Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Yeah, it's not happening before 2020 in cars. Probably not before 2022.

In semis... the competitors are actually more serious. They're not quite up to Tesla standards, but I'm not willing to presume that they won't be "good enough" by 2020. It's not that different from buses, which is a market Tesla has already ceded. If Tesla is true to form on communications failures, the Semi could actually be a flop.

I mean, if this happens, if Tesla is clearly outcompeted by other companies -- great for the electrification of transport. Mission accomplished! But not so great for Tesla stockholders.
Semimwill have a separate support solution. Could still be a flop for customer service, but this should have its own call centers customer delivery and tracking systems. Partnering on fleet tracking could also be part of the sales and fleet value proposition. Solutions sold through third parties could be consolidated and built into a logistics dashboard. For big shippers that data can be worth more than the trucks, if they weren’t Tesla trucks.
 
That’s a people problem not a communication problem.

The person who knew about the car being damaged simply didn’t do their job for whatever reason; they aren’t old enough/don’t have the life experience required to be in a position of notifying people when things are not hunky dory. So a person who doesn’t know how to give bad news/deal with irate/upset customers whatever. A person passing the buck or waiting for someone else to do the hard part.

Beg to differ. It is a communication problem as whatever the Tesla employee's age/experience is it was his/her job to communicate with the client and he/she did not do it.
 
Did everybody else get a letter from Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP looking for a lead plaintiff in a class action law suit about the possibility of taking Tesla private? What I found most interesting is that it is about a lawsuit that has been filed but they say that Kessler Topaz Meltzer & Check, LLP have not filed a complaint in this matter. So does that mean they are trying to steal the thunder from the party that originally filed the suit?

They can stick their lawsuit where hurts.

I feel liking sticking their postage paid envelope to a box of rocks as an expression of how I feel about them.
 
To @neroden 's point about communication: Daily TSLA Trading Charts. From @madodel


They are going to have to do something about delivery communications. My wife's partner was in Boston visiting family for the weekend, but he had been told he had to pick up his Model 3 on Sunday from Devon, so even though he drove to Boston with his wife he was going to fly to Philly and then Uber to Devon for the pickup just because he has waited so long for his 3 he was afraid they'd give it to someone else. But when he called them Saturday he had to yell at them before they told him his 3 was damaged so it would be a couple more weeks before he would get his car. Someone should have called him to tell him the status of his delivery or at least have been honest when he called them before he had to escalate things. And he is someone my wife has never heard be angry or loud. This has to get fixed fast and they will soon have to start scaling up delivery service all over the world and hire competent people to work with customers.
Dedham, I could tell a story or two, neroden and madodel are spot on. Hopefully tesla china won't be this bad. Don't think they will put up with this over there.
 
  • Like
Reactions: neroden
Beg to differ. It is a communication problem as whatever the Tesla employee's age/experience is it was his/her job to communicate with the client and he/she did not do it.

You’re describing a person problem: not doing their job.

A communication problem is when two people are conversing and one or both can’t convey their thoughts in a manner the other can understand.
 
No, almost anyone regardless of competence or will can act like that if their management doesn't empower them to make decisions.

Tesla needs better systems in place to steer employees toward communicating better with customers (and each other).

The most talented communicators will overcome a bad system, and the worst communicators will manage to suck even in a great system. But the great middle will be reflective of the system they are in. And the frequency of bad (or missing) communication suggests that Tesla’s system needs a major overhaul.

My delayed (and still not complete) Model 3 delivery experience hasn’t featured good communication, even though I am doing everything I can to help them deliver a high-margin car before the end of the quarter. I don’t get the sense that the problem is the people I’m dealing with. The system seems to be breaking down somewhere behind them.
 
I am certain, from following the history of Tesla, that he hasn't really identified this as a need. He's made some super dumb statements (like "people should just call each other") which indicate that he doesn't see what the problem is (there's no decent org chart, nobody knows who they're supposed to call)
I disagree, and agree too.
Where I disagree is that it's a stupid idea. It's not, it's a description of Agile processes and flat organization. It works gloriously when it works. Everyone is happier, people are motivated, empowered, as this is a solution for 'Five Disfunctions of the Team', awesome book that is soooooo cheesy I can't recommend it without several paragraphs of disclaimers... @neroden, I think that without working in recently successful organizations that employ these models, I don't feel you can truly appreciate power of the model. But it doesn't remove the need for good management.

This is the culture I've been building in few organizations with more (or less) success, and what makes me happy to continue working, really, the only thing that still inspires me...

Where I agree with @neroden is that I feel Elon doesn't get how much effort it takes to nurture and build this culture. He seems to think that sending an email is enough to effect change, as if this is intellectual exercise. For most people it's emotional one, and it's a process. As a highly logical thinker, I don't think Elon can truly empathize with normal person and what they need to adopt these methods to its fullest. Having said that, from what I've seen, culture isn't too bad, they're halfway there, it just isn't great. You can say Tesla resembles Elon, utterly brilliant, yet disorganized, strained over too many distinct priorities, executing very well, but not great.
 
No, almost anyone regardless of competence or will can act like that if their management doesn't empower them to make decisions.

