Too funny!
Although kind of sad. When they said a 40 hour work week would no longer be required in the future, I assumed they meant it would be less.
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Although kind of sad. When they said a 40 hour work week would no longer be required in the future, I assumed they meant it would be less.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
My Q2 2018 Estimates:
Predicting the 200K is really difficult because it turned into a close call. Initially, it looked like they would exceed 200K by 15K. However, Tesla dramatically lowered the deliveries in June. If you look at the table here, it shows 3472 US deliveries for June. In addition, insideEVs calculation is much closer to 200K than mine and they are known to over-estimate the number by 2-3%. I could be 96% accurate and still wrong. They might have managed to postpone 200K to Q3. It's a close call.
The actual numbers for the first 5 items on the list will be released by Tesla in a few days. I will measure the accuracy in percentage. I don't think Tesla will release the Model 3 US and Canada delivery numbers but I added those just in case they decided to release them.
- 27,443 Model 3 production in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 95%)
- 23,756 Model S+X production in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 92%)
- 15,814 Model 3 deliveries in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
- 11,269 Model S deliveries in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
- 9,674 Model X deliveries in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
- 14,512 Model 3 deliveries in the US in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
- 1,302 Model 3 deliveries in Canada in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
- 205,121 US sales at the end of Q2 2018. (Expected accuracy: 96%)
Predicting the 200K is really difficult because it turned into a close call. Initially, it looked like they would exceed 200K by 15K. However, Tesla dramatically lowered the deliveries in June. If you look at the table here, it shows 3472 US deliveries for June. In addition, insideEVs calculation is much closer to 200K than mine and they are known to over-estimate the number by 2-3%. I could be 96% accurate and still wrong. They might have managed to postpone 200K to Q3. It's a close call.
The actual numbers for the first 5 items on the list will be released by Tesla in a few days. I will measure the accuracy in percentage. I don't think Tesla will release the Model 3 US and Canada delivery numbers but I added those just in case they decided to release them.
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I don't think this was mentioned before, but if you try to place an order for the LR model 3, the estimated delivery is 3-5 months, and the price including incentives shows $7500 Federal credit. Tesla would not do this if it was going to get cut in half after Q3. Fwiw, they were very careful to not talk about the price of base model 3 with any Federal credit included. So I think they did push it out to Q3.
@generalenthu,
Predicting the 200K is really difficult because it turned into a close call. Initially, it looked like they would exceed 200K by 15K. However, Tesla dramatically lowered the deliveries in June. If you look at the table below, it shows 3472 US deliveries for June. In addition, insideEVs calculation is much closer to 200K than mine and they are known to over-estimate the number by 2-3%. I could be 96% accurate and still wrong. They might have managed to postpone 200K to Q3. It's a close call.
Not exactly. If you open the Delivery tab here (or see the screenshot here) there is a table that shows my exact US and Canada delivery estimates month by month. I estimate 1,302 deliveries in Canada in Q2.
Predicting the 200K is really difficult because it turned into a close call. Initially, it looked like they would exceed 200K by 15K. However, Tesla dramatically lowered the deliveries in June. If you look at the table below, it shows 3472 US deliveries for June. In addition, insideEVs calculation is much closer to 200K than mine and they are known to over-estimate the number by 2-3%. I could be 96% accurate and still wrong. They might have managed to postpone 200K to Q3. It's a close call.
Not exactly. If you open the Delivery tab here (or see the screenshot here) there is a table that shows my exact US and Canada delivery estimates month by month. I estimate 1,302 deliveries in Canada in Q2.
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Interesting projection for Canada. If you go the model 3 threads, Ontario customers were being told by staff that they were delivering up to 200 M3 daily at the International Center in Toronto for the first couple weeks of June.@generalenthu,
Predicting the 200K is really difficult because it turned into a close call. Initially, it looked like they would exceed 200K by 15K. However, Tesla dramatically lowered the deliveries in June. If you look at the table below, it shows 3472 US deliveries for June. In addition, insideEVs calculation is much closer to 200K than mine and they are known to over-estimate the number by 2-3%. I could be 96% accurate and still wrong. They might have managed to postpone 200K to Q3. It's a close call.
Not exactly. If you open the Delivery tab here, there is a table that shows my exact US and Canada delivery estimates month by month. Let me add a screenshot:
This information, if accurate, doesn't seem like it would be any kind of catalyst for the "short burn of the century". I don't know what Elon is telling us with all the Twitter trolling he's been doing the past few weeks but it has to be more than this? I dunno. All we have to go by now is tweets. It's like hanging on to the President's every tweet wondering who he's going to start a trade war with next.
I created the following spreadsheet to compare different estimates by forum members. I have read somewhere that the average estimate of a community is usually pretty accurate. About 1h 45min left until the survey closes for this quarter:
Spreadsheet: Q2 2018 Tesla production and delivery estimates
Google form: Click here to add your estimate by the end of today (30 June), Pacific Time
Spreadsheet: Q2 2018 Tesla production and delivery estimates
Google form: Click here to add your estimate by the end of today (30 June), Pacific Time
either way thanks for the work and insight.
