General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[BioSehnsucht]

For the GF setup, does that matter? Tesla isn't buying cells from a separate external supplier, they are setting up supply chain to get raw materials to GF1 for Panasonic to use in Panasonic provided cell making machinery. If the machines work, where is the advantage in multiple suppliers? From a supplier point of view, all production is purchased so it would crazy to not work with Tesla (assuming a profitable sales price).

If the cells were externally sourced, then geographical or company diversification would be good to limit impact of a facility or corporate issue. With tooling in house, having two sections with two suppliers is no different than two sections with the same supplier (other than any supplier specific worker issues). If the contract allows Tesla takeover on Panasonic breach of deliveries, then Tesla is immune to most issues (other than the equipment getting repossessed? ).

The way GF is laid out, seems easy to simply say "This section is Panasonic, this section is Samsung, this ... ", with all getting an equal floor space. They could in theory try to leverage them against each other for better pricing for Tesla but that seems a risky and unnecessary move.

If they start expanding faster than any one cell manufacturer wants to invest though, perhaps then it makes sense. If Panasonic only is comfortable building out (making up numbers) 50GW/h a year, but they need to build out 100GW/h capacity, then perhaps lining up Samsung to take the other half makes sense. Even if Panasonic is 100% confident that the ROI is there, they may not have the cashflow / whatever to do so at some point, so hosting multiple suppliers can make sense simply from a scaling point of view.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I'm pretty sure that the cell formulation belongs to Tesla, not Panasonic. The only Panasonic IP is in the actual production of the cells.

As I understand if Tesla owns the IP, but what I don't know is if Panasonic has some partial ownership too since it was developed with them in mind to produce it. I know Panasonic can't sell Tesla cells to anyone else, but I don't know if Tesla can order Tesla cells from anyone else. Or perhaps just the manufacturing IP is enough that it could be an issue.

Hopefully Tesla owns it free and clear and can have it produced anywhere, and the mechanical / manufacturing side of things just don't matter.

 

[wdolson]

I'm pretty sure that the cell formulation belongs to Tesla, not Panasonic. The only Panasonic IP is in the actual production of the cells.

The cells that go into Tesla products are Tesla's IP and Tesla has had their own R&D unit for battery tech for some years. Tesla probably started with Panasonic's 18650 tech so Panasonic owns part of it and Tesla the other. Basically it binds the two companies together to a point it would be very expensive to buy out the other's tech.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Boy-howdy isn't it fun needing to make borderline unnecessary 250 mile round trips in your Tesla when gas prices are around $4? I can't afford not to go to the big city right now!

Of course your Tesla is depreciating at about $1/mile so your fuel cost is almost ignorable compared to that. $250/trip. Seems like overspending for "borderline unnecessary".

 

[elasalle]

Low... They need stamping press set up or else ship frames/ raw panels to assemble. Need to ramp all suppliers also. No excess capacity at Fremont, all 3 volume is directed to US due the tax credit, and lack of homologation.

They could start with S/X first... main thing is if they can create some temp solution to work around tariffs...
Added bonus will be that more staff can get trained in bulk with real world experience

Two years just seems too long ...

 

[lklundin]

Of course your Tesla is depreciating at about $1/mile so your fuel cost is almost ignorable compared to that. $250/trip. Seems like overspending for "borderline unnecessary".

I don't think it is useful to think like that of the vehicle depreciation. The moment you drive your new Tesla out from the delivery center, it depreciates by a double digit percentage and keeps losing value at a pretty steep pace for the first couple of years. Only after that does the depreciation flatten out.

Unless you own your Tesla as part of a business, the depreciation is only relevant if you want to sell it. And few probably want to do that (except when they upgrade to another Tesla).

 

[aubreymcfato]

Good news:
#Tesla registered 6,032 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 69601.
Source: Model 3 VINs on Twitter

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Good news:
#Tesla registered 6,032 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 69601.
Source: Model 3 VINs on Twitter

Is there a way of telling from the VIN if one is regular dual motor and one is a "P" version?

Dan

 

[Mich]

Is there a way of telling from the VIN if one is regular dual motor and one is a "P" version?

