RobStark
Well-Known Member
Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk can hammer out a deal in a month.
This is the City of Chicago we are talking about. 1 year would be speedy.
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Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk can hammer out a deal in a month.
This is the City of Chicago we are talking about. 1 year would be speedy.
GM/Cruise has been training their neural nets for a long time. Their underlying approach is the following:
(1) Identify all objects in sight, fixed and moving.
(2) Calculate their current trajectories, creating a model of moving things
(3) Attempt to identify what sort of things they are
(4) Attempt to extract additional information (like "That guy is giving hand signals telling me to go this way")
(5) Calculate a safe trajectory which won't hit anything (assuming everything keeps moving on the same trajectory, with some additional margin for error) and implement it.
They are using "deep learning training" for #1 and #3. I'm not quite sure how they're doing #2, but probably the same. They're probably doing the same for the specialized results they need for #4.
Humans are involved in (A) identfiying new situations which the AI needs to be trained on, (B) identifying additional information which must be extracted (like the aforementioned attempt to read hand signals), and (C) following the car around with a notepad in order to identify such situations
Note they did the test with a pretty empty battery. I would love to see the same test redone with a full battery. Is consumption really only 182 Wh/km since last charge ? I Wonder how much of that was at legit autobahn speed, thats less than 300 Wh/mile.
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No. They're pretty broad AI. This is the point I've been making for a very long time. The driving environment is *extremely uncontrolled* and a driving AI has to deal with all kinds of weird nonsense, like trees down across the road, sinkholes, airplanes landing on the freeway, etc. etc.
AlphaGo doesn't have to deal with the opponent surreptitiously moving pieces or knocking the game board over; that might be more comparable to a driving AI.
Yuri_G
Member
Sure, but narrow in the sense that the AI is still focused on a singular problem or task and not trying to approach or surpass human intelligence in a general sense.
I agree the autonomous driving problem is exponentially more complex than any game.
Battery cooling is not the issue with the Model S&X. The problem is the drive unit. Specifically the rotor, which is very hard to cool. The Model 3 doesn't use an induction motor for the rear, so it won't have any need to cool the rotor.
People that have taken Model 3s to the track have reported no thermal limiting even after several laps. (The biggest problem is that the stock brake pads just aren't up to the task, but the Model 3 P is supposed to come with better brakes.)
Try again. If you read the Securities Exchange Act, you'll find it says nothing about 10-Qs. It's in some subsequent regulation. Do your homework!
Yeah, when you read about the *next* generation of batteries... take it with a grain of salt. Don't be surprised if they're still using some cobalt.
But the 3% cobalt now, which is best of class, is good enough to remove cobalt supply as a worry. And I'm sure they'll reduce it further.
This is of course a quote from a major nickel-cobalt mining executive -- talking his book. Nothing wrong with that, but he is certainly not an expert.
Huh. This is pure speculation, mind you... but they do say it's good to spread out your purchases when buying a lot of stock in one company...
May 7th: $10 million
June 12th: $25 million
Maybe this isn't going to be the last purchase.
If Musk starts buying $15 million every month, it would be $90 million more by the end of the year. Or if he bought $20 million each month, it would be $120 million more.
I do estimate it would require buying $4.2 billion to cause a true short squeeze, rather than a mere short-covering rally, however.
Yeah. He ended up buying out the whole company (using Tesla). He's also talked repeatedly about how he would prefer if Tesla were privately held.
Is he going to pull a Henry Ford and buy out all of his minority shareholders -- that is, us -- for cash in a personal LBO?
I'd be disappointed.
I mean, I'd make a lot of money but I'd have to invest it somewhere else then.
skitown
Member
Yeah. He ended up buying out the whole company (using Tesla). He's also talked repeatedly about how he would prefer if Tesla were privately held.
Is he going to pull a Henry Ford and buy out all of his minority shareholders -- that is, us -- for cash in a personal LBO?
I'd be disappointed.
I could do some real research on leveraged buyouts, but... more fun to ask you!
What could such a scenario potentially look like in your mind? How would it happen, what kind of prices would you see minority investors being bought out at? Would be my first rodeo....Informative, but disappointing.
'Tobler bought a roof of around 2,000 square foot, with 40 percent of installed tiles solar. That costs around $50,000 once the federal solar Investment Tax Credit is factored in, and it produces around 9.85 kilowatts of power — which Tesla told Tobler was “the biggest system we have available.”
'“My understanding is that with the Tesla solar roof, we can’t get a system bigger than this anyway,” Tobler says.
'If you were dreaming of blowing all your cash on a super-powerful solar roof, you’ll have to think again. Not that it would have been a particularly wise investment.'
I am very disappointed, since I was dreaming of blowing a huge wad of cash on a super-powerful solar roof.
I guess I'll just have to get conventional solar panels instead. Surely Tesla should want the "As much solar as possible, money is no object" market? Hopefully they'll unveil the Solar Roof equivalent of the Roadster 2.0 soon...
Geez, I don't know. Basically Musk would have to borrow something in excess of 60 billion dollars. (That's assuming $360 stock price and no further dilution, so it would be even more than that.) I don't even know where he'd borrow it from, so it *sounds* implausible... but...I could do some real research on leveraged buyouts, but... more fun to ask you!
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Or get a deep pocketed buddy to back him in buying out the minority shareholders, and having a "new" Tesla that only has a half dozen or so shareholders (private!). I hear Warren's got a pile of cash and is looking for a good place to get it invested. And he does like the energy and transportation sectors....
My off-the-cuff guess is that a buyout offer is going to be closer to $800 than $400 if it were to happen this summer. Personally, I would probably still vote No to an offer of $800, but I wouldn't be surprised if enough of the minority shareholders would vote yes to an offer of $800 that I'd be selling as well.
Of course, if there WERE an offer to buy out all the shares at $800 each, the short shares would be in a world of hurt and likely be unable to escape at <$800 per share
Which would make a buyout at $800 unlikely to work as well.Since he already owns close to 30% of the shares, doesn't he really only need to buy out enough of the common stock to equal 50%+, so potentially only ~22% of $60B ... ~$13.5B?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
"As of May 7, 2018, Musk reportedly owned 33.6 million shares of Tesla"
The Top Tesla Shareholders
That is less than 20%. Plus a few more he recently purchased.
dc_h
Active Member
To equal all prior years requires doubling every 8 months.the rest ar
The rest of these are just ev’s Compliance cars for companies and consumers. Tesla’s are best is class cars, competing for 100 million in annual car sales. They might compete with Tesla, but they don’t compete against the rest of the market. This is what bears don’t get. One of the things bearsvdont get.
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