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Or, most likely, Tesla is late on their timeline per usual with Elon giving the impression everything is ready to go while they are actually still far from finished. With AWD first deliveries not begin of July but rather end of Q3 and performance Q4.
Thoughts that may be repeats...
Tesla may not be required to differentiate D/P on the 3 because the P and AWD versions are physically the same drive unit, whereas for S/X the P and D motors are different sizes. Service can still determine type via full VIN. This also allows Tesla to convert Ds to Ps later as motor tech improves .
Requirements for digits 4-8 of the VIN per 565.15 Table 1
https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2017-title49-vol6/xml/CFR-2017-title49-vol6-part565.xml
It also means they could define 3P by reusing the P digit from S/X with the 3 model code thus creating unique 5 digit combination. But that is over optimising the VIN space (and runs counter to A/B digits)...
Or, they could delay notification of NHTSA if the performance of the P is unknown untill they build a sufficient quantity to baseline the sustainable motor power yeild.
Ok last theory: like the FCC, NHTSA may not post submitted documents immediately after receipt.
Daimler is stopping Diesel delivery.
They want to avoid that they have to go right away after customer delivery into the repair shop as they are not compliant. So dealers are not allowed to deliver.
This is due for some of the diesel versions not all.
In German: Daimler stoppt Auslieferungen
They want to avoid that they have to go right away after customer delivery into the repair shop as they are not compliant. So dealers are not allowed to deliver.
This is due for some of the diesel versions not all.
In German: Daimler stoppt Auslieferungen
Realization I just had. There is no VIN for Ludicrous on S/X, which was a performance boost of P (same DU). So no need for a VIN for P on 3 which is a performance boost of D (same DU).
Good thing gas tank/ pack size is not VIN reportable.
After seeing the struggle for 1 year to get to 5k/week, I'm skeptical about doubling that to 10k/week in 6 months.
Certainly being skeptical makes sense, but they have likely made the capital investments to get to that number. I think the more interesting question is if it is realistic to go beyond 600,000 vehicles a year out of Fremont.
They have added as much space around the original plant as they could purchase, but I assume they will add manufacturing some semi components in Fremont. It is essentially free to ship tesla semi components from Fremont to Sparks.
Further to your point. The struggle to 5k per week is a struggle for 10x the volume of December. Another 6 months will only be a 2x increase. Different parts of the line will exponential or linear difficulties in increasing volume. So some areas shouldn't be as difficult to double compared to 10x.
Looks like Andrea started a GoFundMe account to help pay for the factory workers lunches. I would chip in, but she has not provided the link. Man Twitter is useful....finding more things out by keeping up with Elon.
Andrea James on Twitter
Andrea James on Twitter
No link due to Tesla requesting her to hold off to avoid distraction at this point in time.
Since it is the weekend and this is the general discussion forum I'll add my thoughts on the short burn of the century.
Firstly, I think it is likely that some announcement is brewing. Elon buying more shares when he already has a monster options package suggests that there is going to be a hefty price increase in the not too distant future. Moreover, to count as the "sort burn of the century" I think the announcement has to push the share price up by a minimum of 25-30% to margin call a large enough number of the short positions to really burn and further increase the price.
Secondly, the announcement is not likely to be just hitting 5k model 3s per week. Too many people can see that we are close to that target to really put much upward pressure on the price. Even an upside on production or reservation numbers is unlikely to do this in just the remaining two weeks. I doubt enough people would believe Elon if he said he would be producing a significantly large number of 3s in a short enough period of time to really cause a short burn.
So the question is what can cause such a change? I think the announcement has to be one that underwrites the balance sheet in a way that the short thesis of bankruptcy becomes so impossible to the point of being absurd (although I think it's already absurd unless we see a huge shock to the financial system in the next 6-12 months). Here in no particular order are the possibilities I can think of...albeit many with low probability.
1) The German car makers have realised diesel is dead and they are in trouble. They don't have enough time to scale a battery alternative and one or more are turning to Tesla to be a supplier. This would lead to $10s of billions in supplier agreements and funding to build a gigafactory in Europe. Elon has recently tweeted about where he wants his euro factory, so there is potential for some movement here.
2) Same as 1 but replace Europe with China with construction work already underway for some time.
3) Energy storage agreements - Of all the products I think Tesla could ramp quickly, battery storage seem to be the most likely. Cell production appears to be working well and semi-automated pack production lines to be almost finalised. Combined with the recent reduction in cobalt as a supply/cost constraint there doesn't seem to be much of an issue duplicating the lines at the current gigafactory quickly. A multi GWh supply agreement with some utilities could be filled in relatively short order.
4) Partnership/acquisition with/of a truck manufacturer. Tesla has been testing their truck for quite a while now - they could have an agreement with an established truck manufacturer to roll out the vehicle faster than initially thought. Current manufacturing lines of competing truck manufacturers are likely to need less work to change to the Tesla semi. This would also feed into point 3 where battery and solar would be required in a large scale for the trucks and megachargers.
5) A purely financial move - Elon and a bunch of his rich mates have purchased enough options to take town the current share liquidity in the market and make short covering expensive. Surely Larry and Sergi could purchase 5% each. Possibly an attempt at taking Tesla private.