Dan

no

 

[JRP3]

Of course your Tesla is depreciating at about $1/mile so your fuel cost is almost ignorable compared to that. $250/trip. Seems like overspending for "borderline unnecessary".

So after 60k miles or so the car is worth zero?

 

[RubberToe]

For the Shanghai factory, Tesla can pull off the same thing they did with the Model 3. Have the Model Y unveiling, and announce that China will be building them first. Allow anyone in the world to reserve one for the usual $1,000 to $2,000 down, but also prioritize the first X thousand or hundred thousand to Chinese buyers.

Saves on shipping, and no reason to not allow all the Chinese to experience the event that will take place when Model Y reservations open up. Drone video of the reservation line snaking the entire length of the Great Wall will be priceless.

China is the world's largest auto market.

RT

 

[ls7corvete]

So after 60k miles or so the car is worth zero?

Ill take two please.

 

[dondy]

Something I found odd: Panasonic said they'd like to add funding to Nevada if requested by Tesla. They also said that maybe they'll work together with Tesla in China. Isn't that a little too vague? I'd expect them to discuss this directly with Tesla first. Could it be that Tesla will work without Panasonic in the future?

Tesla partner Panasonic will add funding to Gigafactory if needed, says exec
Japan's Panasonic says it could make batteries with Tesla in China

It can be translated as Tesla doing no offerings or new bonds this year. I wonder who is going to finance third gigafactory in USA. It's clear it will be some state money, pluse one max two companies but which? Any contenders?

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

It can be translated as Tesla doing no offerings or new bonds this year. I wonder who is going to finance third gigafactory in USA. It's clear it will be some state money, pluse one max two companies but which? Any contenders?

I suspect Tencent my be involved as this is right up their alley on types of investments they tend to take on.

 

[mongo]

I suspect Tencent my be involved as this is right up their alley on types of investments they tend to take on.

Hows this for a setup: Tencent/ Chinese government pre-purchase the first 100k units of production from GF3 at a discounted price...

(you can't spell Tencent without tent)

 

[Intl Professor]

It can be translated as Tesla doing no offerings or new bonds this year. I wonder who is going to finance third gigafactory in USA. It's clear it will be some state money, pluse one max two companies but which? Any contenders?

Rule out California. I vote for West Virginia, but then I'm somewhat political but raised a Christian. Negative: no seaport. Damn!

 

[electracity]

Hows this for a setup: Tencent/ Chinese government pre-purchase the first 100k units of production from GF3 at a discounted price...

(you can't spell Tencent without tent)

Partnering with 50 Cent would be a more popular choice.

 

[shootformoon]

Hows this for a setup: Tencent/ Chinese government pre-purchase the first 100k units of production from GF3 at a discounted price...

(you can't spell Tencent without tent)

I also have this idea. Or they can sell the options to buy the first 500k cars from it to Tencent for the $2B interest free 5 year loan. Then tencent can provide a priority customer list to tsla.

 

[Bet TSLA]

So after 60k miles or so the car is worth zero?

When I upgraded my S after almost 60K miles (3.3 years), I sold it for more than $60K less than it had cost me. By far the majority of the (non-3) Teslas out there are in this range and depreciating at about $1/mile. Obviously more when new and slowing down as they get older.

 

[neroden]

When I upgraded my S after almost 60K miles (3.3 years), I sold it for more than $60K less than it had cost me. By far the majority of the (non-3) Teslas out there are in this range and depreciating at about $1/mile. Obviously more when new and slowing down as they get older.

Huh? I check quotes for cars similar to mine on a regular basis. After 5 years, my $80000 car is down to being worth $40K-$50K.

The depreciation is front-loaded, but it really slows down. I should point out something important: options are, with very few exceptions, worthless. (This is normal for cars.) The only option which has held value is the larger battery. (S60s are worth about $10,000 less.) So you can basically write off all the options the day you buy the car. (I'm not sure about the old "tech package", since there were so few cars sold without it.) After you do that, I think the depreciation curve for base models with large batteries has been very good.

I think more of the depreciation is year-based and less is mile-based, unless you're over 100K miles. I'm just not seeing big differences between low-mileage and high-mileage cars.