key step toward reducing response time with no false triggers.

If hardware could subtract off all the stationary/static information on habitual routes, the car could focus on difference and motion. It would demonstrate a better safety record. Tesla started a program to filter out stationary landmarks like road signs with radar after the Florida truck run in. I think the goal was to generically filter less after selectively filtering the landmarks. Did that work out?

I also don't know if they are doing something like this to increase the frame rate on their camera (another way of saying filter less in the time domain). They have likely turned up the frame rate to meet some sort of Nyquist sampling rate on blinker turn signals. Faster computers help this. But I don't know if they are subtracting out of the background on a high speed video signal. The distortion of being in a moving vehicle with a wide angle lens seems almost impossible to deal with versus a stationary radar like, say, at an airport.

Maybe something could be done on just the center section of the camera sensor data, where the lens distortion is not so bad? The part near the path of the vehicle that you care most about.

Does anyone know if Tesla is doing anything with vision to subtract routine stationary objects so they don't have to be processed? If this works to improve signal to noise on a high data rate video stream, this will let the car trigger action with fewer false alarms. This means safer for everybody.

 

[22522]

I have now made enough money on Tesla stock in my 401K to purchase the base version. My delivery date for the base version is next year, so I will likely miss the full rebate.

Since I live paycheck to paycheck, a $36K car is a lot of money.

What is kind of odd is that the engineering of what is delivered in a real (non-fictional) vehicle... of just the part between the rear wheels... ABOVE THE SUSPENSION AND BATTERY PACK... is what is motivating the purchase.

This picture

and this picture

and this picture

Say something about listening to the customer (more than the corporate accountants) and keeping your word with actions.

The folks who worked rather than shirked on this part of the design are a key reason I am buying the car. Thank you Tesla employees.

 

[RubberToe]

She’s just trying to make a dishonest living like the rest of the shorts. Afterall, she has bills to pay like the rest of us and can’t really find another storyline as hot as Tesla. Imagine if she was covering GM or Ford, her family might go hungry, so give the poor girl a break. She’s gotta do what she’s gotta do to put bread on the table while the rest of us here are enjoying the steak. Leaving some crumbs for her to pick on at this point is ok by me.

Let them eat cake !

 

[kbM3]

I have now made enough money on Tesla stock in my 401K to purchase the base version. My delivery date for the base version is next year, so I will likely miss the full rebate.

Since I live paycheck to paycheck, a $36K car is a lot of money.

What is kind of odd is that the engineering of what is delivered in a real (non-fictional) vehicle... of just the part between the rear wheels... ABOVE THE SUSPENSION AND BATTERY PACK... is what is motivating the purchase.

This picture

View attachment 309355

and this pictureView attachment 309352

and this picture View attachment 309360

Say something about listening to the customer (more than the corporate accountants) and keeping your word with actions.

The folks who worked rather than shirked on this part of the design are a key reason I am buying the car. Thank you Tesla employees.

Congrats on the milestone

 

[Boomer19]

OMG, what softball questions they are! Grant has practically gilded the stump for Montana Skeptic to wax on about. My favorite was his advice to "the engineer", who's a model 3 reservation holder, that he's essentially an unsecured creditor, and that Tesla has raised the price on the model 3. I'm sad for having wasted my time, but glad to hear that the shorts are nothing more than neck deep in their own narrative.

didn’t even b

Incase you are a short basking in the sun of canceled Model 3 reservations. This is part of an email from my new dentist that Xena was excited to show off her stuff. They have a Model 3 reservation, as did we once upon a very long time ago

"Hi Bruce,
Thanks so much for spending time with Gary and me yesterday. Wow! You really have us thinking TESLA now! Your Model X is amazing. Too bad I was too nervous to go a little faster, but thanks for kicking it up for a short time. I don’t think the Model E will be enough for us."

After showing off our Model X, I thought back over the referral encouraging prospective buyers $1,000 off on the purchase of a new Model S or X, and it dawned on me it has been almost a year since I had that option to offer someone a thousand off and unlimited supercharging. Well shorts, that tells me that Tesla is selling so many Ss and Xs that they do not need to give away $1,000 at this time in the game. Fundamentals folks, fundamentals.

And, should you be counting the cancelled reservations (shorts); I personally was miffed that the money was returned onto my credit card instead of moving to the Left and resting on the balance sheet of what I had to eventually pay for our Model X. Counting the number of cancelled Model 3s on credit cards only tells you part of the story It does not include the back office deals or the cigar smoke filled room deals Thank my god they do not do that anymore

Xena is so excited about the SP lately that I my have to stop charging her in the garage ~ I am afraid she might break something with those magical Falcon Wings

...the way we interpreted it (the friends and myself that talk tesla and other tech) elon said himself in shrhldr meeting it’s still going to take 2 yrs to get through orders... he says that knowing about cancellations, and what’s on the horizon, as far as orders the public doesn’t know about. now add the fact that in the coming months the # of model 3s on the road is going to increase dramatically, and the word of mouth effect. the main reasons people cancel/aren’t ordering M3 are the wait, and price (for what’s currently available).
the first problem may start to fade in about 6 months. if the demand remains strong throughout this cycle, which i think it will,
(see previous comment about once these start hitting the roads in droves nationally), look out.
and yes, plenty of competition will arrive over the coming years, but tesla taking a chunk of share now is key. it doesn’t have to be tesla versus world, it just has to be enough to sustain growth and keep all their future plans on the table. the market should be big enough for that.

 

[Boomer19]

Slight decline in shorted stock on the graph S3 partners tweeted today Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter
but just scratching the tip of the iceberg, probably the tip-toeing of the more sane shorts before it comes to a real stampede.