6) Dramatic increase in autonomous driving and a much quicker mover to the Tesla network. This seems unlikely as Elon doesn't seem to be the kind of person to withhold progress on this front. However a couple of hundred thousand vehicles starting to generate revenue for Tesla would have the desired effect.
7) Solar roof manufacturing has had a breakthrough and Tesla can produce far more than initially thought at a lower cost. Little has been said in this area, however I'm sure work is still being done. There is little concern around production materials - solar panels and glass are abundant. Sales could ramp quickly if there is supply. New rooves are being built every day and there is already a large workforce of roofers/electricians to install the product.
I'm interested to hear more on what others think could cause the short burn.
Firstly, I think it is likely that some announcement is brewing. Elon buying more shares when he already has a monster options package suggests that there is going to be a hefty price increase in the not too distant future. Moreover, to count as the "sort burn of the century" I think the announcement has to push the share price up by a minimum of 25-30% to margin call a large enough number of the short positions to really burn and further increase the price.
Secondly, the announcement is not likely to be just hitting 5k model 3s per week. Too many people can see that we are close to that target to really put much upward pressure on the price. Even an upside on production or reservation numbers is unlikely to do this in just the remaining two weeks. I doubt enough people would believe Elon if he said he would be producing a significantly large number of 3s in a short enough period of time to really cause a short burn.
So the question is what can cause such a change? I think the announcement has to be one that underwrites the balance sheet in a way that the short thesis of bankruptcy becomes so impossible to the point of being absurd (although I think it's already absurd unless we see a huge shock to the financial system in the next 6-12 months). Here in no particular order are the possibilities I can think of...albeit many with low probability.
1) The German car makers have realised diesel is dead and they are in trouble. They don't have enough time to scale a battery alternative and one or more are turning to Tesla to be a supplier. This would lead to $10s of billions in supplier agreements and funding to build a gigafactory in Europe. Elon has recently tweeted about where he wants his euro factory, so there is potential for some movement here.
2) Same as 1 but replace Europe with China with construction work already underway for some time.
3) Energy storage agreements - Of all the products I think Tesla could ramp quickly, battery storage seem to be the most likely. Cell production appears to be working well and semi-automated pack production lines to be almost finalised. Combined with the recent reduction in cobalt as a supply/cost constraint there doesn't seem to be much of an issue duplicating the lines at the current gigafactory quickly. A multi GWh supply agreement with some utilities could be filled in relatively short order.
4) Partnership/acquisition with/of a truck manufacturer. Tesla has been testing their truck for quite a while now - they could have an agreement with an established truck manufacturer to roll out the vehicle faster than initially thought. Current manufacturing lines of competing truck manufacturers are likely to need less work to change to the Tesla semi. This would also feed into point 3 where battery and solar would be required in a large scale for the trucks and megachargers.
5) A purely financial move - Elon and a bunch of his rich mates have purchased enough options to take town the current share liquidity in the market and make short covering expensive. Surely Larry and Sergi could purchase 5% each. Possibly an attempt at taking Tesla private.
6) Dramatic increase in autonomous driving and a much quicker mover to the Tesla network. This seems unlikely as Elon doesn't seem to be the kind of person to withhold progress on this front. However a couple of hundred thousand vehicles starting to generate revenue for Tesla would have the desired effect.
7) Solar roof manufacturing has had a breakthrough and Tesla can produce far more than initially thought at a lower cost. Little has been said in this area, however I'm sure work is still being done. There is little concern around production materials - solar panels and glass are abundant. Sales could ramp quickly if there is supply. New rooves are being built every day and there is already a large workforce of roofers/electricians to install the product.
I'm interested to hear more on what others think could cause the short burn.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
"Tesla starves workers in desperate attempt to produce cars! "
@CorneliusXX : Buffett JV to build out EV charging for trucks at the truck stop business he (BH) owns. Infusion of 5-10 billion.
I wish that was not a distinct possible headline. If the gofund me was implemented I am sure that or some variant would be all over the place.
The smell of desperation is almost palatable.
The next few weeks are going to be delicious I think.
Very interesting post, which should generate lots of feedback. Quick thoughts from a layperson
1) seems plausible.
2) also, but that’s a tough secret to keep, no?
3) at glance, market seems to not care about these, even though they have many projects. This will def change as profit margin increases. Then all of a sudden it’ll be about energy. One thing I would like explained to me, and persons like me...who know enough to smell the BS but not expert enough to do some of the number crunching in certain segments...GF capacity and % of that capacity needed for 300-400k cars, versus % available for battery storage projects. I know it’s simplistic view, but This would help me gauge as GF1 progresses (33% completed, another few years to be competed - also I realize the projected output has varied as they progress).
4) also cool, I think the partnership idea would be looked upon more favorably. It I think Tesla mindset would maybe not be as willing to do that?
5) would be sad if we weren’t able to trade it anymore, and it seems extremely unlikely, but given the amount of BS he has to put up with, wouldn’t surprise me if he did everything he could to go private. But realistically, isn’t it more likely he needs capital markets for expansion plans...then again, look at all the $ they can raise with BS coin offerings. He can just go that route hahah.
6) will get very interesting, but do we think regulation will change that rapidly?
7) very quiet here, almost nonexistent as far as MS media.
Look forward to this discussion
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