General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

Totally agree and I feel it is getting worse, not better. I found 'that person' for the purchase of both model Ss. If she did not know the answer she took it upon herself to find out and got back to me with an answer. She was great and moved up within the organization quickly. Then she decided to get married, move and start a family...ugh. (only kidding: GOOD for her).

The problem now is finding that person. Tesla has grown so quickly and hired so quickly that you do get many people who don't follow up. I am sure some is their fault but MOST is Teslas IMO. Example: People frustrated with 'where's my car' deliveries. This is not rocket science. Once a VIN is assigned the location and status (in QC, on a truck/train and proximity to delivery center) should be known. An intern could set up a program accessible by every staff person with credentials to access the Tesla Computers. Whomever takes the call could answer this question. Service: Same thing: 'needs part'/location of needed part/estimate of time to get part should not be hard to computerize.

Flash forward 'today'. I have two 3s reserved. I have been called and emailed by several *different* people at my local point of sale about configuring. I have given each person the same answer. 'I am waiting to test drive a P3D' before making ANY decision.' That can not be added to my file within Tesla? Why have staff take time to ask a question that has already been answered 6x. (yes, 6 times).


This is a high tech company..right?

I am a TSLA bull. The above is constructive criticism/suggestion(s).

I think this is the biggest single problem for Tesla. It will become a serious issue for sales &/or pricing if it isn't fixed by the time other companies are *mass producing* EVs.

Hilariously, all the other companies are *still* not planning to mass produce EVs... I keep a close eye on planned production numbers from the so-called competition and they're still pathetic. Tesla's going to be producing over 1/3 of the BEVs+PHEVs in the world next year, and well over half of the long-range pure-BEVs, and that's probably going to continue in 2020. The only companies which might ramp up by then are BAIC, BYD, and Nissan, and the evidence is against all three doing so.

My investment thesis for Tesla is largely based on the ineffectualness of the would-be competitors.

 

[neroden]

Refresh for S and X in Q3 2019.

Interestingly given the interior pictures both will get a 3-like design. Thats will reduce costs due to less parts and reduced assembly complexity. Good for automation and margin for sure.

I would say it will reduce production costs. I'll betcha they're going to apply the Model 3 wiring harness simplifications, since those are known to be a major source of cost reduction.

Whether it will increase margin... well, that depends. Tesla *could* choose to cut the price and increase production instead. (There is some evidence that the S market is saturated at the current base price, but drop it even $5000 and the market will increase massively.) If process simplifications allow the line to be sped up, that might make a lot of sense.

OTOH people who are more used to and like the traditional interior design may shrug back.[/quote]
I expect a rush of orders for the "old" design before it goes away, which is a fine thing. Some people like the old, some like the new, both will order.

 

[mickificki]

I wonder if the going spartan in M S and X is also an indication that tesla is confident that autopilot and FSD is progressing well enough that the speedometer screen behind the steering wheel isn’t needed.

That would be huge.

I would say it will reduce production costs. I'll betcha they're going to apply the Model 3 wiring harness simplifications, since those are known to be a major source of cost reduction.

Whether it will increase margin... well, that depends. Tesla *could* choose to cut the price and increase production instead. (There is some evidence that the S market is saturated at the current base price, but drop it even $5000 and the market will increase massively.) If process simplifications allow the line to be sped up, that might make a lot of sense.

OTOH people who are more used to and like the traditional interior design may shrug back.

I expect a rush of orders for the "old" design before it goes away, which is a fine thing. Some people like the old, some like the new, both will order.[/QUOTE]

 

[neroden]

I wonder if the going spartan in M S and X is also an indication that tesla is confident that autopilot and FSD is progressing well enough that the speedometer screen behind the steering wheel isn’t needed.

I would say definitely not.

The Model 3 A/C vent design is flat out better than the Model S design; the single-screen design is cheaper; they really want to upgrade to the much cheaper Model 3 electronics/cabling design, since it'll save a fortune on production costs. I would predict that these are the main drivers behind the "refresh". I would be unsurprised if they also switch over to 2170 packs at the same time. They'll probably have the much-desired coathooks and handles, too

 

[Boomer19]

Goldman Sachs Data Points to Potential Waning Customer Enthusiasm for Tesla (TSLA) Model 3

yeah, so we’ll see how this “analysis” regarding model 3 enthusiasm holds up

 

[ggies07]

Goldman Sachs Data Points to Potential Waning Customer Enthusiasm for Tesla (TSLA) Model 3

yeah, so we’ll see how this “analysis” regarding model 3 enthusiasm holds up

Not taking into account of all the FUD, has my personal enthusiasm for the car dropped? yeah, because I've been pushed back so many times (and I'm sure there are lots of people out there like me...just waiting). I'm going on a test drive Friday just so I can drive the damn thing, if only for a moment.

 

[Boomer19]

I'm going on a test drive Friday

your frustration is well documented
have fun! i didn’t test drive one yet myself

 

[JRP3]

I wonder if the going spartan in M S and X is also an indication that tesla is confident that autopilot and FSD is progressing well enough that the speedometer screen behind the steering wheel isn’t needed.

That would be huge.

One pic does show a screen

 

[jelloslug]

Goldman Sachs Data Points to Potential Waning Customer Enthusiasm for Tesla (TSLA) Model 3

yeah, so we’ll see how this “analysis” regarding model 3 enthusiasm holds up

What I don't get about all this talk about "waning enthusiasm" and "dropping reservations" is that fact that we are talking about how many months/years it will take to make every car than has a paid reservation, not making cars to sit on a lot with the hope that they will sell.