She’s just trying to make a dishonest living like the rest of the shorts. Afterall, she has bills to pay like the rest of us and can’t really find another storyline as hot as Tesla. Imagine if she was covering GM or Ford, her family might go hungry, so give the poor girl a break. She’s gotta do what she’s gotta do to put bread on the table while the rest of us here are enjoying the steak. Leaving some crumbs for her to pick on at this point is ok by me.

disclaimer, this is total speculation and in no way meant to provoke riot.
yes, many of the news sites you see the women are writing negative articles. i have no stats to back up how many women versus men, and i’m not trying to get tarred and feathered for any misconstrued implications in writing this. for example, it seems dana hull’s tone changed. there are some on marketwatch that seemingly never wrote a positive article. but dana hull used to. possibly, she’s been more fair lately.

is it because of the way tesla handled jurvetson? did we ever actually find out what he did? maybe some of these reporters know what really went down, and are PO’ed that tesla didn’t fully remove him from board? just a thought, but might explain. i mean, that’s more than enough to p!ss anyone if he was really in the wrong. remember, this media lashing started way before elon scraping with analysts on q1 call, and his backlash of tweets at media. thx and hope no one is offended. i love women, and people in general. but dogs more.

 

[Boomer19]

disclaimer, this is total speculation and in no way meant to provoke riot.
yes, many of the news sites you see the women are writing negative articles. i have no stats to back up how many women versus men, and i’m not trying to get tarred and feathered for any misconstrued implications in writing this. for example, it seems dana hull’s tone changed. there are some on marketwatch that seemingly never wrote a positive article. but dana hull used to. possibly, she’s been more fair lately.

is it because of the way tesla handled jurvetson? did we ever actually find out what he did? maybe some of these reporters know what really went down, and are PO’ed that tesla didn’t fully remove him from board? just a thought, but might explain. i mean, that’s more than enough to p!ss anyone if he was really in the wrong. remember, this media lashing started way before elon scraping with analysts on q1 call, and his backlash of tweets at media. thx and hope no one is offended. i love women, and people in general. but dogs more.

when i said some on marketwatch i meant claudia assis, i know DH is at bloomberg. that just wasn’t typed correctly, sorry

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

many of the news sites you see the women are writing negative articles.
[...]
is it because of the way tesla handled jurvetson?
[...]
remember, this media lashing started way before elon scraping with analysts on q1 call, and his backlash of tweets at media.

I think you’ve identified something important, but I think it’s much broader than women & feminism. The more Tesla succeeeds, the more the UAW will try to unionize, and the more some on the left will dislike them for “union-busting.” The more valuable Tesla (and by extension, Musk) becomes, the more some on the left will dislike them/him because they think wealth is inherently immoral.

It’s an interesting dynamic. Tesla has to be respectful of these perspectives, while trying to persuade these elements of the left, but they can’t bow down to them.

 

[RobStark]

is it because of the way tesla handled jurvetson?

Does GM, Ford, or FCA get perfect scores from feminist on how they handle sexual harassment in the workplace?

 

[Unpilot]

I am a liberal ...but the "purity" test that seems to be all the rage on social media is in a word crazy!
I can support clean energy and be against the UAW.
I can understand that no company can be perfect in treating ALL employees not just women and not be a tarred as sexist.
The social signaling that is associated with terms like sexual harassment and union bashing need to be looked at in context.

 

[Lessmog]

Does GM, Ford, or FCA get perfect scores from feminist on how they handle sexual harassment in the workplace?

Maybe they cover some palms with silver grease?
Is that too Floridian?

 

[Mike Smith]

I think you’ve identified something important, but I think it’s much broader than women & feminism. The more Tesla succeeeds, the more the UAW will try to unionize, and the more some on the left will dislike them for “union-busting.” The more valuable Tesla (and by extension, Musk) becomes, the more some on the left will dislike them/him because they think wealth is inherently immoral.

It’s an interesting dynamic. Tesla has to be respectful of these perspectives, while trying to persuade these elements of the left, but they can’t bow down to them.

I think the UAW knows full well the Freemont employees don't want to unionize - their only objective is to damage Tesla for the benefit of their workers at GM and Ford, whose success largely depends on the failure of Tesla and EVs. I wouldn't be surprised if GM, Ford, and/or other interested parties are even helping fund the 'effort'.

They're also quite keen to see Tesla's hyper automation experiment fail. These attacks will continue until Tesla fails or becomes too strong to fail. I doubt they'll ever even call for a vote.

 

[Lessmog]

I think the UAW knows full well the Freemont employees don't want to unionize - their only objective is to damage Tesla for the benefit of their workers at GM and Ford, whose success largely depends on the failure of Tesla and EVs. I wouldn't be surprised if GM, Ford, and/or other interested parties are even helping fund the 'effort'.

They're also quite keen to see Tesla's hyper automation experiment fail. These attacks will continue until Tesla fails or becomes too strong to fail. I doubt they'll ever even call for a vote.

Didn't Elon say something like, OK, then, let's take a vote! Everybody has a strong suspicion how that would come out.

So, I think your hypothesis has a lot of merit: UAW has ulterior motives closer to home (Detroit, etc).

 

[BioSehnsucht]

UAW already threw NUMMI employees under the bus once before to try and keep things going for Detroit.

 

[Paracelsus]

We noticed the spelling on the 'Door' control screen for the driver's door was 'Diver' on our 100D Model X a couple days ago. Has anyone else noticed this? Is it another clue that the new Roadster will be submersible.........