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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Question:

The SEC agreement requires Tesla oversight over Elon’s communications. Twitter for example, someone needs to actually approve his tweets. This seems really easy, and once in place should be entirely unnoticeable minus the good old days of fun post-midnight tweet sessions I always used to enjoy. Hypothetically...

However, this oversight must also be done during quarterly conference calls.

How will this be achieved?

Time delayed responses, like a super bowl halftime show?

No more Elon on the calls?

The pre-approval process only applies to written communications, so they don't have to pre-approve what he says during the shareholder calls.
 
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So, anyway, for September, the Model 3 is up to
-- third-best-selling passenger car in the US (up from #5)
-- 13th-best-selling vehicle in the US (up from #21)

September 2018 YTD U.S. Passenger Car Sales Rankings – Best-Selling Cars In America
September 2018 – The Best-Selling Vehicles In America – Every Vehicle Ranked | GCBC

In October I expect the Model 3 to outsell the Toyota Tacoma and Jeep Cherokee. By December it should be outselling the Honda Civic, Honda Accord, and Chevy Equinox. I'll be a little harder to outsell the Toyota Camry and become #1 passenger car in the US, but I think Tesla has decent odds of doing so by December.
 
March 24:
How about this: Model 3 ASP in the second half of 2018 may be more than $60,000.

Since Standard Range is now a 2019 story, and P (10% take rate) and D (50%) are around the corner, as well as already popular EAP (80% take rate) and possible FSD-exclusive features in the coming months with the new-and-improved Karpathy-magic neural networks (50% take rate in 2H18 but possibly as high as 80% with a killer feature like even highway-only Level 3 at $3,000), including wheels and premium paint and delivery:

OPTIONS
Enhanced Autopilot: $5,000; 80% take rate
Full Self-Driving: $3,000; 80% take rate as exclusive features roll out
Premium Upgrades Package: $5,000; 50% take rate
Premium Wheels: $1,500 to $4,500; 50% take rate with $2,000 average
Paint: $1,000 to $1,500; 80% take rate with $1,200 average

MODELS
Long Range: $44,000 - 45%
Long Range with Dual: $49,000 - 45%
Performance with Dual: $75,000 - 10%

ASP without options: $49,350
ASP of options: $10,860
ASP: $60,210 excluding $1,000 delivery

Model 3 ASP may be more than $60,000 in 2H18.

Now consider that the ultra-bearish UBS analyst had estimated Model 3 breakeven (not COGS but EBIT-level so including R&D and SG&A expenses) at $41,000 (page 45 of 95) even using $160/kWh battery cost estimate, which is just dumb. His other dumb assumptions include D&A per unit and Warranty Provision per unit, which should be combined $3,000 per unit lower, but to be conservative, let's use his bear-level dumb assumptions.

$60,000 ASP in 2H18 - $41,000 COGS, R&D, SG&A = $19,000 EBIT per Model 3

31.66% EBIT margin in 2H18.

That's better than Apple.
April 16:
All pieces are now in place for $100 Brent this year.

Tesla can increase Model 3 ASP to $60,000, which I believe is the key to profitability in 3Q18.
Now:
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Looking at all the charts showing the steep climb of Model 3 in terms of Market share and Margin.
Then looking at the SP ...one gets a sense of disconnect.

How this stock is not the darling of the market is a real head scratcher....it does lead one to the tin foil hat thinking of collusion and manipulation.

It's no longer "tin foil thinking" - manipulation is obvious. The disconnect you pointed out is stark and must be criminally investigated.
 
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It's no longer "tin foil thinking" - collusion and manipulation are obvious. The disconnect you pointed out is stark.
I am always hesitant to go down that rd. I'm a Occam's Razor kind of person...however the money available to the industry's effected by Tesla are very deep.

If after Q4 the SP has not rebounded I will be flat out convinced that collusion of the sort folks talk about here is true.
Because the other side of the coin is true as well....the people who can move this market are Greedy SOB's and if there is money to be made they will jump on real fast.
 
