General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Yggdrasill]

With current market cap and current SP. If market cap goes to 100B and EM gets another 1%, what will the SP be after dilution?

The SP at 100B with the current share count would be $591.7. After Musk exercises the options it should still be at $591.7, because Musk's compensation will be well known and priced in.

But I assume that wasn't the answer you were looking for. If the compensation hadn't already been priced in, I would calculate like this:

$100B + (1.69M * $350.02) = $100.5915B

$100.5915B / (169M + 1.69M) = $589.3

So the SP would go from $591.7 to $589.3.

 

[ggr]

Mod: bunch of posts (including mine) moved to snippiness. --ggr.

 

[elasalle]

The SP at 100B with the current share count would be $591.7. After Musk exercises the options it should still be at $591.7, because Musk's compensation will be well known and priced in.

But I assume that wasn't the answer you were looking for. If the compensation hadn't already been priced in, I would calculate like this:

$100B + (1.69M * $350.02) = $100.5915B

$100.5915B / (169M + 1.69M) = $589.3

So the SP would go from $591.7 to $589.3.

Thanks, for my Jan 19's I will take that anytime.

this is a lot better than CEO's who are handed out Golden Parachutes for nothing.

 

[RobStark]

None of that matters simply because any money he does receive he’ll use to continue his plans for humanity. He’s not going to take any money and hoard it, buy an island, buy a yacht, buy Kobe beef, etc...

Everybody on the planet should be saying take my money, Elon, and do what you do.

The Musk Clan could eat Kobe beef everyday and it would not take material resources away from transitioning humanity to sustainable production and consumption of energy nor making humanity a multiplanetary species.

 

[kbM3]

I would add (am adding) the combination of your first and last points. Tesla is (about to be) good at making lots of cars with high (is 30% high?) margins. The moat of efficient internal (no lost mark up) battery pack manufacturing is a huge factor in being able to do that in the world of EVs.

I see battery pack cost as a declining (draining?) moat.

Example: Tesla maintains a 50% advantage in pack costs.

When packs were $300/kWh this was a $15k advantage for a 100 kWh pack.
When packs are $100/kWh this advantage will only be $7.5k.

 

[Lessmog]

Thanks, for my Jan 19's I will take that anytime.

this is a lot better than CEO's who are handed out Golden Parachutes for nothing.

I can think of a few Leaders who deserve a lead parachute ... no names, no drill

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 13 minutes ago: Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)'s New Compensation Pushes Elon Musk To Focus On Profitability, Baird Says

Baird views the compensation plan favorably, considering both the payroll and profitability implications of the terms.

“This is one of the first times TSLA has provided long-term profitability targets, and we think shares would appreciate significantly if TSLA were to achieve its adjusted EBITDA milestones, although not necessarily to a $650 billion market cap," Kallo said.

So not only will Tesla retain its critical leader, but it will also increase shareholder value as it inches toward profitability, according to Baird.

 

[mongo]

I see battery pack cost as a declining (draining?) moat.

Example: Tesla maintains a 50% advantage in pack costs.

When packs were $300/kWh this was a $15k advantage for a 100 kWh pack.
When packs are $100/kWh this advantage will only be $7.5k.

Pack cost is raw materials + processing. If we assume common sourcing, then there is a small advantage in bulk purchase. Tesla's investment in automation should keep them ahead in processing cost, so they will have more net profit per pack than others at same price point. As you mentioned, as all makers improve efficiency, the price point will be reduced and so will the $/car differential.

 

[Gerardf]

Static fire of FH. No RUD.

Start @ 28 minutes.


Edit : And one more One more (closer and better sound)

Twitter


Edit : better angle

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - 14 minutes ago: This ETF shows how you can pick stocks for rapid growth while doing good

 

[elasalle]

Wall Street mood cools after Wilbur Ross comments on China looks like this is what led to overall market dip

 

[kbM3]

Rob Mauer had an interesting take on the reason for the relatively low non-market cap incentive goals. Basically, they allow Elon to hit the market cap with a very high growth rate.

TechCast Daily – Podcasts covering tech — currently Tesla, Inc

 

[MitchJi]

Thank you for the clarification.

