General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ValueAnalyst]

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

FUD intensifies during "quiet periods." Be extra critical of what you read and believe in the next 10 days.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I finally solved the key to making sense of BNEF's forecasts:

Just add a zero.

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[Reality]

I can't be the only one who thinks #shednaught is funny.


Also think about this before you attack me, if Musk said it you would agree

 

[avoigt]

The German media picked up on Elons twitter that he considers to build the EU GF in Germany near the France/Benelux Border.

Its a positive reporting and since a while they ask as we all do, where all the Batteries should come from for the EVs to be build in Germany.

What they get completely wrong though is that they just talk about batterie production in that context and completely miss that Tesla will from now on only build GFs that include Batterie & Car production in one. Its almost raw material in at one end and cars out on the other side. I believe that has been Fords dream as well including harvesting caoutchouc in the amazons area....?

The order of magnitude and impact in terms of workers, employees, managers and contractors will be huge for all three regions he mentioned. Thats a big story to report about with a lot of positive implications for Europe.

We talk here about large media organizations like ntv or Handeslblatt with thousand of people working for them and I ask myself how it can be that they get the simple facts wrong.

They could almost ask everybody here at TMC or ask at Reddit or just read Elons tweets or listen to the last Shareholder meeting to get that info.

This Media corporations claim to do decent profound research and control of information but its just kind of annoying to see for what kind of really low quality work people pay subscriptions or hard copies.

Tesla-Chef favorisiert deutschen Standort
Tesla: Elon Musk sieht Deutschland als Favorit für Batteriefabrik

 

[Thumper]

Porsche teaming up with Rimac. Probably a good move if they follow through.
Porsche buys stake, plans to partner with EV supercar maker Rimac

 

[mutle]

FUD intensifies during "quiet periods." Be extra critical of what you read and believe in the next 10 days.

I have observed the exact same thing happen in my years following $AAPL. Whenever there is a quiet period, suddenly you get all these supply chain checks which always point to significantly lower demand (in the mind of the analysts), but in the end it's pretty much always rising. Every cycle it's the same FUD, very similar to how it has been with every Tesla product where first it's "they will never be able to produce many", then it's "they will never be able to produce them profitably" and once that has happened the conversation shifts to lack of demand (which is very hard to prove or disprove in a short timeframe). Rinse and repeat.

 

[mutle]

Porsche teaming up with Rimac. Probably a good move if they follow through.
Porsche buys stake, plans to partner with EV supercar maker Rimac

Agreed. This is probably the best thing any of the ICE car company could have done to improve their EV know-how. Rimac is definitely no Faraday Future.

 

[dc_h]

The pictures (assuming that they indeed are very recent) don't exactly match the engineering miracle I had imagined based on the tweets Hopefully it will become one.

Looks like a work in progress and just getting started. GA3 sounds like most important line right now. GA4 could reduce pressure to shut down and update GA1 and 2 for needed updates.

 

[kbM3]

Great review on Model 3 specifically about driving dynamics.
Tesla Model 3 First Drive By Tech Forum - Watch Here

 

[DragonWatch]

Video about the Daimler EQ

Not that it has a lot of information included but there is one rather indirect information included that I find interesting.

Obviously 2 German Daimler Manager sitting in the car with a Journalist (?) and all the video long are blown away about the instant torch, silentness and acceleration.

What for us EV Heads is a normal its for them like experiencing a new world.

Why is that of interest to me?

Well, if you show your brand new and first EV to the wider public and have two people from your company in it that seem not to have any deeper experience really with EVs than it does indicate to me where the company as such is today.

It looks like they just begin to understand what all of this is about...

P.S. most people don't know that there was almost a standup at the HQ in Sindelfingen a while ago before an company meeting where the Unions together with Employees forced the Management to agree on an EV approach. Top Management did not want to do it and without the pressure from the workers I do not know where they would be today.

P.S.S. I am not impressed about the car I have to say. With all of the ICE producers now jumping in the same segment with somehow not impressive specs they may believe to have found an open flank at Tesla but jam together with many others in same price ranges without an answer on charging...

Thanks for the video and your take the managements take on EVs.

