General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[brian45011]

Moved from Market Action: TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

... you [Electracity] replied to Brian’s reply that included the lease and partnership agreement. They are partners. Tesla is obligated via a lease agreement to assure Panasonic an assured return on their investment...

I merely quoted in my post on that thread an excerpt from the 10Q that summarized the relationship.

It may be a partnership in the informal, lay sense in that both parties expect to benefit from the transaction. It is NOT a Partnership in the more formal, legal sense-- an essential element of which is a pre-defined sharing of profits and losses (any contract can be subsequently revised whenever the parties mutually agree.)

The Giga Factory Documents, (amending the Pricing Agreement and including as an exhibit the Factory Lease) explicitly state:

"The Parties are independent contractors under this Lease and no other relationship is intended, including a partnership, franchise, joint venture, agency, employer/employee, fiduciary, master/servant relationship, tenancy-in-common, joint tenancy, financing, or other special relationship, express or implied. Neither Party shall act in a manner that expresses or implies a relationship other than that of independent contractor, nor bind the other Party"
EX-10.1
​

The Pricing Agreement has a similar provision.

Panasonic has contracted for the return of and a return on its investments at GF-1. It's biggest risks appear to be (i) mis-pricing cells supplied to Tesla and (ii) a Tesla default (but the Factory Lease has protective remedies for Panasonic to minimize the consequences of that contingency.)

Tesla retains most of the risk, including market risk, but also most of the upside benefits.

​

 

[Boomer19]

so one can conclude that the cooperation effort has been more good than bad for both parties thus far.

what’s interesting is that panasonic asserted that they would like to further expand with tesla.

tesla has said nothing publicly. some say this may have something to do with the “memo” or maybe not. prob not worth speculating about at this time.

 

[30seconds]

This is such a dumb conversation. Panasonic is elated with being Tesla’s partner.

Japan's Panasonic says it could make batteries with Tesla in China

 

[dhrivnak]

What do you think are the chances of a big move (up) after this EC if it comes out as very positive ?

I'm still not sure that even if Elon reiterates that they're at 5k/w for the past 4 weeks, and increasing in the coming weeks. And that he reiterates cash flow+ and profits starting from this quarter. That this will equates to a significant move up.

I think the biggest thing to move the share price is several months of 20,000+ Model 3 sales.

 

[Starno]

I think the biggest thing to move the share price is several months of 20,000+ Model 3 sales.

I think this would be the logical path. Problem is TSLA never or very rarely is logical.

I think it'll either go up through a rumor (before official results are published) that Tesla is about to turn profits and cash flow positive.

Or through an "unexpected" event (after Tesla turn profits), such as solar roof tiles production ramping, or Model Y release date or etc.

 

[bdy0627]

I think this would be the logical path. Problem is TSLA never or very rarely is logical.

I think it'll either go up through a rumor (before official results are published) that Tesla is about to turn profits and cash flow positive.

Or through an "unexpected" event (after Tesla turn profits), such as solar roof tiles production ramping, or Model Y release date or etc.

So true. This is something you can almost always count on with TSLA. It's why many advise not to try to time it at all.

 

[goinfraftw]

I think Elon is being Elon and going on a major PR push in 2018.

Been tracking since February and it keeps on confirming along the way. With the Starman launch (February), Grimes (May), and "Pedo" (sigh) (July), I think there's something going on in terms of media coverage on various issues in the US/Worldwide, and Elon is either trying to take advantage of it or doing his own thing. Feel free to add the search term "pedo" to this Google Trends chart...I won't.

As @DaveT has mentioned in another thread, maybe this is Elon "taking control of the narrative"?

Note: I haven't done a multivariate analysis with Tesla's share price, but it might be worthwhile now. Once the shorts/media started their campaign last year, it became clear that Tesla's share price was going to be affected in a hedge-fund kind of way. This company should be trading at least at 2-2.5x higher by year end, if the market is accurate and corrects itself.