Thanks Troy, thats helpful
Interestingly the median for the 3 of all estimates listed is almost in line with the Analysts expectation of 28k. I anticipate that this will not surprise nor create the short burn announced from Elon. As you said the weighted median calculations are normally within an error margin correct. If thats the case this time as well than we should expect other news to appear like the weekly production rate in the last week of June.
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StapleGun
Member
Thanks for the breakdown Troy, and I appreciate the confidence levels as well. I understand you are predicting over 200k because that is what your data says, but do you actually think they went over?
Personally I'm very confident they did not go over because if they did go over then several moves they made this quarter will make very little sense. Every other quarter in Tesla's history has included a huge end-of-quarter delivery push and it doesn't seem like we saw that this quarter in the US. It would just be way too bizarre for them to eke over the threshold.
Another thing to keep in mind is that it isn't necessarily 200k US deliveries, but 200k deliveries where the tax credit was claimed. I can think of several (albeit rare) scenarios where one would not claim the credit and I'd assume Tesla has access to that data. Off the top of my head - buyer does not owe any taxes, buyer dies before filing taxes, buyer is crazy rich and forgets/doesn't bother to file it. If a car is totalled and the insurance company replaces it with a new one that counts a delivery for Tesla but does the tax credit get claimed on the replacement? I can easily see there being 1000 US deliveries thus far where the credit was not claimed.
We have an interesting situation here because most people are actually estimating higher Model 3 deliveries than I do. If you look at the estimates here, I have the lowest Model 3 delivery estimate with 15,814 units in Q2. The median is 21,356 which is 5,542 units higher than my number. If most people are correct, that makes it more likely that they went over.
By the way, here is a quote about what counts towards the 200K. The data source is this page (scroll down and expand the Phaseout section).
Drumheller
Active Member
I don't have delivery estimates. I do, however, think Tesla would have held back deliveries in the USA to ensure the 200,000th is in Q3 so as to get the credit to as many customers as possible. I suspect cars were stockpiled and that is why we are seeing so many deliveries getting scheduled now, primarily with Model 3 LR PUP version.
Or it means most people expect higher levels of Canada deliveries than you do.
I actually have monthly estimates too. Let me add those just in case Tesla decides to mention them. It would be interesting to look back and compare them to the actual numbers.
Model 3 deliveries in Canada:
Model 3 deliveries in the US:
Model 3 Production:
Model 3 deliveries in Canada:
- 279 in May
- 1,023 in June
- Q2 2018 total = 1,302
Model 3 deliveries in the US:
- 4,830 April
- 6,210 May
- 3,472 June
- Q2 2018 total = 14,512
Model 3 Production:
- 7,962 April
- 8,127 May
- 11,354 June
- Q2 2018 total = 27,443
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I'm not sure. Have we read the same article? Yes a lot of good details on production, but the 3 workers interviewed just happened to be the 3 trying to unionize Tesla. This gave a general undertone of Fremont being this unsafe slave ship.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
HEADLINE Shortsville Times
Model 3 deliveries crash in June !
Boy writing "click bait" is more fun than going fishing.
Model 3 deliveries crash in June !
Boy writing "click bait" is more fun than going fishing.
I don't know guys, I actually thought Trip did a very bad job. Gordon kept throwing out incorrect and half true "facts" and Trip just kept going on about how numbers don't matter. That makes him look like a cult member. It would have been pretty easy to retort the FUD:
1, "Tesla burned 3.5Bn last year". I think it was like 2.2Bn
2, He could have pushed back on the burning money analogy. They have factories and hardware to show for not just expense
3, he could have also explained how you need to advance sales and service and supercharger investments in anticipation of 3-500k new cars you are putting on the road
4, he says they don't make money on the cars but later says they think Tesla had a 22% gross margin last year
5, the whole part about Elon predicting being cash flow positive in 2015 has to do with Model X and later Model 3 ramp issues both of which appear to be mostly resolved by now.
6, Missing half a million cars produced by a year has to do with trying to pull M3 ramp forward by 6-9 months which failed. Not ideal but hardly fundamental. They will still grow production by 2.5-3x this year and will double next year. Then new models go into production
7, clearly Tesla NEVER said they will grow S&X sales by 66%. S is segment leader in NA and EU. They have said repeatedly that they do not intend to invest in going above 100k on S+X except for efficiencies.
8, the Chevy Volt (sic!) came and took market share? ARE YOU EVEN AN ANALYST? There is no evidence of that in sales numbers plus once again different market segment. It's like saying the BMW 3 will come in and take Mercedes E or S sales. Absurd. If anything Model 3 is sucking the oxygen away from Bolt (and Volt)
9, we have the Audi e-tron? Really? Where is it? Do prototypes count now?
10, all those cars don't have the supercharger network plus their sales numbers are already dwarfed by M3. M3 quarterly production is now as much as some of those EV's annual.
And so on so forth. I realize he was on the spot and live, but I'm just typing this on my phone while cooking lunch on an open fire with the other hand...
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If Tesla has ducked the 200k lintel at this turn of half-year, that's not an issue since the tax credit stays for the current quarter as well as the next, so phase-out is only from Jan 1, 2019. At least that is my take.
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