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I am always hesitant to go down that rd. I'm a Occam's Razor kind of person...however the money available to the industry's effected by Tesla are very deep.

If after Q4 the SP has not rebounded I will be flat out convinced that collusion of the sort folks talk about here is true.
Because the other side of the coin is true as well....the people who can move this market are Greedy SOB's and if there is money to be made they will jump on real fast.

Gathering disagree here and hope someone refute this:

It understandable the demand in U.S. will drop somewhat near the end of Q4 due to tax credit phasing out. And over the ocean delivery takes long time. So Q4 results maybe no better than Q3. The bright side is width production humming along and delivery pressure eased a little cost will drop.
 
Gathering disagree here and hope someone refute this:

It understandable the demand in U.S. will drop somewhat near the end of Q4 due to tax credit phasing out.
That's not how it works. There tends to be a boom in demand just as the tax credit phaseout approaches. Due to the three-stage phaseout, we should see be lulls in demand in January 2019, July 2019, and (the big one) January 2020. Booms should be in December 2018, June 2018, and December 2020.

And over the ocean delivery takes long time. So Q4 results maybe no better than Q3. The bright side is width production humming along and delivery pressure eased a little cost will drop.
More cars will be produced in Q4 than Q3, pretty much guaranteed; there was a lot of debugging downtime in Q3, and Q4 should be able to sustain an actual 5000/week average -- probably significantly higher. Cost structure should be down from Q3 as the lines are debugged. With a proper understanding of the delivery issues, deliveries should be able to keep up with growth. Perhaps most importantly, there will be a lot less capital costs in Q4 than Q3; while there was an effort to cut capital costs in Q3, there was a lot of work necessary to do the debugging, and there's going to be less necessary in Q4.

It's a foregone conclusion that Q4 financial results will be better than Q3. Nothing short of sabotage or a meteor strike could prevent it.
 
Cannyou take a look at the charge port of the Model 3 to see if it has CCS?

I will - but I read somewhere that the two Model 3 there are US versions and questions on CCS were not answered. But I´ll try again!

My theory with CCS: If they´d announce now that the Model 3 in Europe will have CCS, that´s another reason for potential buyers to wait and not buy S/X. Also, if (and it is the only thing that makes sense in the long term IMHO) the 3 will have CCS, S/X must have it too at the same time. But let´s continue this discussion over here: EU Market Situation and Outlook
 
Ars Technica writes that SpaceX is getting slimed as well. So will this BS never go away?

My experience with Apple says it won't. Apple is even more shorted than Tesla right now. Despite it being a $1T company, Wall Street detests it. Utterly idiotic hit pieces continue unabated. Have you heard that the new iPhone XS is suffering from a lack of demand?
 
Not to change the topic, but some may be interested here in a work around for weak electrical systems for home charging. Just today we received inspector's approval for black box which notes ability of circuit breaker to accommodate load to 50 amp connector to charge our recently delivered M3 and if ok, permits juice to flow. First installation in Sacramento. I charged the car to 81% the other day. Steady flow of 28 miles charge per hour, steady 32 amp flow. Piece of cake and our municipal utility, SMUD offers $599 rebate and 1.5 cent discount to charge between midnight to 6:00 a.m. Sweet.

The electrical contractor wanted a press release, enclosed. Note: No discount for interview. I said I was a part-time moderator not as noted in release. Also, this may spread the word about fixing up old houses. (Ours is all-electric, built in 1976. The local utility had been horns-wallowed into building a nuke plant when the board was dominated by PG&E placeholders. We fixed that, eventually.)

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Bill Horbaly
Connected Technology
CSLB# 996560
916.824.1800

OCTOBER 3, 2018

Connected Technology Brings the EV Revolution to Sacramento

ROCKLIN, CA -- Today, for the first time in Sacramento, a new product was installed that allows electric vehicle (EV) owners, and potential EV owners, to overcome a previously daunting and expensive obstacle; the dreaded panel upgrade.