 

[gtrplyr1]

Elon is a visionary .... with regards to being a spokesperson ... not so much.

Love the guy but you have to know your strengths ... social media and controlling the narrative is not one for him.

Concentrate on innovation and execution ... the rest will eventually take care of itself.

Cheers to the longs

 

[EinSV]

Elon is the only corporate exec on the list of Top 100 followed Twitter accounts (unless you count Bill Gates, who focuses on his foundation work). He also has more followers than any company that is not in the media/entertainment/sports business. And a large number of his tweets and other statements get press attention -- he is a fascinating guy and his companies are doing amazing things. He has had a few miscues recently but he does bring a lot of positive attention to Tesla.

Find out who's not following you back on Twitter, Tumblr, & Pinterest. (no. 84 at time of posting)

 

[AlMc]

Mine has too, overall -- partly because nearly every person I've dealt with has been great -- but their communications are still, to put it politely, a mess.

If you get to the person who can actually deal with the problem, they're great, but it can be extremely hard to find that person, because whoever you talk to *doesn't know who it is* or *can't communicate with them*. Hmm. I've discussed some of it before; I'm *still* seeing the same communications problems from 2013. And they're kind of beyond basic; I found myself asking "do you actually have a corporate directory?!? you know, which says who's in charge of what?"

People with the busiest jobs and really busy locations or divisions need to have good secretaries to field and sort incoming calls. Secretaries also need to know enough to know how to dispatch issues to the correct person and who to dispatch them to. There don't seem to be any secretaries in most of the company. So when a particular employee or office is busy, phone calls and emails often don't get *answered*, which is awful. I've seen this sort of "communications" in other disorganized businesses, and it really is very damaging.

Totally agree and I feel it is getting worse, not better. I found 'that person' for the purchase of both model Ss. If she did not know the answer she took it upon herself to find out and got back to me with an answer. She was great and moved up within the organization quickly. Then she decided to get married, move and start a family...ugh. (only kidding: GOOD for her).

The problem now is finding that person. Tesla has grown so quickly and hired so quickly that you do get many people who don't follow up. I am sure some is their fault but MOST is Teslas IMO. Example: People frustrated with 'where's my car' deliveries. This is not rocket science. Once a VIN is assigned the location and status (in QC, on a truck/train and proximity to delivery center) should be known. An intern could set up a program accessible by every staff person with credentials to access the Tesla Computers. Whomever takes the call could answer this question. Service: Same thing: 'needs part'/location of needed part/estimate of time to get part should not be hard to computerize.

Flash forward 'today'. I have two 3s reserved. I have been called and emailed by several *different* people at my local point of sale about configuring. I have given each person the same answer. 'I am waiting to test drive a P3D' before making ANY decision.' That can not be added to my file within Tesla? Why have staff take time to ask a question that has already been answered 6x. (yes, 6 times).


This is a high tech company..right?

I am a TSLA bull. The above is constructive criticism/suggestion(s).

 

[JRP3]

Elon still having fun on twitter:

Think once, Tweet twice [do it]

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[MXWing]

Alright team! Taking delivery of a P Model 3 with P options and full software this week so that’s what a 50% gross margin vehicle for Tesla?

Let’s hope we end up with a short burn of the century.. otherwise I’ll be starting a gofundme for supercharging credits.

Need to stay warm while sleeping in it.

 

[aubreymcfato]

PR stunt aside (it must be awesome to have Elon deliver your car) I can't possibily see how this method of delivery can be sustainable or better.
Elon Musk on Twitter
Can someone tell me if I miss something here?

 

[AlMc]

PR stunt aside (it must be awesome to have Elon deliver your car) I can't possibily see how this method of delivery can be sustainable or better.
Elon Musk on Twitter
Can someone tell me if I miss something here?

I agree that the 'cool' factor is very high ( cooler if EM delivers but still cool without him) but from a practical business standpoint I don't see it.