First, for my own re-education, I seem to recall from my nine years soldiering in Germany that unions by law had a representative on the corporation board. If they still have that seat, that would better explain the strength of unions in Germany. If unions never had a seat as I am remembering, then I should just go have cookies, milk and enjoy sitting on the deck I made my final flight home in January 1994.

Second, the approach to EVs is from mud baths by the tried and true fossil fuel auto industry. For me, comparing two soldiers now older going out for the morning run. One is a smoker from youth, the other never smoked. For the short range they can hang together somewhat, but eventually the nonsmoker pulls ahead without sight of the smoker friend ever again. Bottom line I am only seeing a halfhearted attempt to pick up and run against Tesla. Daimler and other car companies are playing catch-up instead of leading the pack. I remember during my last couple of years in Germany how traffic would build up with everyone backed up in the fast lane because faster moving traffic was to stay left for passing. I sheepishly drove at a slower speed in the slow lane for miles to the nearest exit, took a side road to our destination. Therefore, I left everyone in the fast lane pissed off at me while they enjoyed their time sitting still on the autobahn. If I am correct looking through my scratched and tired lenses, didn’t Daimler buy a Model S and backwards engineer it? Maybe it was VW. We did that with a soviet jet in the eighties

As I am sure you know from this board, and news ~ US auto manufacturers are equally slow on the EV up tic. I see that as Tesla’s biggest advantage followed by all the other forward thinking technologies.

 

[Brando]

Thanks for the video and your take the managements take on EVs.

First, for my own re-education, I seem to recall from my nine years soldiering in Germany that unions by law had a representative on the corporation board. If they still have that seat, that would better explain the strength of unions in Germany.

I think since 1976(?) in Germany with +50 employees they select 25% of the board and +2000 employees they select 50%.
Employees as assets and partners in the business vs Wall St. view of employees as simple liabilities.
There are of course more details and for a quick intro (with usual wikipedia shortcomings)
Co-determination - Wikipedia

side note: You'd suspect that most any college/university that teaches business & economics would include this knowledge.
QUESTION: are Deming and Marx mentioned at US universities?

 

[Starno]

NFLX is killing it since beginning of december.

 

[mikeywarka]

Does anyone know if the tent line is GA 3 or GA 4?

 

[mongo]

Does anyone know if the tent line is GA 3 or GA 4?

From inside pic, it is labeled GA4. What is unclear (at least to me) is whether Model 3 also has a GA1, or if that is for S/X. (4 total for the 3 line or only 3).

 

[MartinAustin]

Tesla sues former employee for allegedly stealing gigabytes of data, making false claims to media

(and the lawsuit PDF...)

https://sc.cnbcfm.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2018/06/20/Tripp.pdf

 

[mongo]

Tesla sues former employee for allegedly stealing gigabytes of data, making false claims to media

Some interesting bits:

Tripp also made false claims to the media about the information he stole. For example, Tripp claimed that punctured battery cells had been used in certain Model 3 vehicles even though no punctured cells were ever used in vehicles, batteries or otherwise. Tripp also vastly exaggerated the true amount and value of “scrap” material that Tesla generated during the manufacturing process, and falsely claimed that Tesla was delayed in bringing new manufacturing equipment online.

Tesla requests that the Court take affirmative action to protect its trade secrets, as set forth in 18 U.S.C. § 1836(b)(3)(A)(ii), including by ordering the inspection of Tripp’s computers, personal USB and electronic storage devices, email accounts, “cloud”-based storage accounts, and mobile phone call and message history to determine the extent to which Tesla trade secrets were wrongfully taken and/or disseminated to others.

 

[MartinAustin]

This is good for setting up a lot of the press as bandits. They gleefully printed articles conveying all this made-up stuff.

Of course they will have their hands in the air, claiming "hey, we're the victims here! We were handed defective materials!"

 

[dc_h]

Tesla sues former employee for allegedly stealing gigabytes of data, making false claims to media

(and the lawsuit PDF...)

https://sc.cnbcfm.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2018/06/20/Tripp.pdf

Wonder if Lora or other regulars have been subpoenaed yet? The scrap story is one of her leads.

 

[mongo]

Wonder if Lora or other regulars have been subpoenaed yet? The scrap story is one of her leads.

I read that as "this crap story"...

 

[Rarity]

Will be very interesting to see if he provided any information to short sellers. That could be very bad for them if he did.