 

[neroden]

They're measuring noise on social media. :eyeroll:

 

[techmaven]

And now... we have news of a delay in NMC 811 cells from SKI:

SK innovation postpones the release of EV NCM 811 battery cells - Push EVs

As you can see, the NMC 811 cells are the ones that VW Group is hoping to use for the Porsche Taycan. Here's a Umicore presentation on the state of NMC from January, 2017:

http://cii-resource.com/cet/AABE-03-17/Presentations/BTMT/Levasseur_Stephane.pdf

You can see the high cell degradation around NMC 811, but also achieving ~270 Wh/kg with high silicon in the anode content. That's likely the cell chemistry that has to deliver to make the Taycan a reality. Tesla is already delivering such cells in the Model 3, but with less cell degradation (as seen in the real world). It's today for Tesla, maybe sometime in late 2019 or early 2020 for the leading edge of everyone else.

Decreasing cobalt usage while increasing silicon in the anode is really tough to also maintain good cell degradation characteristics. For Tesla to achieve leap frogging NMC 811 in terms of lower cobalt usage and still get good cell degradation (from early reports) while charging at 1.47C peak rate is quite impressive. Plus, Tesla is doing this at volume - at the highest volume available to any single manufacturer today, and if you compare just NMC 622 and NMC 811, both competitive cell chemistries versus Tesla's capacity, Tesla likely has the highest cell production volume at the lowest price at the highest specific energy. Of course, higher specific energy can help a lot with cell costs.

Pointing to capacity of LiFePO4 is just not relevant to Tesla (most of China's production capacity). Pointing to capacity to make NMC 111 is just not relevant. While Tesla is already delivering high capacity packs with great specific energy, charging characteristics and with high volume, everyone else has to wait for the new cells to ship hopefully sometime in 2019 or early 2020. In the meantime, we have charging c-rate limited packs from GM, Nissan, and others that have shipped NMC 622 but refuse to let them charge much above 1C.

 

[Rammstein]

I was just talking with a buddy and he was saying that gasoline cars will have better acceleration when it is up to speed then an electric car. He was saying a BMW M3 could probably accelerate faster from 50 miles/hr to 75 miles/hr then the performance Model 3. Do you guys have any information on this?

 

[avoigt]

Love to see progress on GFs. We need more of those. Tesla should be bold and make next steps disregarding stupid analysts who don't get that market cap and financing is not an issue (any more).

In terms of skilled resources Germany is indeed a good choice but looking how the industry and politics that is influences by them makes live hard for Tesla already today e.g. SC, EV Bonus ect. they would just settle in the middle of the battle ground.

OTOH .... why not?! If you know you have to go to battle anyhow you better pick the battle ground yourself.

“[Tesla has] preliminary discussions with two German states vying to host a so-called Gigafactory in Europe to build electric cars and their batteries under one roof, officials involved in the talks said." (...)

“Germany is a leading choice for Europe. Perhaps on the German-French border makes sense, near the Benelux countries.”

Tesla is reportedly in talks with Germany and Netherlands for Gigafactory 4
Tesla's Europe Gigafactory in discussion with Germany, Netherlands: report

 

[Dwdnjck]

your frustration is well documented
have fun! i didn’t test drive one yet myself

I test drove mine home after taking delivery.

 

[jelloslug]

I was just talking with a buddy and he was saying that gasoline cars will have better acceleration when it is up to speed then an electric car. He was saying a BMW M3 could probably accelerate faster from 50 miles/hr to 75 miles/hr then the performance Model 3. Do you guys have any information on this?

I could not find the info for the P3D, but the Model S P100D has a published passing speed for 45 to 65 of 1.2 seconds. The 2016 M3 w/ the Competition package was tested by Car and Driver to have a 30 to 50 speed of 2.2 seconds and a 50 to 70 speed of 2.8 seconds. Based off of those numbers, I would say that the Performance Model 3 will still be quicker at the passing speed test.

 

[techmaven]

Sigh... I belatedly realized my recent posts really belong in the other main investment thread. @AudubonB, will you move them? I started by responding to tftf's posts here and I haven't been posting in TMC as much recently, so I forgot about the split. My posts aren't really about market action.

Mod: no problem. Moved here as requested. Thanks for your consideration. --ggr.

 

[Skryll]

I was just talking with a buddy and he was saying that gasoline cars will have better acceleration when it is up to speed then an electric car. He was saying a BMW M3 could probably accelerate faster from 50 miles/hr to 75 miles/hr then the performance Model 3. Do you guys have any information on this?

He should put them side by side and try it out. Then buy the P3D.

 

[Skryll]

I test drove mine home after taking delivery.

I still keep test driving every chance I get, 9.3k miles since january

 

[tinm]

They're measuring noise on social media. :eyeroll:

Also, note that Twitter says it deleted over 77 million accounts in the past few months. Sure, they were supposedly all bots, but I bet a small number of them were bots going on and on about Tesla a large number of times.

Plus, it's summer. In my experience working at consumer web companies, lots of activity drops off when schools & universities get out. Worst is July.

Plus... I could go on. The GS "analysis" sounds pretty desperate to me. My conclusion is GS doesn't know s***.

 

[ggr]

Tesla's Virtual Power Plant test in South Australia going well...
Tesla builds case for 250MW virtual power plant after first trial success