 

[mongo]

PR stunt aside (it must be awesome to have Elon deliver your car) I can't possibily see how this method of delivery can be sustainable or better.
Elon Musk on Twitter
Can someone tell me if I miss something here?

Normal process:
Load car on multi-transport at Fremont
Unload car at holding lot
Load car on multi-transport at holding lot
Unload car at delivery center
Clear car
Buyer shows up
Handle buyer at delivery center plus everyone else

vs

Load car on single carrier at Fremont
Unload at buyer's location
Walk through car features

Good for local deliveries, more convenient for buyer.
Less steps/ risk of damage
Faster point to point, no need for secondary cleaning
Faster receipt of payment, good for cash flow

 

[Todd Burch]

Tesla needs to make a few more of their semis and start using them for transport instead of hiring an outside logistics company. That should drop costs further as well.

 

[Remus]

Normal process:
Load car on multi-transport at Fremont
Unload car at holding lot
Load car on multi-transport at holding lot
Unload car at delivery center
Clear car
Buyer shows up
Handle buyer at delivery center plus everyone else

vs

Load car on single carrier at Fremont
Unload at buyer's location
Walk through car features

Good for local deliveries, more convenient for buyer.
Less steps/ risk of damage
Faster point to point, no need for secondary cleaning
Faster receipt of payment, good for cash flow

It's definitely more convenient for buyers, but the delivery personnel must sit in the truck while driving to and from buyers home. And you still have to make an appointment with the buyer, and you have to be on time. Logistic planning for that is very challenging and you probably end up using a 'buffer' somewhere, negating all the benefits.

 

[mongo]

It's definitely more convenient for buyers, but the delivery personnel must sit in the truck while driving to and from buyers home. And you still have to make an appointment with the buyer, and you have to be on time. Logistic planning for that is very challenging and you probably end up using a 'buffer' somewhere, negating all the benefits.

Deliver to their workplace (less timing requirements) and operate in parallel with ranger service. Still a niche option, for sure.

 

[LordAstinus]

PR stunt aside (it must be awesome to have Elon deliver your car) I can't possibily see how this method of delivery can be sustainable or better.
Elon Musk on Twitter
Can someone tell me if I miss something here?

I don't think they pretend it to be sustainable. IMO, it's probably meant to work only for deliveries close to Fremont (several dozen miles around it). And the idea would be to help reduce the current delivery pressure around service centers. They are having temporary logistic issues (with the trucks, for example). I don't think they can deliver much more than 1K / week using this method (being optimistic).

Once they sort it out, they may keep it as an option or additional service.

This is only my opinion, not based on facts.

 

[avoigt]

Refresh for S and X in Q3 2019.

Interestingly given the interior pictures both will get a 3-like design. Thats will reduce costs due to less parts and reduced assembly complexity. Good for automation and margin for sure.

OTOH people who are more used to and like the traditional interior design may shrug back. My prediction is the the "younger" generation will be more adaptive to the spartan design or even tempted to move to the S if budget permits instead of the 3.

Beside people like me who feel like less is more if we talk about interior and intuitive usage of a car Tesla takes an option from the table for more traditional people. Its a sign of strong demand and confidence. The new S and X will be kind of different cars as it looks like you have again a large screen to manage all options only.

Finally its interesting that they release that information now a year ahead. That gives people an option to plan ahead buy an S or X in the next 12 months but maybe demand will go down from completely crazy to just mad. Assuming some more cool interior will be included the premium models will differentiate nicely to the 3 and thats how it supposed to be for a premium car.

Looking at the costs side I believe that will give the S and X a new cool factor and improved margin in a significant way.

Also as its a more autonomous interior it gives a vote of confidence that FSD despite us having not heard a lot lately will be released hopefully next year.

Exclusive first look at Tesla Model S and Model X interior refresh: going spartan like Model 3