Then the question becomes, "Are you okay with handing EM $1B if the company only gets to $100B market cap and stays there?"

If Elon is happy then I’m happy !

 

[Bobfitz1]

I believe Tesla is partnering again with Panasonic for PV cell to put into their glass roofing. Elon Musk’s Solar Partnership Strategy Doesn't Look So Crazy Anymore
The PV cells vs modules (panels) Solar Panel (module) makers buy the cells and assemble panels & electronics and then installers purchase and install at homes (some add storage - (Power Wall type products). (Utility scale projects?) See below to get some idea of how large and complex this industry is. Seems most panels are assembled in China - where are most cells made?
Here is wikipedia, but some of the data is from 2011 to about 2015. But does show complexity of suppliers world wide.

I'd conjecture that nearly all PV cells made in China by various companies are then assembled into panels by them for sale.
It would not be surprising if Panasonic's panel assembly line at GF2 is finished and operational while the cell production is only now just beginning to ramp. If true, then for some period, Panasonic may be importing cells they've manufactured in Asia to supply the panel line, until such time as GF2 cells are being produced in sufficient quantities to supply both Solar Roof shingles and the PV panels. Until then there are greater profits to be made by using GF2 produced cells for Tesla shingles than in Panasonic GF2 produced panels.

 

[EinSV]

This was exact what was said today in:

TechCast Daily – Podcasts covering tech — currently Tesla, Inc

Interesting -- thanks for the link.... He has a similar take to mine although he emphasizes the speed of reaching $175B revenue while I think maximizing revenue growth is not nearly as important as continuing to innovate and keep the pipeline filled with compelling products that signal continuing rapid growth. Same basic idea though of maintaining the characteristics of a high growth company even at a much higher market cap.

 

[Bobfitz1]

worth reading: Bob Lutz And Tesla: The Difference Between The Old Economy And The New

Good article but shouldn't obscure Lutz's primary motivation for commenting negatively on Tesla. There is robust demand in the media for hits on Tesla. Lutz at 85 is desperate to add a few more minutes to his 15 minutes of fame. To the extent of trashing the reputation he worked hard to earn in his salad days.

 

[Bobfitz1]

None of that matters simply because any money he does receive he’ll use to continue his plans for humanity. He’s not going to take any money and hoard it, buy an island, buy a yacht, buy Kobe beef, etc...
Everybody on the planet should be saying take my money, Elon, and do what you do.

Correct except he will spend a portion of this comp to buy a nice island with a dormant volcano on it. He'll use a BFR to land in volcano for visits.

 

[Gerardf]

Wall Street mood cools after Wilbur Ross comments on China looks like this is what led to overall market dip

First line in the article

“Wilbur Ross called China’s 2025 technology strategy a “direct threat”.

Oh my.....

Maybe the US govenment should fire less scientists, stop encouraging and subsidizing old industries like coal and oil and instead of obstructing innovation and growth in clean energy start encouraging it.
Heavy investing in clean and cheap energy is what a big part of what “China’s tech strategy” is.

In China there very strong push there to EV’s, energy storage and solar / wind while the USA (and to some extend also Europe) give them a very big headstart by delaying the switchover in order to protect their traditional industries.

That is the real threat (just venting, as all readers here already know that).

 

[DurandalAI]

I'd conjecture that nearly all PV cells made in China by various companies are then assembled into panels by them for sale.
It would not be surprising if Panasonic's panel assembly line at GF2 is finished and operational while the cell production is only now just beginning to ramp. If true, then for some period, Panasonic may be importing cells they've manufactured in Asia to supply the panel line, until such time as GF2 cells are being produced in sufficient quantities to supply both Solar Roof shingles and the PV panels. Until then there are greater profits to be made by using GF2 produced cells for Tesla shingles than in Panasonic GF2 produced panels.

Greentech Media has reported that the 2.x GW of cell importation allowance without tarrifs will likely cover existing manufacturing of panels from cells in the US. As a result some or most of Tesla’s GF2 production should be covered by that for a while.

 

[JRP3]

Had an email from Tesla today with a link to a petition to allow more stores in NY: Sign your name to lift the cap on Tesla!