In the summer of 1957 I worked at Bethelehem Steel's Lackawanna plant at the hot strip mill. I reported directly to the Assistant Superintendent and once a week with the honchos of the Strip Mill management. One of my job's was bird dogging missed items. Before I started there were x items missed for the first time. For example, a cobble at the hot strip line where a slab of yellow hot ingot gets rammed into and then squeezed into rolls of a certain thickness. A cobble is when the strip of yellow and then red hot steal somehow gets stuck between the rollers or gets loose and flails about in a hundred foot hot dragon's tail writhing about the side of the mills striving to cut a man in two with each strke. Not a time to have lunch there. So mistakes happen in production at well established industries.

Next were items missed for the second time that week, much less than x. Next were items missed for the third time that week, and so on. (I remember at least three levels, there may have been more.) I spent much of my time going over work by clerks who handled these orders and reorders, all men. I don't ever remember confronting them, just being a pain in the ass reporting to the big bosses about speeding up customer reorders, etc.

My last day at work I reported a clean slate, no more missed reorders or some such great improvement, and was complemented for doing a good job. I reported I was getting married the next week and all hands smiled and congratulated me. The next week all hell must have broken out because with the appeal of legitimate sex, etc., and because essentially I'm a lazy sort, I'd laid off working assiduously in the last week before my report.

For some of the same reasons the marriage didn't work out either, nor two more reorders for different reasons. After 25 years of bachelorhood, just fifteen years ago I discovered a taste of Nirvana which is confirmed each day since.

You think Tesla has problems serving the public? All you really hear about are the frequently missed items in a much more complicated chain than producing sheet metal. Look at the shenanigans in Washington these days. Now even chaos is getting a better rep than reality.
 
Last edited:
Any updates regarding phase out of Tax credits? Thought there was some kinda bill doing the rounds in congress?

The tax bill a year ago was going to eliminate the tax credit, but it was saved when rich GOP donors who wanted Teslas complained. Then there was a proposed bill from some Democrats to extend the tax credit for a set number of years, but last I heard it went nowhere.

I really don't understand the logistics surge on the Model 3 for the end of quarter? Supposedly production has been running in the 3000-5000 week range for nearly 3 months. Yet only this week there is real delivery pressure. Why were these cars not delivered earlier?

Because it's the nature of a publicly traded company in the US, Tesla needs to deliver as many cars as possible within one quarter. They cram a lot of US production into the end of each quarter and try to deliver those cars within the quarter when they were built. It's a stupid numbers game Elon was trying to get away from when he tried to take the company private. Tesla quality goes down in those end of the quarter cars and it really isn't good for the company long term, but it keeps the stockholders off their back.

There has been a lot of deliveries in the US all quarter this quarter. The middle of the quarter delivery volumes are probably more like end of quarter volumes a year ago and this en of quarter is just insane. This picture was posted to the PDX Tesla forum today

DnzXwnnXkAA1WEj.jpg

That's the main highway that runs up the west coast of the US in southern Oregon. Those cars are headed to Seattle, WA and Portland, OR. When I took delivery of my car in mid-2016 they said they were getting a few car carriers full of cars a week. I've never seen more than 1 truckload of Teslas at once.
 
They cram a lot of US production into the end of each quarter and try to deliver those cars within the quarter when they were built.

I was specifically talking about M3. None of them need to go overseas. Production hasn't ramped significantly between end of June and now. Yet, delivery hell only hits now? Some 50% of M3 production goes to California. There is no reason for the gap between factory gated and customer delivered to be more than one week on those cars. For the rest of the US maybe two weeks, allowing for shipping. If the current organisation isn't equipped to deal with this kind of volume, why was there no issue early July when 11k cars in transit plus a production of 4-5k week hit them? And if it hit them at that point, why wait untill the last two weekends of this quarter to try to remedy them by inviting owners to become employees? Or having to resort to build your own car carriers?!?!? I mean, how many of those things are there in the US?
 
How would you know this? I wondered the same thing, and fhe only rational explanation I can come up with is that production rate jumped only recently. Perhaps the recent paint color changes are what opened up the floodgates.

We were at 5000/wk by the end of June with 11 000 cars in transit. How much do you think it must've jumped to create this unprecedented flood? Is that really believable? And what to do with Electrek (usually, very well sourced in all matters Tesla) reporting with credible numbers that there is no big jump of production late in the quarter?
 
It seems likely that Tesla has had a bottleneck, like battery assembly. So they decided to slow down general assembly, meanwhile unused batteries where accumulated. Then they improved battery assembly, so then they had increased battery production and some spare batteries. Now at the end of Q3 they let general assembly go full upgraded speed to see where the bottle neck is next, with higher battery production and some extra batteries. Would not be suprised if we hear that Tesla have been making 8000 Model3/week for a week, even though they only have capacity for 6000batteries/week sustained until the new GF1 lines will again increase production.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: Snerruc
We were at 5000/wk by the end of June with 11 000 cars in transit. How much do you think it must've jumped to create this unprecedented flood? Is that really believable? And what to do with Electrek (usually, very well sourced in all matters Tesla) reporting with credible numbers that there is no big jump of production late in the quarter?

At end of June they did a burst test of 5000 that week, but that was certainly not a sustained rate. Sustained rate at the time was certainly closer to 3000/wk.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.