There is strong evidence that your Canadian numbers are WAY off -- as in, they've delivered well over 3000 cars to Canada (maybe even 5000 or more). So your expected accuracy is very low on that. We know of 200 cars/day being delivered to Toronto for 2 weeks; reports of over 800 arriving in Vancouver over one week; and so on. (No reports from Montreal or Calgary. But there were reports from Toronto and Vancouver that "regular" service center deliveries continued and these mass deliveries were in addition to those)
The US deliveries may be much lower, due to Canadian redirection and stockpiling.
There is no way in hell they ran over 200K by a mere 15K, with the known drop in US deliveries, the mass shipments to Canada, documentation of stockpiling, and so forth. I would bet you on that.
