General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[hobbes]

Not all automakers are just waiting:
https://electrek.co/2018/06/14/rena...ccelerate-electric-vehicle-production-france/

Good for them. ZoE is becoming the quasi standard for EVs in Europe. Let´s see what happens once Model 3 arrives! Still, factor 2 in price...but also in performance I guess.

 

[gora321]

Not all automakers are just waiting:
Renault invests over $1 billion to accelerate electric vehicle production in France

Good for them. ZoE is becoming the quasi standard for EVs in Europe. Let´s see what happens once Model 3 arrives! Still, factor 2 in price...but also in performance I guess.

I'm driving a Renault and I must say that I'm disappointed with Renault-Nissan alliance. They invested couple of years ago 5 billions in EVs and they had dominance in sales figures comparing to other traditionalists. What have they done since then? Just bigger battery for Zoe and new Leaf. No new other models. Looks like experiment in which they do not believe? .....btw...zoe is a can when you close the door...it is not comparable to Model 3....and they lost all the advantage....they are comming with new models as the others

 

[Reality]

I'm driving a Renault and I must say that I'm disappointed with Renault-Nissan alliance. They invested couple of years ago 5 billions in EVs and they had dominance in sales figures comparing to other traditionalists. What have they done since then? Just bigger battery for Zoe and new Leaf. No new other models. Looks like experiment in which they do not believe? .....btw...zoe is a can when you close the door...it is not comparable to Model 3....and they lost all the advantage....they are comming with new models as the others

Some companies try to generate a profit when they invest money and that can lead to longer timelines than you might expect.

 

[gora321]

Some companies try to generate a profit when they invest money and that can lead to longer timelines than you might expect.

Good point. Tesla has IT cycle for everything and old automakers should improve a lot in cycles to lift it from 7 years (or small update after 3 years).

 

[scaesare]

Regarding this, I was wondering how many Jaguar I-Pace are planned... It seems a decent EV SUV and a possible competitor (competitor; not killer) of Model X, and I hope they will sell a few (a few; not too many ;-).
But I don't have a clue about how many there will be on the street, what's their production capacity.

On one of the I-Pace threads it was reported to be about ~20K/yr...

 

[Remus]

I think we should get some perspective. Leaf and Zoe are the most serious EV offerings on the market other than Tesla. We should applaud them for this. Tesla can not have and do not need total domination. Competition is great and Tesla is up for it. Most importantly the more EVs on the market quickly the quicker we will seen ubiquitous charging infrastructure which would benefit all EV producers.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I think we should get some perspective. Leaf and Zoe are the most serious EV offerings on the market other than Tesla. We should applaud them for this. Tesla can not have and do not need total domination. Competition is great and Tesla is up for it. Most importantly the more EVs on the market quickly the quicker we will seen ubiquitous charging infrastructure which would benefit all EV producers.

The Leaf, yes. The Zoe is more questionable. 31k sold in 2017 isn't particularly great. And it doesn't have DC fast charging.

If I would give credit to anyone beyond Tesla and Nissan, BAIC is probably it, with over 80k sales. The cars aren't that great, but at least they are cheap. Alternatively, Hyundai is doing great things. The Ioniq and Kona are fairly attractive cars. Fast charging, low energy consumption, affordable pricing and surprising amounts of features (like cooled seats!). But still relatively low volume. The BMW i3 could also be mentioned, and the GM Bolt.

Renault is pretty far down my list, basically.

 

[EarlyAdopter]

Hmmm. The Boring Company just won a multi-billion dollar contract to build and operate a high-speed line in Chicago. The Boring Company isn't public. Presumably it's largely (if not solely) owned by Elon. Does that mean he just got another channel through which he can generate a substantial amount of earnings for himself?

He's shown recently and in the past a willingness to plow his own wealth back into his companies. Could it be that he's planning on taking the earnings from The Boring Company and using them to back more TSLA stock purchases?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Hmmm. The Boring Company just won a multi-billion dollar contract to build and operate a high-speed line in Chicago. The Boring Company isn't public. Presumably it's largely (if not solely) owned by Elon. Does that mean he just got another channel through which he can generate a substantial amount of earnings for himself?

He's shown recently and in the past a willingness to plow his own wealth back into his companies. Could it be that he's planning on taking the earnings from The Boring Company and using them to back more TSLA stock purchases?

Startups usually eat money, not generate it.

 

[Etna]

Especially considering that The Boring Company has to also provide the financing for said multi-billion contract.

 

[Sean Wagner]

By the way, while we're on the subject of German EVs, I hope and I pray the Model 3 P will be "autobahnfest", meaning able to cruise over extended periods at higher speeds [100+ mph] on the Autobahn. As Elon Musk stated that it'll beat its competition in every respect, I take it that includes track times, hence hopefully also superior battery pack cooling.