“When I started driving, I couldn’t imagine a day when gas would be over $1 per gallon. But now, I imagine a day when gas stations will be as rare as a blacksmith. The EV revolution has begun.” This is the opinion of not only Bill Horbaly, CEO of Connected Technology in Rocklin, CA, but of many dreamers, engineers, environmentalists, and now, the common man.

To take a complicated matter and state it simply, the size of the electrical panel on your house determines how much electricity is available for the things you want to power. Often, smaller and older homes don’t have a large enough panel to support the high electrical demands of an EV charger. Without an energy management product like the new DCC-10, the only other option for high speed EV charging at home is an expensive upgrade of the electrical panel to support more power.

The Campus Commons neighborhood of Sacramento contains homes with small electrical panels making it difficult to safely add a high power EV charger. DCC Technology’s DCC-10, allows the high electrical requirement of an EV charger to be safely added to a small panel like those found in Campus Commons. It does this by monitoring the amount of electricity being used in the home and only allowing EV charging to occur only when the electrical usage is low enough to be safe. This works well for most homes as electric vehicles are usually charged at night when little electricity is being used.

Richard Hughes, retired professor, Campus Commons resident, and Tesla Motors Club Moderator, is the first in Sacramento to use the DCC-10 to safely facilitate the installation of an EV charger for his brand new Tesla Model 3. Hughes hired Connected Technology for the job, a local electrical contractor recommended by Tesla for EV installations. “Connected Technology cared enough to explain the issues and offer a solution with the DCC-10,” says Hughes. Hughes, now in his 80s, joined the EV revolution with a recent purchase of a bright red Tesla Model 3. “Their service has been much appreciated.”

The DCC-10, and DCC-9 for condominium applications, expertly installed by Connected Technology, is about half the cost of an electrical panel upgrade, providing access for many, with more to join the EV revolution.

ABOUT CONNECTED TECHNOLOGY
Connected Technology was created to bring the safety, convenience, and energy savings of Smart Home Technology to Sacramento home owners. Uniquely qualified with CSLB licenses in Heating and Air, Electrical and Low Voltage Controls, as well as a passion for the latest tech, Connected Technology provides services from complete smart home upgrades to simple electrical repairs. Connected Technology mixes care for customers with high tech abilities earning their well known reputation for “Celebrated Customer Service.” More information: connected-technology.com

###
 
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According to the NYT (I haven't checked the actual settlement), the SEC settlement "requires" Musk to buy $20 million of TSLA stock, presumably on the open market.

If this is true... well, throw me in that briar patch. Musk was in a position where buying more stock could have gotten him in trouble (accusations of manipulating the stock price down to buy cheaply), but if it's in the SEC settlement, why then he's free and clear to buy more stock. And obviously he can value the company as well as we can; he wants to buy more while it's cheap. Wow.
 
According to the NYT (I haven't checked the actual settlement), the SEC settlement "requires" Musk to buy $20 million of TSLA stock, presumably on the open market.

If this is true... well, throw me in that briar patch. Musk was in a position where buying more stock could have gotten him in trouble (accusations of manipulating the stock price down to buy cheaply), but if it's in the SEC settlement, why then he's free and clear to buy more stock. And obviously he can value the company as well as we can; he wants to buy more while it's cheap. Wow.

I don't see that being true.
From the SEC site:SEC.gov | Elon Musk Settles SEC Fraud Charges; Tesla Charged With and Resolves Securities Law Charge
Musk and Tesla will each pay a separate $20 million penalty. The $40 million in penalties will be distributed to harmed investors under a court-approved process.
 
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I thought I had heard the $20M of Tesla stock thing as his own thing that he was doing to indirectly compensate Tesla for their own fine (Tesla can't accept it, but Tesla also isn't actually receiving the payment and therefore doesn't have to, stock sellers are), and it had nothing to do with the settlement, but I can't remember where I read that.

My memory too. Stated at end of original NYT article?
 
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