MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
You mean it’s a skill that might allow them to become a competitor to Tesla. Because right now they are not even in the same ballpark.
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I would think slightly lower because some VINS were probably scrapped or skipped for whatever reason, right? So maybe around 2,500 produced?
dc_h
Active Member
Inside EV’s reporting December/ Q4 USA deliveries.
7430 Model S sold in Q4 and 6025 Model X sold in Q4, for a total of 13,455. If Europe really is on track for 9,000, which seems very attainable, we only need 5000 in China and ROW for 27,000.
Regardless, for today, Model 3 sales will as likely as not, will cause a short term drop in the stock. Not likely that deliveries are over 2000 and it seems a lot of targets were not updated following the earnings report.
I think the only thing that will push the stock up is reported 1000 weekly rate, or surprising production number.
7430 Model S sold in Q4 and 6025 Model X sold in Q4, for a total of 13,455. If Europe really is on track for 9,000, which seems very attainable, we only need 5000 in China and ROW for 27,000.
Regardless, for today, Model 3 sales will as likely as not, will cause a short term drop in the stock. Not likely that deliveries are over 2000 and it seems a lot of targets were not updated following the earnings report.
I think the only thing that will push the stock up is reported 1000 weekly rate, or surprising production number.
there was an official Tesla letter posted on TMC(can't find it) regarding M3 2018 VINs. IIRC, it said starting Dec 22nd it would start using 2018 VINs? or something of that nature?
Anyone has link to that post? tried searching for it but couldn't find it?
flankspeed8
Member
If they were truly loosing $10,000 per car sold, then you would see this only being sold in the CARB states and it would be by definition a compliance car. Clearly it is not. They can't keep them in stock here in the Twin Cities and many dealers do not have any in stock. They sell as soon as they arrive.
ya thanks.
i too just found the references in reddit and twitter
Model 3 VIN decoder posted for MY2018 (NHTSA) • r/teslamotors
Bozi Tatarevic on Twitter
If this is true, then last week of Production will not be covered by 2017 VINs....
On a side note, after readin that piece, I *really* wish they hadn't attached these stupid and misleading marketing names like "deep learning" and "neural net" to their tensor processing units.
No, myusername. The short-sellers were suggesting that it was due to an *unsolvable internal production bottleneck*, something like the failed battery pack automation line only worse -- not a supplier bottleneck.
He obviously turned the heat down in order to hypermile, but wasn't being entirely honest about it yet because he was trying to get clicks for his big article. (Edit: yep.)
I've told people here about my Model S "trial by ice" Michigan trip through weather this cold AND an ice storm... one thing I never worried about was cabin heat. There's no chance that Tesla would put in a weaker Model 3 heater, given their Norway testing.
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This is a good point, but it is my understanding that the $10,000 loss per car includes all of the one-time costs (R&D, tooling, etc.) in addition to the incremental costs. So the incremental loss per additional car sold may be much lower or even break-even. Clearly the biggest regulatory benefits come from selling the Bolt in the CARB states (which is where the Bolt went on sale first), but there is also benefit outside the CARB states because of the fleetwide fuel efficiency standards. This is also apparently the reason the Bolt is sold in Europe, to meet the company-wide CO2 emission standards (offsetting the other cars they sell). The quote below from the Reuter's article I linked in my last post is clearly indicating that the Bolt (Ampera-e) is a compliance car in Europe (I add bold for emphasis):
"Among the unpleasant surprises was a CO2 compliance plan that relied on significant sales of the Opel Ampera-e electric car, a U.S. import based on GM’s Chevrolet Bolt, at a loss approaching 10,000 euros per vehicle, two sources said.
“Their technical solution was economically unviable and would have led to enormous losses,” said one. “So the first thing you do is drop that (product) line, but then the fleet emissions explode.”
Under PSA, Opel has already suspended Norwegian sales of the Ampera-e - which account for most of the model’s 1,500 deliveries to date - and increased European pricing by as much as 5,700 euros."
“Their technical solution was economically unviable and would have led to enormous losses,” said one. “So the first thing you do is drop that (product) line, but then the fleet emissions explode.”