The Porsche Mission-E [I'll shtick to that name for now] will open the doors wide for high-performance electric cars on the German market, and Tesla could really sell a bunch if the Model 3 P is designed to take local tastes into account.

A wagon version of the Model 3 for Europe would be a sales hit too, as outside the globally popular crossover and SUV segments, families and businesses prefer cars with that extra versatility.

 

[Boomer19]

Hmmm. The Boring Company just won a multi-billion dollar contract to build and operate a high-speed line in Chicago. The Boring Company isn't public. Presumably it's largely (if not solely) owned by Elon. Does that mean he just got another channel through which he can generate a substantial amount of earnings for himself?

He's shown recently and in the past a willingness to plow his own wealth back into his companies. Could it be that he's planning on taking the earnings from The Boring Company and using them to back more TSLA stock purchases?

i don’t get the connection, regarding using $ obtained from landing a boring company to buy tesla shares. how do you draw that conclusion? pls elaborate - thanks

 

[1101011]

...Could it be that he's planning on taking the earnings from The Boring Company and using them to back more TSLA stock purchases?

I would think that the earnings from Tesla will accrue prior to any earnings from the Boring Co. The Chicago adventure is to be funded entirely by the company.

 

[Curt Renz]

I would think that the earnings from Tesla will accrue prior to any earnings from the Boring Co. The Chicago adventure is to be funded entirely by the company.

The final deal would likely include the City of Chicago donating all of the underground real estate rights to the Boring Company. The latter would pay for the construction, equipment and operation. It would eventually receive the ticket revenues. Of course this is all still subject to negotiation, but that is broadly the way I see it playing out.

 

[RobStark]

Yes, it will be a while before the Boring Co generates income.

Negotiations between the Boring Co and Chicago is expected to take one year before final contracts are signed.

 

[Skryll]

I'm driving a Renault and I must say that I'm disappointed with Renault-Nissan alliance. They invested couple of years ago 5 billions in EVs and they had dominance in sales figures comparing to other traditionalists. What have they done since then? Just bigger battery for Zoe and new Leaf. No new other models. Looks like experiment in which they do not believe? .....btw...zoe is a can when you close the door...it is not comparable to Model 3....and they lost all the advantage....they are comming with new models as the others

I think it is a common problem of legacy carmakers, they make one car, like VW eGolf, BMW i3, Zoe, and then the next year it is the same old with maybe a marginally larger battery.

The 2018 eGolf is not that different from 2015 eGolf.

Tesla is rapidly innovating and refreshing everything, 2018 Model S is vastly more advanced than 2015 Model S. Just as Model 3 in 2020 will be vastly different than 2018.

 

[Skryll]

i don’t get the connection, regarding using $ obtained from landing a boring company to buy tesla shares. how do you draw that conclusion? pls elaborate - thanks

Boring capital will not buy tesla shares. However they can easily leverage tesla and spaceX R&D and buy massive amounts of product, i.e. motors for the sleighs from tesla, specially hardened alloys and/or machinery from spacex etc, which does contribute to tesla bottom line as well.

 

[jelloslug]

I think it is a common problem of legacy carmakers, they make one car, like VW eGolf, BMW i3, Zoe, and then the next year it is the same old with maybe a marginally larger battery.

The 2018 eGolf is not that different from 2015 eGolf.

Tesla is rapidly innovating and refreshing everything, 2018 Model S is vastly more advanced than 2015 Model S. Just as Model 3 in 2020 will be vastly different than 2018.

Even the '18 Model 3 is significantly different that the '17 Model 3.

 

[lklundin]

I hope and I pray the Model 3 P will be "autobahnfest", meaning able to cruise over extended periods at higher speeds [100+ mph] on the Autobahn. As Elon Musk stated that it'll beat its competition in every respect, I take it that includes track times, hence hopefully also superior battery pack cooling

"Autobahnfest" implies hours of driving at high speeds with just minutes of stops, something which the incumbent diesel ICE does _very_ well - as in 1000 km in six hours (in my own experience).

So in that regard I would not get my hopes up for the Model 3 P, battery cooling or not. It is simply a question of a still limited battery capacity versus the exorbitant consumption at high speeds.

It is not for nothing that the German ADAC's adamant stance on speed-limit free(*) sections of Autobahn has been likened to the NRA's stance on the right to bear arms in the USA.

So the German Autobahn is literally the last public driving environment where the BEV will dominate the ICE.

In my opinion.

(*) Conditions apply.

 

[Rarity]

Yes, it will be a while before the Boring Co generates income.

Negotiations between the Boring Co and Chicago is expected to take one year before final contracts are signed.

Rather, it is expected to take as little as a month, up to one year. Then it goes to the City Council for debate and approval.

Musk is borrowing against his Tesla and SpaceX shares to fund The Boring Company.