General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Bloomberg on Monday regarding Elon's trip to Shanghai and possibly Beijing:

The chief executive officer also plans to visit Beijing on Wednesday and Thursday, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public.

It would be interesting to learn the results of any visit by Elon with officials in Beijing.

 

[mongo]

Recent tweet from Elon in response to asking about the P deliveries:

Should be very soon. We’ve already made around 100 Model 3 Performance cars for test drives in stores.

So we know that the GA4 "tent" hasn't been making all Ps... Are the rest AWD, or has it been making standard RWDs?

No reason GA4 could not also have made Ps that aren't for test drives...

 

[MartinAustin]

OK... more accurate sales figures, from InsideEVs and GoodCarBadCar.net. All cars in the USA in June:

Camry 28,215
Altima 26,956
Accord 26,726
Fusion 15,678
Malibu 14,089
Sonata 10,066
Optima 8,623
Prius 7,844
Charger 6,640
Model 3 6,062

So, unless I've done something wrong... the Model 3 is the #10 car in the USA right now. Of note:

• The Model 3 is outselling all vehicles, including SUVs, from BMW, Audi and Cadillac.
• The Model 3 is only outsold by one Mercedes, one Lexus, and one Acura. (all SUVs)
• When Model 3 production averages 10,000 per week, or 43,452 per month, it won't necessarily be at the top of the list - since not all cars will be delivered to the USA.

 

[GBleck]

Bloomberg on Monday regarding Elon's trip to Shanghai and possibly Beijing:

The chief executive officer also plans to visit Beijing on Wednesday and Thursday, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public.

It would be interesting to learn the results of any visit by Elon with officials in Beijing.

Perhaps more information on funding for GF3?

 

[defc0n]

Bloomberg on Monday regarding Elon's trip to Shanghai and possibly Beijing:

The chief executive officer also plans to visit Beijing on Wednesday and Thursday, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public.

It would be interesting to learn the results of any visit by Elon with officials in Beijing.

fine, you talked me back into it...

 

[elliott82]

Perhaps more information on funding for GF3?

Or GF4!

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Hi, everybody. I created some new charts about S/X production and delivery timing for North America and the data shows that Tesla is still trying to deliver as many cars as possible within the quarter they were produced. First I thought they are trying to maximize the delivery numbers for the quarter but that doesn't make any sense because if they don't deliver 5K cars this quarter, then those will be delivered the next quarter anyway. This way, they would have the exact same quarterly delivery numbers except for the first quarter they stop doing this.

It looks like, what they are actually trying to do is to deliver cars within the same quarter they were produced. This looks more like a balance sheet issue to me. I'm not sure what to make of it but I thought I would mention it here. The data source is the Model S/X Order Tracker spreadsheet.

How recently did Elon claim they changed from end of quarter rushing deliveries to trying to have more even deliveries (to help avoid logistics problems like they had in Norway, for example) ? Would such a change show up yet if it happened? Should we see a flatter graph, or could we see a similar graph but still have a difference in how they spread deliveries around?

 

[Off Shore]

How recently did Elon claim they changed from end of quarter rushing deliveries to trying to have more even deliveries (to help avoid logistics problems like they had in Norway, for example) ? Would such a change show up yet if it happened? Should we see a flatter graph, or could we see a similar graph but still have a difference in how they spread deliveries around?

If, as many suspect, Tesla rearranged deliveries to preserve the US federal tax credit as long as possible, that would have probably distorted the delivery cadence.

 

[Moderatefan]

So teslas goal is to make 1m cars in 2020

It's not their goal

Tesla expects to begin construction in the near future, after it gets the necessary government approvals. From there, the plant will take about two years to build and two to three more years to produce 500,000 vehicles a year.

 

[Troy]

How recently did Elon claim they changed from end of quarter rushing deliveries to trying to have more even deliveries (to help avoid logistics problems like they had in Norway, for example) ? Would such a change show up yet if it happened? Should we see a flatter graph, or could we see a similar graph but still have a difference in how they spread deliveries around?

He commented on that on 24 March 2018 here. However, they didn't change anything after that. Below the chart shows what happened in Q2 2018 in the US and Canada.

Currently, most of the production during the first half of the quarter is for Europe and Asia and most of the second half is for North America. Instead of splitting quarterly S/X production as 50% North America + 50% Elsewhere, they need to do 25% North America + 25% Elsewhere + 25% North America + 25% Elsewhere.

 

[MP3Mike]

He commented on that on 24 March 2018 here. However, they didn't change anything after that. Below the chart shows what happened in Q2 2018 in the US and Canada.

Really? They didn't change anything?

It sure seems like they did at least in Norway:

You can clearly see that rather than doing a huge burst in the last month of the quarter that they are now spreading the deliveries over the whole quarter. Sure it isn't perfectly even, but they did change how they were doing things.

 

[schonelucht]

You can clearly see that rather than doing a huge burst in the last month of the quarter that they are now spreading the deliveries over the whole quarter. Sure it isn't perfectly even, but they did change how they were doing things.

Correct for Q2, but Q3 looks like it's back to the old ways again with a significant smaller number of deliveries early in the quarter. Expect seeking alpha authors to make a lot of hay about 'falling deliveries' like they did in the first quarter based on the same pattern.

 

[RobStark]

Another objective article from the LA Times.

Tesla's China factory: Will it ever be built?

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Correct for Q2, but Q3 looks like it's back to the old ways again with a significant smaller number of deliveries early in the quarter. Expect seeking alpha authors to make a lot of hay about 'falling deliveries' like they did in the first quarter based on the same pattern.

Might this not be prioritizing US deliveries (vs Norway or anywhere else) as the 200K phaseout trigger gets hit for the US federal incentive, as opposed to going back to the old ways? (Granted, I'll expect it to be distorted every which way still)

Anywhere outside the US might see decreased deliveries for more than just the start of this quarter ...

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Question: which legacy automaker should Tesla buy, if any?

 

[skitown]

Question: which legacy automaker should Tesla buy, if any?

If our argument is that the legacy autos' baggage is one of their primary problems, then I'm not sure how buying one other than for factory space is all that great of an idea. Seems those same factories would ultimately be available for purchasing anyway..... Without the baggage. But this might be the tequila talking.

 

[roblab]

If our argument is that the legacy autos' baggage is one of their primary problems, then I'm not sure how buying one other than for factory space is all that great of an idea. Seems those same factories would ultimately be available for purchasing anyway..... Without the baggage. But this might be the tequila talking.

That's how they got the factory they're in.

 

[skitown]

That's how they got the factory they're in.

Yep. The tequila didn't let me down, it seems.

 

[skitown]

Boy-howdy isn't it fun needing to make borderline unnecessary 250 mile round trips in your Tesla when gas prices are around $4? I can't afford not to go to the big city right now!

 

[gene]

Boy-howdy isn't it fun needing to make borderline unnecessary 250 mile round trips in your Tesla when gas prices are around $4? I can't afford not to go to the big city right now!

Even more fun when you are literally driving on free sunshine as we have been for 5 years now.