Under PSA, Opel has already suspended Norwegian sales of the Ampera-e - which account for most of the model’s 1,500 deliveries to date - and increased European pricing by as much as 5,700 euros."
I would phrase it as "it's one key skill that may allow GM to survive".
I still think it's unclear what sort of "loss" is being taken on the Bolt; it may be a fully capital-amortized loss, it may be an operating loss -- I personally doubt that they were referring to a true marginal loss on each car made, though they might have been. However, if they can't scale up production enough to cover factory operations overhead, it doesn't matter if the Bolt makes a marginal profit... and whether GM can theoretically scale it up enough or not (I think they can't because they've locked themselves into bottlenecks), they *are not* scaling it up enough.
It's clear that top GM management is still approaching it as a regulatory compliance car; the attitude is the problem.
GM's numbers on the Bolt PROVE that the #1 Bear reason for why Tesla will fail is WRONG! They keep saying that the established automakers have the money, the knowledge, and the factories to crush Tesla as soon as they start making EVs. Well, GM had a NINE MONTH head start on the Model 3. After a full year of production, they sold less than 24,000 vehicles (which is less than 1,000/week production currently). I predict that Tesla will produce at least 250,000 3s this year. So even after starting 9 months after GM, Tesla will sell at least TEN TIMES as many cars as GM (who had a head start). It is shocking that the shorts can look at this information, and STILL believe that Tesla will fail. As for me, I bought even more stock today. 
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Can't find the original Bloomberg interview.
Here is a insideevs article reporting on Q1 conference call.
Elon Musk Talks Incentives, Explains Why Chevy Bolt Is CARB Credit Play
" Elon Musk
“But the CARB credits are only effective at a production rate of about 20,000 to 30,000 vehicles a year. So that’s why you’ll see, mark my words, it’s not going to be any higher than that for the Chevy Bolt. That’s on order of 25,000 units a year, or 0.10% of our initial production rate for the Model 3, or 0.05% of what Model 3 will be next year.”
And interestingly that’s precisely the figure we’ve seen tossed around before by supplier sources. Here’s what we reported 2-plus years ago:
“The supplier sources who need significant lead time to prepare for production say they are being told that General Motors expects to sell 25,000-30,000 Bolts per year once production is underway.” "
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Remember GM fanboi being butt chapped when reports came out 2017 Bolt EV production was capped at 30k? GM spokesmen said they could produce 50k and hinted maybe 60k could be reached. Allegedly they expanded production capacity after shutting down factory making Bolt EV.
GM's numbers on the Bolt PROVE that the #1 Bear reason for why Tesla will fail is WRONG! They keep saying that the established automakers have the money, the knowledge, and the factories to crush Tesla as soon as they start making EVs. Well, GM had a NINE MONTH head start on the Model 3. After a full year of production, they sold less than 24,000 vehicles (which is less than 1,000/week production currently). I predict that Tesla will produce at least 250,000 3s this year. So even after starting 9 months after GM, Tesla will sell at least TEN TIMES as many cars as GM (who had a head start). It is shocking that the shorts can look at this information, and STILL believe that Tesla will fail. As for me, I bought even more stock today.
Yes re what you’re pointing out. Re “shocking,” for many who say bearish things it may well be about attempting to have others believe something than believing it themselves. This would be similar to Toyota and Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles. Does Toyota really believe they have a big future for consumer vehicles or do they feel as if they’d like the public to believe its too soon to declare/commit to BEVs as the future.
Sure, if the factory is only open half the time, you need to produce at twice the rate to maintain target volume.
I believe a lot of those Bolt sales were leases from people who realized they needed something to drive while they waited 2 years for their Model 3. In 2019, when Tesla has made it through the pre-orders and you can get a Model 3 quickly, Bolt sales will drop from 2018 levels. No way anyone with 2 eyes and a brain buys the slower, uglier, Bolt (that you can't easily go on trips with) over a 3.
What's really funny is how next quarter the Model 3 may just do as much in a quarter as the current annual total of Model S was.
About time too. I'm just sick of listening to how the Bolt has "outsold" the Model 3.
About time too. I'm just sick of listening to how the Bolt has "outsold" the Model 3.
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