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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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To be fair the picture is the same and the user name is Elon with a zero instead of an O.
Okay, but Elon was never known for his involvement in *coins and I somehow doubt he would participate in something that wastes a lot of energy on something that in essence is ultra-speculative stock of nothingness.

And biggest red flag is post jumping out with utter non-sequitur in twitter thread. I don't even talk about content (last time I've seen lines like "pay x and we will return 3*x" was in... MMO).

I can see how it could fool some people, but for me it is so... obvious. :(
 
Seriously, i3? Less than 100 mile range? Suicide doors so that you can't drop off your kids at school? Bicycle tires that cost you arm and leg to buy? No fast charging capabilities=?

One of my friends has it and that was what I heard from him. Seriously the new leaf is much better than that piece of junk.

Here is a somewhat funny review of the i3

In the US at least, it is not a very good value compared to the Leaf and the Bolt.

To save others time, one of his base assumption is $35k model 3 won't be produced, Tesla will never be more than a luxury car builder thus will never be much bigger than BMW.

GIGO: Garbage In, Garbage Out

These analyses are only as good as the assumptions going in. Among good analyses there is some wiggle room because there are things that have to be guessed, like how fast is Tesla going to ramp up production, how fast are they going to get more factories built, etc. But Elon has always made every attempt to stick to his roadmap. His worst area is timing. The roadmap usually ends up being longer than he predicted, but the milestones rarely change.

From the beginning Tesla only aimed at the high end market to get established. Now that they have a beachhead in the high end, they will be reluctant to give it up, but Elon has always been clear they were only starting in the upper end because that was the best place to start with new technology that was initially going to be very expensive.

I think Elon would try to keep selling in the upper end of the market if possible, but if sales for the S and/or X started drying up, Tesla would quit making them and maybe switch to making some kind of small bus on the same platform. They are talking about a Model X based bus for the Chicago Boring project tunnel.

Elon's overall goal is to get the entire automotive industry to change over to sustainable vehicles and that means selling to the masses, not the elite. So assuming Tesla is going ot remain a premium brand is ignoring a lot of evidence to the contrary which in turn leads to bad analysis.
 
EM: Who likes short shorts? LOL

Elon Musk on Twitter

Edit: I'd say that's showing some confidence.

In the past when others have tried to infer from Elon’s tweets, I’ve not read into them, which turned out to be the right thing to do.

But I don’t know how to interpret this tweet in any way other than supreme confidence that goodness is about to happen...
 
To save others time, one of his base assumption is $35k model 3 won't be produced, Tesla will never be more than a luxury car builder thus will never be much bigger than BMW.
Well, the ones I saw today weren't the cheapest version, obviously, but today I saw 5-6 (lost count) Model 3s, versus 2 S (not counting mine) and 1 X. They're really getting out there.
 
To be fair the picture is the same and the user name is Elon with a zero instead of an O. I sometimes see replies in the twitter feed with replies akin to his actual replies and my first thought is that they are real.

speaking of which he appears to be saying Engineering is Magic.
Elon Musk on Twitter

It is magic, to use something from another thread as an example, if you go up a mountain with an EV and once at the top, you load it full of rocks, you are going to gain energy for the round trip by taking advantage of regen on your way down.
For anyone that doesn't understand the physics, it is magic.
 
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I think Damodaran is trying to fit Tesla into the existing auto industry box. But I don't know of any company of this size that has ever grown revenues 80%+. As we sit here today, Tesla is at something like a $20-$25 billion run rate and quickly ripping higher. He might be surprised at how fast metrics like revenue to invested capital can transform.

Aswath Damodaran updated his Tesla valuation. His views align pretty closely to mine.
 
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Yes, always look carefully at those usernames. They are *always* slight misspellings of Elon's username, but with the same avatar; to pass the sniff test. In other words, they're fake twitter accounts.
It saddens me that people even have to ask it. It is BLINDINGLY OBVIOUS scam.
Yeah the scary thing is it was on Musk's twitter feed and with 20m followers...
 
Yeah the scary thing is it was on Musk's twitter feed and with 20m followers...
Agreed. I hope Twitter can get a handle on these and delete them in the future. I read an article about them making another push into purging fake accounts, but am not seeing it now to provide a link. I for one don't think it's that easy to parse real from fake quickly. I'm sure it's confusing some folks (at best).
 
To be fair the picture is the same and the user name is Elon with a zero instead of an O. I sometimes see replies in the twitter feed with replies akin to his actual replies and my first thought is that they are real.

speaking of which he appears to be saying Engineering is Magic.
Elon Musk on Twitter
Look for the verified account icon

upload_2018-6-29_16-56-58.png
 
On the flip side I'm long and strong, but feel like the hurdle might be a bit too high to clear before the deadline. I'm reading a bit into his tweets also, and the scrap with the unicorn mug creator's daughter gave me a bit of pause. Sounds like Elon has been frustrated and who can blame him? I'm tempering expectations. I think they'll announce a run rate of 5k for a day, max and hit around the low 4000s for the week.
I tend to agree. The tweets drive me nuts because some read into them all things Tesla and TSLA.
"Engineering is magic" as an example: couldn't this just be related to Musk's quieter, also overachieving progeny; SpaceX? They just launched to ISS with dramatic imagery:

Dg2byPOUwAEhEux.jpg
 
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In the past when others have tried to infer from Elon’s tweets, I’ve not read into them, which turned out to be the right thing to do.

But I don’t know how to interpret this tweet in any way other than supreme confidence that goodness is about to happen...

I'm with you 100%. This one is quite hard to, um, ignore.

EM has certainly raised the stakes: This is make or break for his credibility.
 
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